U.S. Automotive Industry Faces Spring Test Amid Tax Season
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GM?
Source: CNBC
- Tax Impact on Buying Intent: With tax season underway, the average tax refund for Americans is projected to rise by 10.9% to $2,290, potentially encouraging consumers priced out of the new vehicle market to reconsider purchases, thereby offering a short-term sales boost for the automotive industry.
- Historical Sales Trends: March is typically a peak month for U.S. vehicle sales, averaging 9.1% of annual new vehicle sales over the past 12 years, second only to December at 9.3%, suggesting that tax changes could drive a rebound in sales during this critical period.
- Loan Condition Changes: Despite current federal interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, leading to higher financing costs, consumers are agreeing to longer-term loans, with Carmax reporting an average monthly payment of $772 for new vehicles, reflecting buyers' adaptive strategies in a high-price environment.
- Low Consumer Confidence: Even with additional tax funds, consumer confidence fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest since May 2014, indicating that high prices and a weakening labor market negatively impact purchasing decisions, leaving buying intent under significant pressure.
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Analyst Views on GM
Wall Street analysts forecast GM stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 76.890
Low
57.00
Averages
95.06
High
122.00
Current: 76.890
Low
57.00
Averages
95.06
High
122.00
About GM
General Motors Company designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts and provides software-enabled services and subscriptions worldwide. The Company's segments include GMNA, GMI and GM Financial. Its GM North America (GMNA) and GM International (GMI) segment develop, manufacture and/or markets vehicles under the Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC brands. The Company's GM Financial segment provides automotive financing and related services. The Company is also focused on investing in electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous vehicles (Avs), software-enabled services and subscriptions and new business opportunities. The Company's portfolio includes OnStar, GM Energy, GM Insurance, GM Genuine Parts, and the GM Company Store. Its OnStar portfolio offers safety, connectivity and hands-free driver assistance technologies. Its GM Energy provides Home EV Charging, Public EV Charging, Vehicle-To-Home and Energy Storage services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Economic Outlook: Despite the European Central Bank and Bank of England holding rates steady, expectations for future rate hikes have risen, with traders pricing in a 75% chance of an ECB hike in June, which could impact investor confidence moving forward.
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- Speed of Tech Updates: Automakers can quickly deploy tech updates via over-the-air methods, as noted by the CEO of the Audi and SAIC Cooperation Project, highlighting the flexibility to respond to market changes, even as technology becomes increasingly homogeneous, necessitating differentiated competitive strategies.
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- Subscription Business Growth: GM's OnStar and Super Cruise subscription services are rapidly expanding, with management anticipating these will become major profit drivers, particularly as Super Cruise paid subscribers are expected to exceed 850,000 by year-end, indicating robust market demand.
- Robust Revenue Growth: OnStar ended Q1 with deferred revenue of $5.8 billion, up over 50% year-over-year, while recognized revenue surpassed $750 million, a 20% increase, highlighting significant progress in GM's high-margin connected business.
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See More
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