Should I Buy AII? AII 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy American Integrity Insurance Group Inc (AII) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

18.290

1 Day change

-0.44%

52 Week Range

26.360

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and there is no Intellectia buy signal to justify immediate entry.
Price (~~18.36) is sitting just above near-term support (S1 ~18.226); risk/reward is not compelling until it reclaims the pivot (~~18.902) and holds.
Fundamentals and Street view are strong, but the current tape suggests downside/weakness can persist into the next days/weeks; better to wait for a clear reversal or post-earnings confirmation.
Politician/congress activity: No recent congress trading data available; no event-driven support from that angle.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) signals the primary trend is down.
RSI (6): ~35.5, near the lower end of neutral (mildly oversold), suggesting selling pressure has been heavy but not yet a clear reversal signal.
MACD: Histogram slightly above zero (+0.0187) but positively contracting, implying upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
Key levels: Pivot ~18.902 is the first reclaim level for bulls; support S1 ~18.226 (then S2 ~17.808). Resistance R1 ~19.578.
Pattern/near-term odds (model based on similar candlesticks): 80% chance of ~-0.68% next day, ~-0.96% next week, ~-4.44% next month (bearish bias).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Positive Catalysts

- Strong last reported quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue +33.27% YoY; Net Income +204.77% YoY; EPS +103.03% YoY.
- Analysts are constructive with raised price targets (into the high 20s) and reiterated Outperform ratings.
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 after hours (potential catalyst if results/guide beat expectations).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical setup remains bearish (downtrend indicated by moving averages); momentum is not improving convincingly (MACD contracting).
- Price is below the pivot level (~18.902), indicating it has not yet regained a more bullish near-term regime.
- No proprietary Intellectia buy signals (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax) to support an immediate, high-conviction entry.
- Provided news flow appears unrelated to AII (silver/mining-focused items), offering no clear event-driven catalyst for the stock in the near term.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 62.026M, up 33.27% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Net income: 13.163M, up 204.77% YoY (very strong profitability improvement).
EPS: 0.67, up 103.03% YoY (strong per-share earnings growth).
Gross margin: listed as 0 (likely a data/field issue for an insurer; not interpreted as true 0% margin).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Two firms (Keefe Bruyette; Citizens JMP) raised price targets (to $29 from $26; to $28 from $26) and reiterated Outperform ratings in Nov 2025.
Wall Street pros: Expect organic growth opportunities in Florida and continued benefit from favorable conditions in the Florida residential property insurance market.
Wall Street cons: Despite bullish targets, the stock’s current price action/technical trend is not confirming the optimism yet, increasing the risk that the market continues to fade near-term rallies.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AII stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AII is 28 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 29 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 18.370

Low

Averages

High

Current: 18.370

Low

Averages

High

Keefe Bruyette

Outperform

maintain

$26 -> $29

AI Analysis

2025-11-18

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$26 -> $29

AI Analysis

2025-11-18

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on American Integrity Insurance to $29 from $26 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. American Integrity Insurance is well-positioned to grow organically in Florida as it is under- penetrated in middle-aged homes and the Tri-County region, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Citizens JMP

Outperform

maintain

$26 -> $28

2025-11-17

Reason

Citizens JMP

Price Target

$26 -> $28

2025-11-17

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Citizens JMP raised the firm's price target on American Integrity Insurance to $28 from $26 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. American Integrity Insurance, which reported strong Q3 results, is well-positioned to take advantage of the growing Florida residential property insurance market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects the company will continue to take advantage of the favorable conditions in Florida.

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AII Should I Buy

AII Should I Buy

Should You Buy American Integrity Insurance Group Inc (AII) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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