Wednesday's ETF with Unusual Volume: NANR
ETF Performance Overview: On Wednesday, Cleveland-cliffs and Transocean saw significant trading volumes with declines of 0.9% and 2.9%, respectively, while MP Materials gained 6.2% and PBF Energy dropped 7.9%.
Market Commentary: The views expressed in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent Nasdaq, Inc.
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Earnings Report Overview: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) reported mixed earnings following the Super Bowl, with an initial bearish market reaction. The company's earnings loss was offset by better-than-expected revenue, despite a 6% miss in revenue forecasts.
Stock Performance and Future Outlook: The stock has seen a significant increase of over 47% in the past year, but investors are cautious about the company's future guidance, which they believe needs to be stronger to maintain confidence.
Market Conditions and Expectations: Cleveland-Cliffs anticipates shipping approximately 16.8 million tons of steel in 2026, a 3% increase from the previous year, supported by improved manufacturing conditions and lower coal prices.
Strategic Partnerships and Investor Sentiment: The company is exploring a strategic partnership with Korean steelmaker POSCO, which could involve equity investment. However, uncertainty remains regarding the completion of this agreement and its impact on investor confidence.
- Cisco's Stock Plunge: Despite beating earnings and revenue expectations, Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) saw its shares drop over 11%, marking the worst single-day decline since May 2022, as investors expressed concerns over profit durability.
- Tech Sector Decline: The iShares Tech-Expanded Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) fell 3.7%, revisiting lows from last week, indicating heightened sensitivity to AI disruption risks following Cisco's outlook.
- Small Caps Underperform: The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.7%, while both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.2%, with the Russell 2000 small-cap index sliding 2.4%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.
- Increased Volatility: The VIX surged 16%, as investors rotated into defensive sectors, with utilities and consumer staples outperforming, highlighting a risk-off tone in the market.
- Tariff Impact: Cleveland-Cliffs' stock is negatively affected by tariffs, as the company has performed reasonably well under these conditions but still lags behind competitor Nucor, indicating its market disadvantage.
- Economic Activity Demand: Cramer highlighted that Cleveland-Cliffs needs more economic activity to improve its performance, suggesting that the current market environment continues to pose challenges for steel manufacturers, impacting their future growth potential.
- Competitor Performance: Compared to Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs is underperforming, with Cramer explicitly stating he does not recommend the stock, emphasizing Nucor's operational superiority and suggesting investors should consider more promising alternatives.
- Investment Outlook: While Cleveland-Cliffs is seen as having investment potential, market analysts generally believe that certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk, reflecting a shift in market focus towards different sectors.
- Demand Gap Impact: Cleveland-Cliffs faced significant steel imports last year that adversely affected its domestic market, creating a demand gap that negatively impacted steel shipments and asset utilization, ultimately leading to disappointing performance metrics.
- Disappointing Earnings Report: The company projected EBITDA of only $140 million in its latest earnings report, significantly below Bloomberg's consensus of $321 million, resulting in a stock price drop of over 16% on Monday, marking its worst session in over three months.
- Analyst Rating Dynamics: Despite the stock's decline, analysts maintain an average ‘Buy’ rating on Cleveland-Cliffs, with three analysts rating it ‘Buy’ or higher, indicating confidence in the company's future potential amidst current challenges.
- Retail Sentiment Shift: Retail investor sentiment on Cleveland-Cliffs shifted from ‘bearish’ to ‘extremely bullish’, with a 15,900% surge in message volume on Stocktwits over the past 24 hours, reflecting a positive response to the current dip in stock price.
- Earnings Miss: Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q4 revenues of $4.3 billion, flat year-over-year but significantly below Wall Street's consensus of $4.6 billion, resulting in a full-year net loss exceeding $1.4 billion and a 3% decline in sales to $18.6 billion, indicating mounting pressure in the competitive landscape.
- Automotive Sector Impact: The company noted that its FY 2025 performance was adversely affected by persistently weak production levels in the automotive sector, which accounted for 28% of its quarterly steelmaking revenue, further exacerbating the sales decline and reflecting overall industry demand weakness.
- Cost Increase Expectations: The CEO indicated that the upcoming quarter would see higher costs due to a recent spike in utility expenses and changes in product mix, although normalization is expected by Q2, alongside anticipated improvements in steel pricing and shipment volumes.
- Strategic Priority: Cleveland-Cliffs has extended its timeline for reaching an agreement with Korea's Posco for asset sales to H1 2025, with the CEO emphasizing that this deal remains the number one strategic priority for both companies, reflecting the seriousness and potential scale of the opportunity.
- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.47% on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting an all-time high, indicating a strong recovery in the market following rebounds in tech stocks and chipmakers, reflecting investor confidence in economic recovery.
- Precious Metals Surge: Mining stocks rallied as gold prices increased by 2% and silver surged over 6%, with Coeur Mining and Hecla Mining gaining more than 7% and 5% respectively, highlighting the positive impact of strong performance in the precious metals market on related stocks.
- Earnings Season Insights: More than half of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 79% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, which is likely to further boost market sentiment and enhance investor confidence.
- Economic Data Focus: The market will closely watch upcoming economic data releases, including the employment cost index and retail sales figures, which are expected to significantly influence future monetary policy and market trends.









