AAL Valuation

American Airlines Group Inc

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13.150

+0.15(1.154%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

AAL Relative Valuation

AAL's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, AAL is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) is now in the Undervalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 0.16 is considered Undervalued compared with the five-year average of 6.86. The fair price of American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) is between 16.89 to 29.47 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 13.15 USD , American Airlines Group Inc is Undervalued By 22.16%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

16.89-29.47

Current Price：13.15

22.16%

Undervalued

13.95

Trailing

Forward

6.51

EV/EBITDA

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) has a current EV/EBITDA of 6.51. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 8.42. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -24.09, Undervalued between -24.09 and -7.83, Fairly Valued between 24.68 and -7.83, Overvalued between 24.68 and 40.94, and Strongly Overvalued above 40.94. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 6.51 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

16.76

EV/EBIT

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) has a current EV/EBIT of 16.76. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 4.08. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -41.79, Undervalued between -41.79 and -18.86, Fairly Valued between 27.02 and -18.86, Overvalued between 27.02 and 49.96, and Strongly Overvalued above 49.96. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 16.76 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

0.16

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) has a current PS of 0.16. The 5-year average PS is 0.22. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.03, Undervalued between 0.03 and 0.13, Fairly Valued between 0.32 and 0.13, Overvalued between 0.32 and 0.41, and Strongly Overvalued above 0.41. The current Forward PS of 0.16 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

1.44

P/OCF

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) has a current P/OCF of 1.44. The 5-year average P/OCF is 1.63. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -26.94, Undervalued between -26.94 and -12.65, Fairly Valued between 15.92 and -12.65, Overvalued between 15.92 and 30.20, and Strongly Overvalued above 30.20. The current Forward P/OCF of 1.44 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

2.07

P/FCF

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) has a current P/FCF of 2.07. The 5-year average P/FCF is -13.27. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -203.34, Undervalued between -203.34 and -108.31, Fairly Valued between 81.76 and -108.31, Overvalued between 81.76 and 176.80, and Strongly Overvalued above 176.80. The current Forward P/FCF of 2.07 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of -2.22. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of -1.74 , the current P/B ratio is approximately 27.27% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of -1.66, the current P/B ratio is about 33.23% higher. American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 17.48%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 6.64%, the current FCF yield is approximately 163.19% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of -9.14% , the current FCF yield is about -291.31% lower.

-2.22

P/B

Median3y

-1.74

Median5y

-1.66

17.48

FCF Yield

Median3y

6.64

Median5y

-9.14

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for AAL's competitors is 0.44, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. American Airlines Group Inc Corp (AAL) exhibits a P/S ratio of 0.16, which is -64.09% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 0.40%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

AAL.O

American Airlines Group Inc

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of AAL increased by 23.82% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in P/E Change from 10.77 to 15.10.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed 0.40%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of AAL in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

0.40%

14.33B → 14.39B

Revenue Growth

-16.80%

5.00 → 4.16

Margin Expansion

40.22%

10.77 → 15.10

P/E Change

23.82%