Upstart and Pagaya Compete in AI Lending
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Upstart's Market Performance: Upstart achieved approximately $1.1 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 58.9% increase year-over-year, with a net income of $53.6 million, demonstrating rapid expansion and improved profitability in the AI lending market, thereby enhancing its competitive position in fintech.
- Pagaya's Financial Health: Pagaya generated around $1.3 billion in revenue for FY 2025, reflecting a 25.6% growth from the previous year, with a net income of $81.4 million and a net margin of 6.5%, marking a successful transition from early investment to a mature operating model, increasing its market appeal.
- Risk Analysis: Upstart faces risks from macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates that may dampen loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and the complexities of capital acquisition, which could impact its business stability and market share.
- Valuation Comparison: As of December 2025, Upstart's forward P/E ratio stands at 13.1x and P/S ratio at 2.7x, while Pagaya's forward P/E is 9.7x and P/S ratio is 0.9x, indicating that Pagaya appears more attractive in terms of valuation, potentially offering better long-term returns for investors.
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Analyst Views on UPST
Wall Street analysts forecast UPST stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 32.690
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
Current: 32.690
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
About UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace. The Company’s platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small dollar loans. It applies artificial intelligence models and cloud applications to the process of underwriting consumer credit. Its AI marketplace connects consumers with its lending partner. Its consumers can access Upstart-powered loans via Upstart.com, through a lender-branded product on its lending partners’ own websites, and through auto dealerships that use its Upstart Auto Retail software. Its platform enables lenders provide a product their customers want, rather than letting customers seek loans from competitors. Its cloud-based software platform incorporates technologies and software development approaches to allow for development of new features, such as cloud-native technologies, data integrity and security, and configurable multi-tenant architecture, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Upstart Holdings Expands into Auto and Mortgage Loan Markets
- Market Expansion: Upstart Holdings originated $263 million in auto loans in Q1, quadrupling the year-ago figure, indicating rapid penetration into the auto loan market, although it still represents a small fraction of its $3 billion in unsecured personal loans.
- Significant Mortgage Growth: The company also saw mortgage loan originations reach $143 million in the same quarter, nearly matching auto loans, suggesting a gradual breakthrough in traditional lending sectors with potential for increased market share.
- Huge Market Potential: According to Federal Reserve data, mortgage debt accounts for 70% of total household debt in the U.S., while auto and student loans each represent 9%, highlighting substantial market opportunities for Upstart, particularly in auto and mortgage sectors.
- Accelerating Business Growth: Although Upstart's loan origination numbers in auto and mortgage sectors remain low at 12,202 and 2,300 respectively, the growth pace is accelerating, indicating potential for larger market penetration in the future, requiring shareholder patience.
See More
Reminder for Upstart Holdings Class Action Lawsuit
- Class Action Notification: Rosen Law Firm reminds investors who purchased Upstart Holdings securities between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, to apply as lead plaintiffs by June 8, 2026, to participate in the class action, as those who do not may miss out on potential compensation.
- Fee Arrangement: Investors joining the class action will incur no upfront costs, as the law firm operates on a contingency fee basis, allowing investors to seek compensation without financial burden.
- Lawsuit Background: The lawsuit alleges that Upstart made false and misleading statements during the class period, particularly regarding the accuracy of its Model 22 risk-separation process and inflated loan approval rates, resulting in investor losses when the truth emerged.
- Law Firm's Advantage: Rosen Law Firm specializes in securities class actions and recovered over $438 million for investors in 2019 alone, being ranked first by ISS Securities Class Action Services in 2017, demonstrating its expertise and successful track record in this field.
See More
Faruqi & Faruqi Investigates Upstart Securities Fraud Claims
- Legal Investigation Launched: Faruq & Faruq LLP is investigating potential securities fraud claims against Upstart Holdings, Inc., particularly for investors who purchased securities between May 14 and November 4, 2025, with a deadline for lead plaintiff applications set for June 8, 2026.
- Financial Performance Miss: Upstart reported Q3 2025 revenue of $277 million, falling short of its $280 million guidance, indicating that its Model 22 overreacted to macroeconomic signals, leading to a decline in borrower approval rates and negatively impacting revenue results.
- Revenue Guidance Downgrade: Upstart revised its FY 2025 revenue guidance down to $1.035 billion from $1.055 billion, significantly below the consensus estimate of $1.06 billion, reflecting a pessimistic outlook that could further erode investor confidence.
- Stock Price Plummet: Following the disappointing earnings report on November 5, 2025, Upstart's stock price fell by $4.49, or 9.71%, closing at $41.75, indicating market concerns about its future performance and a loss of investor confidence.
See More
Class Action Notice for Upstart Holdings Investors
- Class Action Deadline: Rosen Law Firm reminds investors who purchased Upstart Holdings securities between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, that they must apply to be lead plaintiffs by June 8, 2026, or risk losing their right to compensation.
- Lawsuit Background: The lawsuit alleges that Upstart made false and misleading statements during the Class Period, particularly regarding the accuracy of its Model 22's risk-separation processes and inflated loan approval rates, resulting in investor losses when the truth emerged.
- Law Firm Credentials: Rosen Law Firm specializes in securities class actions and has achieved the largest settlement against a Chinese company, highlighting its successful track record, which investors should consider when selecting legal counsel.
- Investor Rights Protection: Investors are not represented until a class is certified, allowing them to choose their own counsel or remain absent, but their ability to share in any future recovery is not contingent on being a lead plaintiff.
See More
Upstart and Pagaya Compete in AI Lending
- Upstart's Market Performance: Upstart achieved approximately $1.1 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 58.9% increase year-over-year, with a net income of $53.6 million, demonstrating rapid expansion and improved profitability in the AI lending market, thereby enhancing its competitive position in fintech.
- Pagaya's Financial Health: Pagaya generated around $1.3 billion in revenue for FY 2025, reflecting a 25.6% growth from the previous year, with a net income of $81.4 million and a net margin of 6.5%, marking a successful transition from early investment to a mature operating model, increasing its market appeal.
- Risk Analysis: Upstart faces risks from macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates that may dampen loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and the complexities of capital acquisition, which could impact its business stability and market share.
- Valuation Comparison: As of December 2025, Upstart's forward P/E ratio stands at 13.1x and P/S ratio at 2.7x, while Pagaya's forward P/E is 9.7x and P/S ratio is 0.9x, indicating that Pagaya appears more attractive in terms of valuation, potentially offering better long-term returns for investors.
See More
Upstart vs. Pagaya: AI Lending Competition Analysis
- Revenue Growth Comparison: Upstart's revenue reached approximately $1.1 billion in FY 2025, reflecting a 58.9% increase, while Pagaya generated about $1.3 billion, marking a 25.6% growth, indicating differing growth trajectories and market acceptance in the AI lending space.
- Profitability Analysis: Upstart reported a net income of nearly $53.6 million, showcasing its ability to enhance profitability during expansion, whereas Pagaya achieved a net income of approximately $81.4 million with a net margin of 6.5%, indicating a transition from early investment to a mature operating model.
- Financial Health Status: As of December 2025, Upstart's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 2.3x with a current ratio of 3.0, reflecting its short-term debt repayment capability; in contrast, Pagaya's debt-to-equity ratio was 1.9x with a current ratio of 5.6, suggesting greater financial flexibility.
- Market Risk Assessment: Upstart faces risks from high interest rates that may reduce loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and capital costs, with both companies' market performance closely tied to economic conditions, necessitating cautious evaluation by investors.
See More
Upstart Holdings Expands into Auto and Mortgage Loan Markets
- Market Expansion: Upstart Holdings originated $263 million in auto loans in Q1, quadrupling the year-ago figure, indicating rapid penetration into the auto loan market, although it still represents a small fraction of its $3 billion in unsecured personal loans.
- Significant Mortgage Growth: The company also saw mortgage loan originations reach $143 million in the same quarter, nearly matching auto loans, suggesting a gradual breakthrough in traditional lending sectors with potential for increased market share.
- Huge Market Potential: According to Federal Reserve data, mortgage debt accounts for 70% of total household debt in the U.S., while auto and student loans each represent 9%, highlighting substantial market opportunities for Upstart, particularly in auto and mortgage sectors.
- Accelerating Business Growth: Although Upstart's loan origination numbers in auto and mortgage sectors remain low at 12,202 and 2,300 respectively, the growth pace is accelerating, indicating potential for larger market penetration in the future, requiring shareholder patience.
See More
Reminder for Upstart Holdings Class Action Lawsuit
- Class Action Notification: Rosen Law Firm reminds investors who purchased Upstart Holdings securities between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, to apply as lead plaintiffs by June 8, 2026, to participate in the class action, as those who do not may miss out on potential compensation.
- Fee Arrangement: Investors joining the class action will incur no upfront costs, as the law firm operates on a contingency fee basis, allowing investors to seek compensation without financial burden.
- Lawsuit Background: The lawsuit alleges that Upstart made false and misleading statements during the class period, particularly regarding the accuracy of its Model 22 risk-separation process and inflated loan approval rates, resulting in investor losses when the truth emerged.
- Law Firm's Advantage: Rosen Law Firm specializes in securities class actions and recovered over $438 million for investors in 2019 alone, being ranked first by ISS Securities Class Action Services in 2017, demonstrating its expertise and successful track record in this field.
See More
Faruqi & Faruqi Investigates Upstart Securities Fraud Claims
- Legal Investigation Launched: Faruq & Faruq LLP is investigating potential securities fraud claims against Upstart Holdings, Inc., particularly for investors who purchased securities between May 14 and November 4, 2025, with a deadline for lead plaintiff applications set for June 8, 2026.
- Financial Performance Miss: Upstart reported Q3 2025 revenue of $277 million, falling short of its $280 million guidance, indicating that its Model 22 overreacted to macroeconomic signals, leading to a decline in borrower approval rates and negatively impacting revenue results.
- Revenue Guidance Downgrade: Upstart revised its FY 2025 revenue guidance down to $1.035 billion from $1.055 billion, significantly below the consensus estimate of $1.06 billion, reflecting a pessimistic outlook that could further erode investor confidence.
- Stock Price Plummet: Following the disappointing earnings report on November 5, 2025, Upstart's stock price fell by $4.49, or 9.71%, closing at $41.75, indicating market concerns about its future performance and a loss of investor confidence.
See More
Class Action Notice for Upstart Holdings Investors
- Class Action Deadline: Rosen Law Firm reminds investors who purchased Upstart Holdings securities between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, that they must apply to be lead plaintiffs by June 8, 2026, or risk losing their right to compensation.
- Lawsuit Background: The lawsuit alleges that Upstart made false and misleading statements during the Class Period, particularly regarding the accuracy of its Model 22's risk-separation processes and inflated loan approval rates, resulting in investor losses when the truth emerged.
- Law Firm Credentials: Rosen Law Firm specializes in securities class actions and has achieved the largest settlement against a Chinese company, highlighting its successful track record, which investors should consider when selecting legal counsel.
- Investor Rights Protection: Investors are not represented until a class is certified, allowing them to choose their own counsel or remain absent, but their ability to share in any future recovery is not contingent on being a lead plaintiff.
See More
Upstart and Pagaya Compete in AI Lending
- Upstart's Market Performance: Upstart achieved approximately $1.1 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 58.9% increase year-over-year, with a net income of $53.6 million, demonstrating rapid expansion and improved profitability in the AI lending market, thereby enhancing its competitive position in fintech.
- Pagaya's Financial Health: Pagaya generated around $1.3 billion in revenue for FY 2025, reflecting a 25.6% growth from the previous year, with a net income of $81.4 million and a net margin of 6.5%, marking a successful transition from early investment to a mature operating model, increasing its market appeal.
- Risk Analysis: Upstart faces risks from macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates that may dampen loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and the complexities of capital acquisition, which could impact its business stability and market share.
- Valuation Comparison: As of December 2025, Upstart's forward P/E ratio stands at 13.1x and P/S ratio at 2.7x, while Pagaya's forward P/E is 9.7x and P/S ratio is 0.9x, indicating that Pagaya appears more attractive in terms of valuation, potentially offering better long-term returns for investors.
See More
Upstart vs. Pagaya: AI Lending Competition Analysis
- Revenue Growth Comparison: Upstart's revenue reached approximately $1.1 billion in FY 2025, reflecting a 58.9% increase, while Pagaya generated about $1.3 billion, marking a 25.6% growth, indicating differing growth trajectories and market acceptance in the AI lending space.
- Profitability Analysis: Upstart reported a net income of nearly $53.6 million, showcasing its ability to enhance profitability during expansion, whereas Pagaya achieved a net income of approximately $81.4 million with a net margin of 6.5%, indicating a transition from early investment to a mature operating model.
- Financial Health Status: As of December 2025, Upstart's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 2.3x with a current ratio of 3.0, reflecting its short-term debt repayment capability; in contrast, Pagaya's debt-to-equity ratio was 1.9x with a current ratio of 5.6, suggesting greater financial flexibility.
- Market Risk Assessment: Upstart faces risks from high interest rates that may reduce loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and capital costs, with both companies' market performance closely tied to economic conditions, necessitating cautious evaluation by investors.
See More
