AAL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AAL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AAL sees a -1.14% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.26% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.09%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AAL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
13.65B
1.22%
-4.79%
Gross Margin
59.05%
2.75%
-1.81%
Operating Margin
4.71%
-12.78%
-51.24%
Net Margin
-1.09%
-73.02%
-121.80%
EPS
-0.23
-72.29%
-122.77%
No Data Available
AAL Earnings Analysis
American Airlines Group Inc Corporation (AAL.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Q3 Profit Exceeds Expectations: American Airlines reported a 3rd quarter adjusted pre-tax profit of $271 million, exceeding prior guidance, with adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.30, despite operational challenges.
Q3 Revenue Performance: Record 3rd quarter revenue reached $13.6 billion, up 1.2% year over year, demonstrating strong demand and effective capacity management.
Revenue Performance Improvement: Managed business revenue increased by 6% year over year, with premium revenue rising approximately 8%, indicating robust performance in higher-yield segments.
Free Cash Flow Performance: Free cash flow for the 3rd quarter was approximately $170 million, contributing to a total of $2.4 billion free cash flow generated through the first three quarters of the year.
Available Liquidity Overview: Total available liquidity at the end of Q3 stood at $11.8 billion, providing a strong financial cushion for future operations and investments.
Negative
Earnings Impact Analysis: Adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.30 were impacted by approximately $90 million or $0.12 per diluted share due to disruptions from hurricanes and a CrowdStrike outage.
Revenue Performance Struggles: Total revenue growth was only 1.2% year over year, with unit revenue down 2% despite a 3.2% increase in capacity, indicating a struggle to improve revenue performance.
TRASM Decline Projections: Fourth quarter TRASM is expected to decline by 1% to 3%, with full year TRASM projected to be down 3% to 4% compared to 2023, reflecting ongoing revenue challenges.
Rising Operational Costs: Unit costs excluding net special items and fuel increased by 2.8% year over year, attributed to expenses from the CrowdStrike disruption and hurricanes, indicating rising operational costs.
Adjusted Operating Margin Outlook: The company anticipates a full year adjusted operating margin of only 4.5% to 5.5%, which is lower than previous expectations, highlighting ongoing profitability concerns.
AAL FAQs
How does AAL typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is Earnings call transcript: American Airlines beats Q3 2024 EPS forecast positive or negative?
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AAL Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: American Airlines beats Q3 2024 EPS forecast
AAL.O
-4.28%Positive
The earnings report presents mixed signals: while the company achieved a strong adjusted pretax profit and managed business revenue growth, it faces challenges like increased costs, regulatory pressures, and capacity constraints. The Q&A section reveals some concerns about fleet delays and network deficiencies. However, the optimistic guidance and debt reduction goals provide some positive outlook. Given the balance of positive and negative factors, the overall sentiment is neutral, suggesting limited stock price movement in the near term.
