U.S. Futures Modestly Lower as Markets Pause After Rally
After one of the strongest rallies of the year, futures are modestly lower. Markets are pausing and giving back part of yesterday's surge after the initial euphoria around the ceasefire. The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran remains intact on paper, but cracks are already emerging. Ongoing military activity in Lebanon, disputes over compliance and continued restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz are all raising doubts.Crude is rebounding back toward the $100 level following yesterday's collapse as traders price in the risk that supply disruptions persist. Energy stocks are stabilizing and bond yields are ticking higher again as rate-cut expectations get pushed out. Markets are now pricing a much lower probability of easing this year, with some Fed officials even signaling openness to hikes if inflation proves sticky.In pre-market trading, S&P 500 futures fell 0.24%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.13% and Dow futures fell 0.31%.Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER -CoreWeaveup 2% after announcing an expanded, long-term agreement with Meta Platformsto provide AI cloud capacity through December 2032 for approximately $21BTexas Instrumentsup 1% after Stifel upgraded the stock to Buy with a price target of $250, up from $215UP AFTER EARNINGS -Staar Surgicalup 19%Richardson Electronicsup 15%Resources Connectionup 9%BlackBerryup 8%DOWN AFTER EARNINGS -Simply Good Foodsdown 22%Applied Digitaldown 2%LOWER -Zscalerdown 3% after BTIG downgraded the stock to Neutral with no price target and removed the stock from the firm's first half Top Picks listTradeweb Marketsdown 1% after TD Cowen downgraded shares to Hold with a price target of $129, down from $130Conagra Brandsdown 1% after BNP Paribas downgraded shares to Neutral with a price target of $16, down from $19
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- Stock Price Volatility: Following news of Meta's plans to enter the cloud computing market, CoreWeave's stock plummeted nearly 14% in a single day, while Nebius dropped 17%, reflecting market concerns about the future prospects of both companies, especially with Meta as a customer.
- Massive Contract Expansion: CoreWeave expanded its agreement with Meta in April 2023 to provide cloud computing capacity through 2032, valued at $21 billion, while Nebius announced in March it would provide $12 billion in cloud capacity, showcasing the strong collaborative potential in the AI data center sector.
- Sustained Demand Growth: Despite the competitive threat from Meta, demand for AI data centers from CoreWeave and Nebius remains robust, with CoreWeave noting that its 2026 capacity is largely sold out and 30% of its $99.4 billion revenue backlog comes from foundational AI labs, indicating urgent market demand for their services.
- Investment Opportunity Emerges: Although Meta's plans could impact CoreWeave and Nebius, the demand for AI data centers far exceeds supply, making the current stock price pullback a buying opportunity, particularly as CoreWeave's price-to-sales ratio is only 6.6, indicating potential investment value.
- Increased Competition: Meta's plan to enter the AI data center market led to a 14% and 17% drop in CoreWeave and Nebius shares respectively, indicating market concerns over new competition that could impact future revenue growth for both companies.
- Shifting Customer Dynamics: CoreWeave's agreement with Meta has been extended to 2032, valued at $21 billion, while Nebius has committed to providing $12 billion in cloud computing capacity, highlighting the importance of their business relationships despite increased competition.
- Strong Demand Continues: CoreWeave's AI cloud platform demand is nearing saturation for 2026, with 30% of its $99.4 billion revenue backlog coming from foundational AI labs, showcasing its robust market position and growth potential.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. data center power demand is projected to double to 66GW by 2027, indicating that the demand for AI data centers will continue to grow, positioning CoreWeave and Nebius to benefit from this trend.

- Stock Pullback: Nebius shares fell 2.4% recently, now down 29% from the June 18 peak, although still up 155% year-to-date, indicating a divergence in market sentiment regarding its future prospects.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite the price drop, Stocktwits sentiment for NBIS rose 44% over the past week, turning ‘bullish’ on Tuesday, reflecting retail investors' views on the current price as a buying opportunity.
- Competitive Pressure: Reports of Meta's plans to launch a cloud computing business led to a 17% and 14% drop in Nebius and CoreWeave shares, respectively; however, analysts argue that Meta's expansion will drive growth rather than hinder the neocloud market.
- Expansion Plans: Nebius recently announced a £1.7 billion ($2.3 billion) investment to establish three data centers in the UK and plans for a 310-megawatt data center in Finland, valued at over $10 billion, highlighting its potential as a key AI hyperscaler.
- Significant Stock Decline: CoreWeave's stock plummeted 18% over two trading sessions due to concerns over Meta's entry into the neocloud market, despite Meta's substantial resources and 32 large data centers, indicating pressure on CoreWeave's market position.
- Heavy Financial Burden: With nearly $25 billion in debt against less than $4.8 billion in shareholder equity, CoreWeave faces increased financial risks due to ongoing net losses and share dilution, raising concerns about its ability to meet contractual obligations.
- Strong Revenue Growth: Despite challenges, CoreWeave achieved a remarkable 112% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2026, significantly exceeding the forecasted 46% CAGR, highlighting its potential in the rapidly growing cloud computing market.
- Strategic Partnership Advantage: CoreWeave's collaboration with Nvidia not only provides access to advanced platforms but also helped it join the Nasdaq-100 index, suggesting that despite competition from Meta, it remains an attractive investment opportunity due to its low valuation.
- Market Reaction: Meta's entry into the neocloud business caused CoreWeave's stock to plunge 18% over two trading sessions, reflecting investor concerns about intensified competition, despite CoreWeave's strong annual revenue growth and backlog.
- Significant Financial Pressure: CoreWeave is burdened with nearly $25 billion in debt against less than $4.8 billion in shareholder equity, and ongoing net losses may lead to further stock dilution, increasing investor risk.
- Industry Growth Potential: Despite challenges, Mordor Intelligence forecasts a 46% CAGR for the neocloud industry through 2031, while CoreWeave's 112% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2026 indicates a strong market position.
- Clear Competitive Advantage: CoreWeave's partnership with Nvidia not only provides access to advanced platforms but also positions it favorably in the competitive landscape; although Meta's entry may exert pressure, the rapid industry growth allows room for multiple players.
- Cloud Infrastructure Revenue Potential: Piper Sandler's analysis suggests Oracle could generate approximately $2.2 billion in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue, exceeding consensus estimates, based on capital expenditure to data center capacity conversion, indicating strong growth potential in the cloud market.
- Financial Performance Outlook: Analyst Billy Fitzsimmons noted that despite challenges around capital requirements, AI monetization, and customer concentration, the accelerating growth of OCI and the new CFO's prudent guidance are expected to positively impact the apps business in FY27, enhancing market confidence.
- Capacity Expansion Expectations: Piper Sandler estimates that Oracle could add approximately 2,400 megawatts of cloud computing capacity in fiscal 2027, based on a baseline cost of $46 million per megawatt and IaaS revenue of $13.5 million per megawatt, showcasing the company's expansion potential in cloud infrastructure.
- Growth Momentum Analysis: With projected OCI revenue reaching $41.1 billion in FY27, compared to the current estimate of $20.8 billion, Piper Sandler believes this represents a 12% tailwind for OCI growth, and despite Oracle shares pulling back after fourth-quarter results, the analysis suggests this presents a buying opportunity.










