VinFast Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite Loss
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 16 2026
0mins
Should l Buy VFS?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Performance: VinFast reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of -$0.60, missing expectations by $0.24, yet achieved revenue of $1.57 billion, a 138.9% year-over-year increase, exceeding estimates by $440 million, indicating strong revenue growth.
- Sales Surge: Vehicle sales reached VND 37,915.4 billion (approximately $1.51 billion) in Q4, representing a 145.5% increase from Q4 2024 and a 127.1% increase from Q3 2025, demonstrating robust market demand.
- Market Expansion: The revenue growth was primarily driven by increased contributions from Vietnam and the expansion into new overseas markets such as India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, showcasing the effectiveness of VinFast's international strategy.
- Stock Reaction: Despite the strong revenue and sales growth, VinFast's shares fell by 2%, reflecting market concerns over cash burn that overshadowed the positive impact of delivery growth.
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Analyst Views on VFS
Wall Street analysts forecast VFS stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 3.850
Low
5.50
Averages
5.83
High
6.00
Current: 3.850
Low
5.50
Averages
5.83
High
6.00
About VFS
VinFast Auto Ltd is a full-scale mobility platform focused on designing and manufacturing electric vehicles (EVs), e-scooters and e-buses. Its segments include Car, E-scooter and Ebus. The Car segment includes the design, development, manufacturing and sales of cars and related battery lease and battery charging services for cars. The E-scooter segment includes the design, development, manufacturing and sales of e-scooters and related battery lease and battery charging services for e-scooters. The Ebus segment includes the design, development, manufacturing and sales of Ebus. Its EV models include the VF 3, VF e34, VF 8, VF 9, VF 5, VF 6, VF 7, the Green series, which includes Minio Green, Herio Green, Nerio Green, Limo Green, and VF Wild. It offers two trims of the VF 8 model in North America, Europe, Vietnam and the Middle East, the Eco and Plus. The Eco trim offers a longer driving range. The Plus trim offers high horsepower and luxury features, including a power-assisted tailgate.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
VinFast VF 9: A New Electric SUV Option for Canadian Families
- Space and Comfort: The VinFast VF 9, a fully electric three-row SUV, boasts dimensions of 201.4 x 88.7 x 66.8 inches and a 124-inch wheelbase, allowing for comfortable seating for six to seven people, addressing the common issue of space constraints in traditional SUVs and enhancing family travel comfort and convenience.
- Power and Range: Equipped with all-wheel drive and up to 402 horsepower, the VF 9 offers a range of up to 518 kilometers, meeting the needs for daily commutes and intercity travel, especially excelling in winter driving conditions, thereby boosting consumer confidence in electric SUVs.
- Long-Term Warranty and Services: VinFast provides a 10-year or 200,000-kilometer vehicle warranty and unlimited mileage warranty for the battery, significantly alleviating consumer concerns about long-term reliability of electric vehicles, while the VinFast app simplifies charging and daily use, enhancing user experience.
- Market Competitiveness: With a starting price of CAD 77,308, the VF 9 redefines market standards for full-size electric SUVs with its spaciousness, refined design, and electric efficiency, likely attracting more families seeking eco-friendly and economical travel options.
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- Impact of Rising Gas Prices: Gas prices in Canada averaged CAD 1.41 per litre in early March, up approximately CAD 0.09 from the previous week, with some regions seeing increases of nearly 15 cents, leading consumers to reconsider their vehicle choices, particularly towards electric vehicles.
- Government Incentives: The federal Incentives for Zero Emission Vehicles program offers rebates up to CAD 5,000 for eligible electric vehicles, and when combined with provincial incentives, consumers can receive up to CAD 18,000 in total rebates, effectively lowering the starting price of the VinFast VF 8 to about CAD 35,070, below the national average for new vehicles.
- Significant Long-term Savings: Assuming a typical Canadian driver travels 20,000 kilometers annually, the fuel cost for a gasoline SUV would be around CAD 2,764, while the annual charging cost for an electric SUV like the VF 8 is only CAD 689, resulting in annual savings of approximately CAD 2,075, which compounds over time, especially with fluctuating fuel prices.
- Reliability and Charging Access: VinFast backs the VF 8 with a 10-year or 200,000-kilometer warranty, exceeding many automakers' offerings, and through partnerships, VinFast drivers can access over 100,000 public charging points across North America, significantly enhancing the practicality and appeal of electric vehicles.
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- Growth-Focused Strategy: Analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities highlights that VinFast (VFS) is prioritizing growth over profitability in the near term, with expectations to achieve gross profit positivity by late FY27 and EBITDA positivity by FY28, laying the groundwork for long-term profitability.
- Market Share Ambitions: VinFast aims to capture up to 50% of the Vietnamese auto market by 2030, which consists of approximately 1 million units annually, while also planning to increase deliveries to India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, showcasing its ambition for global expansion.
- Geopolitical Neutrality: As the only prominent electric vehicle OEM that is neither Chinese nor American, VinFast is viewed as a more neutral player in the geopolitical landscape, with its highly vertically integrated manufacturing allowing for supply chain control and global footprint expansion.
- Investment Rating and Price Target: Wedbush Securities has assigned an Outperform rating to VinFast (VFS) with a 12-month price target of $6.00, reflecting market recognition of its future growth potential, despite the current share price of $3.07, which rose 3.0% in early afternoon trading.
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- Significant Revenue Growth: The company's revenue more than doubled year-over-year to approximately $3.6 billion, driven by increased production capacity, expanded model offerings, and meaningful contributions from international markets, particularly as overseas deliveries accounted for 18% of total deliveries in Q4, reflecting the effectiveness of its international strategy.
- Capacity Expansion: With new facilities in India and Indonesia, VinFast's annual production capacity reached 600,000 vehicles, enabling market expansion without requiring new investments at each stage, thereby enhancing its competitive edge and sustainability in the market.
- Strategic Shift and Optimization: VinFast has clarified its product structure with the VF lineup for passenger vehicles, the Green brand for commercial applications, and the Lac Hong ultra-luxury segment, focusing on scale and unit cost optimization to achieve profitability, showcasing its long-term growth potential in the electric vehicle industry.
See More
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- Rivian Business Progress: Rivian reversed a $1.2 billion gross profit loss in 2025, achieving its first full-year gross profit and launching the R2 model to tap into a broader market, although profitability challenges remain.
- Lucid Production Acceleration: Lucid has successfully launched the Gravity SUV despite production hurdles, achieving eight consecutive quarters of record deliveries, indicating gradual improvement in its market position.
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- International Expansion Challenges: Despite aggressive international expansion, VinFast's North Carolina factory construction is delayed due to rising costs, now expected to begin operations in 2028, with a likely smaller scale than initially planned, increasing investment uncertainty.
See More
Investment Risks and Opportunities in the EV Market
- EV Sales Growth: Global electric vehicle sales are projected to grow at a 25% annual rate through 2030, presenting a long-term growth opportunity for investors despite market volatility and policy changes posing risks.
- Rivian's Profit Turnaround: Rivian achieved its first full-year gross profit in 2025, reversing a prior $1.2 billion loss, and is launching its R2 model to tap into a broader market, demonstrating its efforts in brand building and scaling.
- Lucid's Production Progress: Although Lucid lags behind Rivian in production speed, it has posted eight consecutive quarters of record deliveries, indicating significant progress in overcoming production hurdles and potential for increased market share.
- VinFast's Expansion Challenges: Despite VinFast's aggressive international expansion leading to a $3 billion net loss in 2024 and approximately $11 billion in total losses since 2021, its unit economics are improving with R&D expenses at 7% of revenue, indicating some potential for future growth.
See More
VinFast VF 9: A New Electric SUV Option for Canadian Families
- Space and Comfort: The VinFast VF 9, a fully electric three-row SUV, boasts dimensions of 201.4 x 88.7 x 66.8 inches and a 124-inch wheelbase, allowing for comfortable seating for six to seven people, addressing the common issue of space constraints in traditional SUVs and enhancing family travel comfort and convenience.
- Power and Range: Equipped with all-wheel drive and up to 402 horsepower, the VF 9 offers a range of up to 518 kilometers, meeting the needs for daily commutes and intercity travel, especially excelling in winter driving conditions, thereby boosting consumer confidence in electric SUVs.
- Long-Term Warranty and Services: VinFast provides a 10-year or 200,000-kilometer vehicle warranty and unlimited mileage warranty for the battery, significantly alleviating consumer concerns about long-term reliability of electric vehicles, while the VinFast app simplifies charging and daily use, enhancing user experience.
- Market Competitiveness: With a starting price of CAD 77,308, the VF 9 redefines market standards for full-size electric SUVs with its spaciousness, refined design, and electric efficiency, likely attracting more families seeking eco-friendly and economical travel options.
See More
Rising Gas Prices Drive Demand for EVs in Canada
- Impact of Rising Gas Prices: Gas prices in Canada averaged CAD 1.41 per litre in early March, up approximately CAD 0.09 from the previous week, with some regions seeing increases of nearly 15 cents, leading consumers to reconsider their vehicle choices, particularly towards electric vehicles.
- Government Incentives: The federal Incentives for Zero Emission Vehicles program offers rebates up to CAD 5,000 for eligible electric vehicles, and when combined with provincial incentives, consumers can receive up to CAD 18,000 in total rebates, effectively lowering the starting price of the VinFast VF 8 to about CAD 35,070, below the national average for new vehicles.
- Significant Long-term Savings: Assuming a typical Canadian driver travels 20,000 kilometers annually, the fuel cost for a gasoline SUV would be around CAD 2,764, while the annual charging cost for an electric SUV like the VF 8 is only CAD 689, resulting in annual savings of approximately CAD 2,075, which compounds over time, especially with fluctuating fuel prices.
- Reliability and Charging Access: VinFast backs the VF 8 with a 10-year or 200,000-kilometer warranty, exceeding many automakers' offerings, and through partnerships, VinFast drivers can access over 100,000 public charging points across North America, significantly enhancing the practicality and appeal of electric vehicles.
See More
VinFast Recognized as an Underappreciated AI Story
- Growth-Focused Strategy: Analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities highlights that VinFast (VFS) is prioritizing growth over profitability in the near term, with expectations to achieve gross profit positivity by late FY27 and EBITDA positivity by FY28, laying the groundwork for long-term profitability.
- Market Share Ambitions: VinFast aims to capture up to 50% of the Vietnamese auto market by 2030, which consists of approximately 1 million units annually, while also planning to increase deliveries to India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, showcasing its ambition for global expansion.
- Geopolitical Neutrality: As the only prominent electric vehicle OEM that is neither Chinese nor American, VinFast is viewed as a more neutral player in the geopolitical landscape, with its highly vertically integrated manufacturing allowing for supply chain control and global footprint expansion.
- Investment Rating and Price Target: Wedbush Securities has assigned an Outperform rating to VinFast (VFS) with a 12-month price target of $6.00, reflecting market recognition of its future growth potential, despite the current share price of $3.07, which rose 3.0% in early afternoon trading.
See More
VinFast Reports Record Deliveries and Strategic Focus for 2025
- Record Deliveries: VinFast delivered nearly 197,000 electric vehicles globally in 2025, more than doubling its 2024 total, with over 86,000 units delivered in Q4 alone, marking the company's strongest quarterly performance and indicating robust growth potential in the EV market.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company's revenue more than doubled year-over-year to approximately $3.6 billion, driven by increased production capacity, expanded model offerings, and meaningful contributions from international markets, particularly as overseas deliveries accounted for 18% of total deliveries in Q4, reflecting the effectiveness of its international strategy.
- Capacity Expansion: With new facilities in India and Indonesia, VinFast's annual production capacity reached 600,000 vehicles, enabling market expansion without requiring new investments at each stage, thereby enhancing its competitive edge and sustainability in the market.
- Strategic Shift and Optimization: VinFast has clarified its product structure with the VF lineup for passenger vehicles, the Green brand for commercial applications, and the Lac Hong ultra-luxury segment, focusing on scale and unit cost optimization to achieve profitability, showcasing its long-term growth potential in the electric vehicle industry.
See More
Analysis of Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics
- Rivian Business Progress: Rivian reversed a $1.2 billion gross profit loss in 2025, achieving its first full-year gross profit and launching the R2 model to tap into a broader market, although profitability challenges remain.
- Lucid Production Acceleration: Lucid has successfully launched the Gravity SUV despite production hurdles, achieving eight consecutive quarters of record deliveries, indicating gradual improvement in its market position.
- VinFast Financial Struggles: VinFast's fourth-quarter net loss widened by 15% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, with a net loss exceeding $3 billion in 2024, totaling approximately $11 billion in losses since 2021, highlighting the high risks of its expansion strategy.
- International Expansion Challenges: Despite aggressive international expansion, VinFast's North Carolina factory construction is delayed due to rising costs, now expected to begin operations in 2028, with a likely smaller scale than initially planned, increasing investment uncertainty.
See More
Investment Risks and Opportunities in the EV Market
- EV Sales Growth: Global electric vehicle sales are projected to grow at a 25% annual rate through 2030, presenting a long-term growth opportunity for investors despite market volatility and policy changes posing risks.
- Rivian's Profit Turnaround: Rivian achieved its first full-year gross profit in 2025, reversing a prior $1.2 billion loss, and is launching its R2 model to tap into a broader market, demonstrating its efforts in brand building and scaling.
- Lucid's Production Progress: Although Lucid lags behind Rivian in production speed, it has posted eight consecutive quarters of record deliveries, indicating significant progress in overcoming production hurdles and potential for increased market share.
- VinFast's Expansion Challenges: Despite VinFast's aggressive international expansion leading to a $3 billion net loss in 2024 and approximately $11 billion in total losses since 2021, its unit economics are improving with R&D expenses at 7% of revenue, indicating some potential for future growth.
See More
