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AAL Earnings

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Earning Analysis

Welcome to our in-depth analysis of American Airlines Group Inc(AAL) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of American Airlines Group Inc earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.

Earnings Forecast

Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate

Surprise Analysis

Name
EPS
Revenue
Price Reaction
Fiscal QuarterEarning DateTimeEstimateActualSurprise%EstimateActualSurprise%1D5D
Fiscal Quarter
Earning Date
Time
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
1D
5D
FY2025Q32025-10-23Pre-Market-0.27-0.17+37.0413.63B13.69B+0.48+5.62+5.13
FY2025Q22025-07-24Pre-Market0.79--14.29B14.39B+0.69-9.62-9.94
FY2025Q12025-04-24Pre-Market-0.69-0.59+14.4912.56B12.55B-0.06+3.11+6.22
FY2024Q42025-01-23Pre-Market0.640.86+34.3713.42B13.66B+1.77-8.74-7.13
FY2024Q32024-10-24Pre-Market0.130.30+130.7713.57B13.65B+0.55-0.39+8.65
FY2024Q22024-07-25-1.041.09+4.8114.37B14.33B-0.27+4.23+4.62
FY2024Q12024-04-25--0.28-0.34-21.4312.58B12.57B-0.11+1.51-2.44
FY2023Q42024-01-25-0.060.29+383.3313.05B13.06B+0.07+10.27+2.15
FY2023Q32023-10-19-0.260.38+46.1513.53B13.48B-0.35+0.79-2.82
FY2023Q22023-07-20-1.581.92+21.5213.73B14.06B+2.35-6.24-9.89
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AAL Earnings Analysis

Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, American Airlines Group Inc reported performance for FY2025Q3, announced on 2025-10-23. The company achieved an EPS of -0.17, compared to analyst estimates of -0.27 by 37.04% . Revenue for the quarter reached 13.69B compared to expectations of 13.63B by 0.48% .
The stock price reacted with a 5.62% one-day change and a 5.13% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in American Airlines Group Inc growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.

AAL Earnings Forecast

Looking ahead, American Airlines Group Inc(AAL) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 14.21B and an EPS of 0.55.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been Revise Upward by 0.61%, while EPS estimates have been Revise Upward by 71.2%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted Revise Upward by 2.37% . These revisions correlate with a 9.63% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in American Airlines Group Inc long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.

Estimate Revision

The chart shows the correlation between AAL's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
Revise Upward
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+0.61%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
Revise Upward
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+71.2%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
Revise Upward
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+2.37%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Up
up Image
+9.63%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:54.86B
--
EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:0.74
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Stock Price14.34
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AAL Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective

American Airlines Group Inc revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q3 (2025-10-23,Pre-Market):
EPS: -0.17 (Actual) vs.-0.27 (Estimate) (37.04%)
Revenue: 13.69B (Actual) vs. 13.63B (Estimate) (0.48%)
Price Reaction: 5.62%(1-Day), 5.13%(5-Day)
FY2025Q2 (2025-07-24,Pre-Market):
EPS: (Actual) vs.0.79 (Estimate) (%)
Revenue: 14.39B (Actual) vs. 14.29B (Estimate) (0.69%)
Price Reaction: -9.62%(1-Day), -9.94%(5-Day)
FY2025Q1 (2025-04-24,Pre-Market):
EPS: -0.59 (Actual) vs.-0.69 (Estimate) (14.49%)
Revenue: 12.55B (Actual) vs. 12.56B (Estimate) (-0.06%)
Price Reaction: 3.11%(1-Day), 6.22%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how AAL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AAL sees a +2.13% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.12% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.05%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in SEP/2025, the stock changed 7.91% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by 2.98% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
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Transcript Summary

American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-10-23
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong premium demand and AAdvantage growth are positives, but there are concerns with labor costs and lack of specific guidance. Positive elements include a focus on premium seating and recovery in indirect channel share. However, the absence of clear guidance and modest revenue expectations for the third quarter balance these positives. The Q&A section did not provide significant new insights to alter the initial sentiment, resulting in a neutral outlook.
American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-07-24
The earnings call presents mixed signals: optimism about future demand and capacity balance, potential margin expansion, and strategic investments. However, concerns remain due to economic uncertainty, operational challenges, and rising unit costs. The Q&A section highlights management's optimism but lacks concrete responses to certain risks. Despite positive guidance and strategic partnerships, the overall sentiment remains cautious, leading to a neutral stock price prediction.
American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-04-26
The earnings call reveals mixed financial performance with a net loss, slight revenue decline, and increased costs. Guidance was pulled, indicating uncertainty, and there's significant weakness in domestic main cabin demand. Despite cost savings, liquidity, and debt reduction, these positives are overshadowed by the negative sentiment around demand and guidance. The Q&A section highlights uncertainties and management's cautious outlook, reinforcing the negative sentiment. Without a market cap, the stock's reaction is uncertain, but these factors collectively suggest a negative stock price movement.
American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-04-24
The earnings call reflects a mixed financial performance with a GAAP net loss and reduced revenue, despite some positive aspects like premium revenue growth and debt reduction. The Q&A highlights concerns about weak domestic demand, uncertainty in booking visibility, and management's cautious approach. The negative bias in capacity growth and unclear management responses further contribute to a negative sentiment. Despite some positive elements, the overall outlook is cautious, leading to a negative sentiment rating.
Earnings call transcript: American Airlines beats Q3 2024 EPS forecast
Neutral
2025-01-23
The earnings report presents mixed signals: while the company achieved a strong adjusted pretax profit and managed business revenue growth, it faces challenges like increased costs, regulatory pressures, and capacity constraints. The Q&A section reveals some concerns about fleet delays and network deficiencies. However, the optimistic guidance and debt reduction goals provide some positive outlook. Given the balance of positive and negative factors, the overall sentiment is neutral, suggesting limited stock price movement in the near term.
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2024-10-24
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. Record revenue and strong demand in business and premium segments are positives, but TRASM decline and economic factors weigh negatively. The Q&A highlights management's commitment to debt reduction and corporate recovery but lacks clarity on key issues like Citi negotiations. While the financial health is stable, guidance indicates challenges, such as election-related demand softness and salary cost pressures. The absence of a market cap limits precise impact prediction, but overall, the sentiment is balanced, leading to a neutral stock price prediction.
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2024-07-25
The earnings call presents mixed signals: record revenues and premium growth contrast with concerns over revenue decline and leadership instability. The Q&A highlights uncertainties in market share recovery and cost pressures. Although financial performance is strong, the unclear guidance and potential revenue shortfall dampen enthusiasm. The stock price is likely to remain stable, reflecting both the positive financial results and the challenges in market strategy and leadership.

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FAQ

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What were the key highlights of AAL’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q3?

AAL reported its FY2025Q3 earnings on 2025-10-23, showcasing a revenue of 13.69B against an estimate of 13.63B, resulting in a 0.48% surprise. The EPS was -0.17, surpassing the expected -0.27 by 37.04% . The stock experienced a 5.62% price change on the earnings day and a 5.13% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.
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How did AAL’s stock price react after the FY2025Q3 earnings release?

Following AAL’s FY2025Q3 earnings announcement on 2025-10-23, the stock price moved by 5.62% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a 5.13% change. Historically, AAL’s stock price tends to shift by an average of +2.13% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and +1.12% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.
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What are the revenue and EPS estimates for AAL for 2025/Q4?

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate AAL’s annual revenue to reach 14.21B, while the EPS is projected at 0.55. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue Revise Upward by 0.61% and EPS estimates Revise Upward by 2.37% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.
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How does AAL’s stock price correlate with earnings forecast revisions?

The correlation between AAL’s stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were Revise Upward by 0.61%, while EPS estimates moved Revise Upward by 2.37% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.
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What should investors expect from AAL’s next earnings report?

Based on historical trends, AAL’s stock price typically moves by +2.13% in the 10 days before its earnings and +1.12% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 0.55 and revenue of 14.21B.
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What is the sentiment in American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary?

The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong premium demand and AAdvantage growth are positives, but there are concerns with labor costs and lack of specific guidance. Positive elements include a focus on premium seating and recovery in indirect channel share. However, the absence of clear guidance and modest revenue expectations for the third quarter balance these positives. The Q&A section did not provide significant new insights to alter the initial sentiment, resulting in a neutral outlook.
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