Wingstop's 21-Year Same-Store Sales Growth Ends
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy WING?
Source: Fool
- Sales Decline: After achieving an impressive 18.3% same-store sales growth in 2023 and nearly 20% in 2024, Wingstop faced a 5.6% decline in Q3 2025, indicating increased consumer pressure that has reversed its long-standing growth trend, impacting investor confidence.
- Guidance Revision: Initially projecting low to mid-single-digit growth for 2025, management has revised expectations to a decline of 3% to 4% following multiple guidance cuts, reflecting reduced transaction counts in key markets that could affect future profitability.
- Expansion Plans Continue: Despite cooling sales, Wingstop reported an 18.5% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $64 million in Q3, with systemwide sales rising 10% to $1.4 billion, demonstrating strong performance from new locations and ongoing franchisee demand.
- Global Expansion Goals: Wingstop aims to reach 10,000 global restaurants in the coming years; while facing short-term challenges, management remains optimistic about opportunities in international markets, particularly in regions like the Middle East and India.
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Analyst Views on WING
Wall Street analysts forecast WING stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for WING is 330.13 USD with a low forecast of 268.69 USD and a high forecast of 400.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
22 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 282.860
Low
268.69
Averages
330.13
High
400.00
Current: 282.860
Low
268.69
Averages
330.13
High
400.00
About WING
Wingstop Inc. is a fast casual chicken wings-focused restaurant chain in the world, with more than 2,550 locations worldwide. The Company is in the business of franchising and operating Wingstop restaurants. The Company is primarily a franchisor, with approximately 98% of its restaurants owned and operated by independent franchisees. The Company offers classic wings, boneless wings, tenders, and chicken sandwiches, always cooked to order, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in 12 bold, distinctive flavors. It also complements its wings, tenders, and chicken sandwiches with fresh-cut, seasoned fries and fresh, hand-cut carrots and celery. It offers various order options, including dine-in / carryout / delivery; individual / combo meals / family packs. Its menu also features signature sides, including fresh-cut, seasoned fries and freshly made ranch and bleu cheese dips. The Company operates approximately a total of 2,513 restaurants in 45 states and 12 countries and United States territories.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Wingstop's 21-Year Same-Store Sales Growth Ends
- Sales Decline: After achieving an impressive 18.3% same-store sales growth in 2023 and nearly 20% in 2024, Wingstop faced a 5.6% decline in Q3 2025, indicating increased consumer pressure that has reversed its long-standing growth trend, impacting investor confidence.
- Guidance Revision: Initially projecting low to mid-single-digit growth for 2025, management has revised expectations to a decline of 3% to 4% following multiple guidance cuts, reflecting reduced transaction counts in key markets that could affect future profitability.
- Expansion Plans Continue: Despite cooling sales, Wingstop reported an 18.5% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $64 million in Q3, with systemwide sales rising 10% to $1.4 billion, demonstrating strong performance from new locations and ongoing franchisee demand.
- Global Expansion Goals: Wingstop aims to reach 10,000 global restaurants in the coming years; while facing short-term challenges, management remains optimistic about opportunities in international markets, particularly in regions like the Middle East and India.
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- Deepening Strategic Partnership: The collaboration between Nvidia and CoreWeave aims to meet the extraordinary demand for Nvidia's AI factories, with plans to build 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030, and this investment will accelerate that process, further solidifying Nvidia's leadership in the AI sector.
- Liquidity Crisis Concerns: While Nvidia's investment is seen as support for CoreWeave, critics note that CoreWeave may be facing cash flow shortages and debt burdens, suggesting that Nvidia's investment could be a move to mitigate the risk of its partner's potential bankruptcy.
- Market Outlook Analysis: As AI technology rapidly evolves, Nvidia's investment is not only a lifeline for CoreWeave but also a strategic positioning within the entire AI ecosystem, reflecting the company's forward-thinking approach in future market competition.
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- Market Reaction: Following the announcement, CoreWeave's shares surged over 10%, indicating a positive market response to NVIDIA's investment and reflecting investor optimism regarding the demand for AI infrastructure.
- Strategic Significance: NVIDIA's investment not only supports CoreWeave but also signifies its long-term strategic positioning in the AI sector, with plans to build 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030 to address future technological needs.
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Restaurant Stocks Struggle in 2025 Amid Consumer Shifts
- Overall Industry Decline: In 2025, restaurant stocks fell approximately 0.7%, significantly trailing the S&P 500's 16% gain, indicating severe challenges within the sector that investors need to carefully assess for future prospects.
- Individual Stock Volatility: Sweetgreen's stock plummeted by 80%, Cava Group dropped 50%, and Chipotle Mexican Grill fell 30%, reflecting a lack of confidence in the restaurant industry that could impact investor decisions moving forward.
- Shifts in Consumer Behavior: Although industry sales are projected to grow by 4% to $1.5 trillion in 2025, declining guest traffic puts pressure on many operators, as consumers become more price-sensitive, intensifying competition among quick-service and casual dining sectors.
- Profitability Metrics: Chipotle maintains a restaurant-level operating margin around 24.5%, showcasing its profitability amid rising costs, while Texas Roadhouse achieved approximately 5% same-store sales growth in Q3, demonstrating resilience and competitiveness in the market.
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- Franchise Model Benefits: Quick-service restaurants (QSRs) leverage the franchise model to earn royalties on sales, significantly reducing operational risks and capital requirements, which has led to nearly $8 billion in annual shareholder returns, enhancing their investment appeal.
- McDonald's Global Performance: McDonald's has outpaced U.S. same-store sales with around 60% of its revenue generated overseas, effectively offsetting ongoing weakness in the U.S. market, showcasing the success of its international strategy.
- Yum! Brands Diversification: Yum! Brands' Taco Bell achieved 7% same-store sales growth in the latest quarter with a strong 23.9% restaurant-level margin in the U.S., while Pizza Hut is under strategic review, indicating robust performance across its brand portfolio.
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- Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks: In 2025, fast-casual stocks like Wingstop, Chipotle, Cava, and Sweetgreen suffered losses ranging from 15% to 78%, but have shown double-digit rebounds in early 2026, indicating a restoration of market confidence in the sector.
- Shifts in Consumer Preferences: Data shows that the share of consumers opting for deli-prepared foods over restaurant meals has more than doubled since 2017, rising from 12% to 28%, highlighting increased competition for fast-casual dining amid economic pressures.
- Pricing Strategy Missteps: Analysts note that fast-casual companies have aggressively raised menu prices over the past year, leading to heightened consumer sensitivity, particularly as prices exceed $16, prompting consumers to reassess their value.
- Market Expectation Reset: As market expectations for fast-casual stocks adjust, investors are beginning to refocus on the fundamentals of these businesses, particularly the strong long-term performance of companies like Chipotle and Wingstop, which may attract renewed capital inflows.
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Wingstop's 21-Year Same-Store Sales Growth Ends
- Sales Decline: After achieving an impressive 18.3% same-store sales growth in 2023 and nearly 20% in 2024, Wingstop faced a 5.6% decline in Q3 2025, indicating increased consumer pressure that has reversed its long-standing growth trend, impacting investor confidence.
- Guidance Revision: Initially projecting low to mid-single-digit growth for 2025, management has revised expectations to a decline of 3% to 4% following multiple guidance cuts, reflecting reduced transaction counts in key markets that could affect future profitability.
- Expansion Plans Continue: Despite cooling sales, Wingstop reported an 18.5% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $64 million in Q3, with systemwide sales rising 10% to $1.4 billion, demonstrating strong performance from new locations and ongoing franchisee demand.
- Global Expansion Goals: Wingstop aims to reach 10,000 global restaurants in the coming years; while facing short-term challenges, management remains optimistic about opportunities in international markets, particularly in regions like the Middle East and India.
See More
Nvidia's $2 Billion Investment in CoreWeave Highlights AI Infrastructure Needs
- Significant Investment: Nvidia's announcement of a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, purchasing shares at approximately $87 each, represents a 6.5% discount from last Friday's closing price, resulting in a more than 10% surge in CoreWeave's stock, indicating strong market demand for AI infrastructure.
- Deepening Strategic Partnership: The collaboration between Nvidia and CoreWeave aims to meet the extraordinary demand for Nvidia's AI factories, with plans to build 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030, and this investment will accelerate that process, further solidifying Nvidia's leadership in the AI sector.
- Liquidity Crisis Concerns: While Nvidia's investment is seen as support for CoreWeave, critics note that CoreWeave may be facing cash flow shortages and debt burdens, suggesting that Nvidia's investment could be a move to mitigate the risk of its partner's potential bankruptcy.
- Market Outlook Analysis: As AI technology rapidly evolves, Nvidia's investment is not only a lifeline for CoreWeave but also a strategic positioning within the entire AI ecosystem, reflecting the company's forward-thinking approach in future market competition.
See More
NVIDIA Invests $2 Billion in CoreWeave to Boost AI Infrastructure
- Investment Scale: NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, purchasing shares at approximately $87 each, reflecting a 6.5% discount from Friday's closing price, aimed at supporting CoreWeave's expansion of AI data center infrastructure to meet growing market demand.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement, CoreWeave's shares surged over 10%, indicating a positive market response to NVIDIA's investment and reflecting investor optimism regarding the demand for AI infrastructure.
- Strategic Significance: NVIDIA's investment not only supports CoreWeave but also signifies its long-term strategic positioning in the AI sector, with plans to build 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030 to address future technological needs.
- Risk Consideration: While the investment is seen as a support for CoreWeave, analysts express concerns that NVIDIA may be overly reliant on CoreWeave financially, especially as it faces liquidity crises and debt pressures, which could impact NVIDIA's long-term investment returns.
See More
Restaurant Stocks Struggle in 2025 Amid Consumer Shifts
- Overall Industry Decline: In 2025, restaurant stocks fell approximately 0.7%, significantly trailing the S&P 500's 16% gain, indicating severe challenges within the sector that investors need to carefully assess for future prospects.
- Individual Stock Volatility: Sweetgreen's stock plummeted by 80%, Cava Group dropped 50%, and Chipotle Mexican Grill fell 30%, reflecting a lack of confidence in the restaurant industry that could impact investor decisions moving forward.
- Shifts in Consumer Behavior: Although industry sales are projected to grow by 4% to $1.5 trillion in 2025, declining guest traffic puts pressure on many operators, as consumers become more price-sensitive, intensifying competition among quick-service and casual dining sectors.
- Profitability Metrics: Chipotle maintains a restaurant-level operating margin around 24.5%, showcasing its profitability amid rising costs, while Texas Roadhouse achieved approximately 5% same-store sales growth in Q3, demonstrating resilience and competitiveness in the market.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Franchise QSRs
- Franchise Model Benefits: Quick-service restaurants (QSRs) leverage the franchise model to earn royalties on sales, significantly reducing operational risks and capital requirements, which has led to nearly $8 billion in annual shareholder returns, enhancing their investment appeal.
- McDonald's Global Performance: McDonald's has outpaced U.S. same-store sales with around 60% of its revenue generated overseas, effectively offsetting ongoing weakness in the U.S. market, showcasing the success of its international strategy.
- Yum! Brands Diversification: Yum! Brands' Taco Bell achieved 7% same-store sales growth in the latest quarter with a strong 23.9% restaurant-level margin in the U.S., while Pizza Hut is under strategic review, indicating robust performance across its brand portfolio.
- Wingstop's Growth Potential: Despite a 5.6% decline in same-store sales in 2025, Wingstop's streamlined operations focused on chicken wings and over 70% digital sales indicate significant expansion potential in a mature market, with a long-term goal of 10,000 global locations.
See More
Analysis of the Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks
- Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks: In 2025, fast-casual stocks like Wingstop, Chipotle, Cava, and Sweetgreen suffered losses ranging from 15% to 78%, but have shown double-digit rebounds in early 2026, indicating a restoration of market confidence in the sector.
- Shifts in Consumer Preferences: Data shows that the share of consumers opting for deli-prepared foods over restaurant meals has more than doubled since 2017, rising from 12% to 28%, highlighting increased competition for fast-casual dining amid economic pressures.
- Pricing Strategy Missteps: Analysts note that fast-casual companies have aggressively raised menu prices over the past year, leading to heightened consumer sensitivity, particularly as prices exceed $16, prompting consumers to reassess their value.
- Market Expectation Reset: As market expectations for fast-casual stocks adjust, investors are beginning to refocus on the fundamentals of these businesses, particularly the strong long-term performance of companies like Chipotle and Wingstop, which may attract renewed capital inflows.
See More
