UPS Shows Early Signs of Turnaround with 9.8% Revenue Growth per Package
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 17 2026
0mins
Should l Buy UPS?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Revenue Growth Trend: UPS reported a 5.5% increase in revenue per package in Q2 2025, followed by a 9.8% rise in Q3, indicating early success in its turnaround efforts, which is likely to drive future stock price increases.
- Strategic Adjustment: By proactively reducing the volume of low-margin Amazon packages, UPS is focusing on higher-margin businesses, which, while causing short-term revenue declines, is expected to enhance overall profitability and market competitiveness in the long run.
- Stock Price Recovery: Despite a 53% decline in stock price since 2022, UPS has seen a nearly 30% increase over the past three months, reflecting a gradual market recognition of its turnaround strategy and a restoration of investor confidence.
- High Dividend Risk: With a dividend yield of 6.1% and a payout ratio exceeding 100% over the past 12 months, there is a clear risk of a dividend cut, prompting investors to carefully assess the balance between investment risk and potential returns.
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Analyst Views on UPS
Wall Street analysts forecast UPS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UPS is 107.06 USD with a low forecast of 80.00 USD and a high forecast of 126.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 116.550
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
Current: 116.550
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
About UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc. provides a range of integrated logistics solutions for customers in more than 200 countries and territories. Its U.S. Domestic Package segment offers a range of United States domestic air and ground package transportation services. Its air portfolio offers time-definite, same-day, next-day, two-day and three-day delivery alternatives as well as air cargo services. Its ground network enables customers to ship using its day-definite ground service. UPS SurePost provides residential ground service for customers with non-urgent, lightweight residential shipments. Its International Package segment consists of small package operations in Europe, Indian sub-continent, Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America and Asia. It offers a selection of guaranteed day- and time-definite international shipping services. Its supply chain solutions consist of forwarding, logistics, customized third-party logistics and specialized cold chain transportation solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
UPS Stock Rebounds, Optimistic Outlook Ahead
- Earnings Beat Expectations: UPS reported its Q4 2025 results with revenue of $24.5 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $24 billion, demonstrating resilience amid economic slowdowns and potentially laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Profitability Improvement: The adjusted earnings per share of $2.38 surpassed Wall Street's forecast of $2.20, indicating positive progress in enhancing margins, which may attract more investor interest moving forward.
- Reducing Amazon Deliveries: UPS is cutting back on deliveries for Amazon, a move that may be controversial but is aimed at strengthening margins, aligning with CEO Carol Tome's strategic goals to enhance long-term competitiveness.
- Stock Price Recovery: As of early 2026, UPS shares have risen 17%, with a more than 37% increase over the past six months, significantly enhancing the stock's investment appeal driven by profitability and sustainable growth, while trading at a reasonable 15 times estimated future earnings, indicating further upside potential.
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Trump's Fed Chair Nominee to Resign from UPS Board if Confirmed
- Director Resignation Announcement: Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve chair, will resign from his position on UPS's board if confirmed by the Senate, indicating his commitment to the new role.
- No Disagreement in Resignation: UPS's SEC filing clarifies that Warsh's resignation is not due to any disagreements regarding the company's operations, policies, or practices, reflecting a positive relationship with UPS.
- Market Reaction Monitoring: Warsh's resignation could impact shareholder confidence in UPS, although there are currently no indications that this move will directly affect the company's operations.
- Future Outlook: As Warsh is poised to potentially lead the Federal Reserve, the market will closely watch his influence on monetary policy, with UPS, as a major corporation, likely to experience indirect effects from policy changes.
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- Capital Flow Changes: Goldman Sachs equity strategist Ben Snider indicates that capital is rotating towards sectors perceived as insulated from AI disruption, marking a clear departure from last year's market strategies and reflecting diminished investor confidence in AI themes.
- Cyclical Industry Rally: Despite software stocks experiencing one of their worst weeks since the 2022 rate-hike panic, cyclical and consumer-linked industries have continued their recent rallies, indicating a growing preference for traditional sectors among investors.
- Strong Dow Jones Performance: Amid the decline in software stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied towards all-time highs, suggesting increased investor confidence in industries tied to physical assets and cyclical activity, further emphasizing the market's demand for safety from AI-driven productivity risks.
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- Layoff Surge: U.S. companies announced plans to cut 108,435 jobs in January, a 205% increase from the previous month and the highest in 17 years, indicating significant labor market weakness that may prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts to support the economy.
- Economic Slowdown Signals: While official data suggests a resilient labor market, private reports are raising early warning flags, indicating weakening growth and disinflation that could lead the Federal Reserve to ease policy.
- Bitcoin Price Movement: Bitcoin surged 6%, bouncing from support levels of $60,000-$62,000, but faces critical resistance at $75,000-$80,000, which, if broken, could restore market confidence.
- Technical Indicator Analysis: The RSI at 25.14 indicates Bitcoin's bounce from oversold conditions, yet remains below 50, suggesting overall bearish momentum; if the bounce fails, support levels may drop to $50,000-$55,000.
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Market Comparison of UPS and FedEx
- Revenue Growth Comparison: FedEx achieved a 6.8% year-over-year revenue growth in the latest quarter, while UPS experienced a 3.3% decline, highlighting FedEx's clear advantage in market share and revenue growth.
- Strategic Adjustments: FedEx is spinning off its freight segment to focus on ground and air shipments, with CEO Raj Subramaniam stating successful execution of its growth strategy, whereas UPS is shrinking to enhance profit margins, resulting in lost market share.
- Layoff Impact: UPS plans to lay off 30,000 workers in response to reduced Amazon shipment volumes, which may boost average revenue per delivery but will significantly hinder revenue growth in the short term.
- Profit Margin Changes: FedEx's net income grew by 29% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, while UPS only saw a 4.1% increase, indicating FedEx's leading position in margin expansion despite UPS's higher valuation.
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U.S. Unemployment Claims Rise Unexpectedly Amid Snowstorms
- Increase in Claims: For the week ending January 31, initial unemployment claims rose by 22,000 to 231,000, exceeding economists' expectations of 212,000, indicating a temporary impact from severe weather conditions on the labor market.
- Continued Benefits: The number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits after the initial week increased by 25,000 to 1.844 million, suggesting weak hiring activity despite overall labor market stability.
- Economic Growth Outlook: Despite layoffs from companies like UPS and Amazon, economists remain cautiously optimistic about job growth this year, forecasting an increase of 70,000 nonfarm payrolls, supported by tax cuts boosting consumer spending.
- Interest Rate Policy Impact: The stability in the labor market may encourage the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged through the first half of the year, with the current benchmark rate held in the 3.50%-3.75% range, reflecting a cautious stance on economic prospects.
See More
UPS Stock Rebounds, Optimistic Outlook Ahead
- Earnings Beat Expectations: UPS reported its Q4 2025 results with revenue of $24.5 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $24 billion, demonstrating resilience amid economic slowdowns and potentially laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Profitability Improvement: The adjusted earnings per share of $2.38 surpassed Wall Street's forecast of $2.20, indicating positive progress in enhancing margins, which may attract more investor interest moving forward.
- Reducing Amazon Deliveries: UPS is cutting back on deliveries for Amazon, a move that may be controversial but is aimed at strengthening margins, aligning with CEO Carol Tome's strategic goals to enhance long-term competitiveness.
- Stock Price Recovery: As of early 2026, UPS shares have risen 17%, with a more than 37% increase over the past six months, significantly enhancing the stock's investment appeal driven by profitability and sustainable growth, while trading at a reasonable 15 times estimated future earnings, indicating further upside potential.
See More
Trump's Fed Chair Nominee to Resign from UPS Board if Confirmed
- Director Resignation Announcement: Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve chair, will resign from his position on UPS's board if confirmed by the Senate, indicating his commitment to the new role.
- No Disagreement in Resignation: UPS's SEC filing clarifies that Warsh's resignation is not due to any disagreements regarding the company's operations, policies, or practices, reflecting a positive relationship with UPS.
- Market Reaction Monitoring: Warsh's resignation could impact shareholder confidence in UPS, although there are currently no indications that this move will directly affect the company's operations.
- Future Outlook: As Warsh is poised to potentially lead the Federal Reserve, the market will closely watch his influence on monetary policy, with UPS, as a major corporation, likely to experience indirect effects from policy changes.
See More
AI-Exposed Stocks Face Challenges Amid Market Shift
- Market Sentiment Shift: As fears grow that artificial intelligence could disrupt demand rather than enhance it, software and AI-exposed stocks have faced significant sell-offs at the start of 2023, particularly in February, leading investors to reassess their risk exposure.
- Capital Flow Changes: Goldman Sachs equity strategist Ben Snider indicates that capital is rotating towards sectors perceived as insulated from AI disruption, marking a clear departure from last year's market strategies and reflecting diminished investor confidence in AI themes.
- Cyclical Industry Rally: Despite software stocks experiencing one of their worst weeks since the 2022 rate-hike panic, cyclical and consumer-linked industries have continued their recent rallies, indicating a growing preference for traditional sectors among investors.
- Strong Dow Jones Performance: Amid the decline in software stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied towards all-time highs, suggesting increased investor confidence in industries tied to physical assets and cyclical activity, further emphasizing the market's demand for safety from AI-driven productivity risks.
See More
Surge in U.S. Layoffs Fuels Bitcoin Rally
- Layoff Surge: U.S. companies announced plans to cut 108,435 jobs in January, a 205% increase from the previous month and the highest in 17 years, indicating significant labor market weakness that may prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts to support the economy.
- Economic Slowdown Signals: While official data suggests a resilient labor market, private reports are raising early warning flags, indicating weakening growth and disinflation that could lead the Federal Reserve to ease policy.
- Bitcoin Price Movement: Bitcoin surged 6%, bouncing from support levels of $60,000-$62,000, but faces critical resistance at $75,000-$80,000, which, if broken, could restore market confidence.
- Technical Indicator Analysis: The RSI at 25.14 indicates Bitcoin's bounce from oversold conditions, yet remains below 50, suggesting overall bearish momentum; if the bounce fails, support levels may drop to $50,000-$55,000.
See More
Market Comparison of UPS and FedEx
- Revenue Growth Comparison: FedEx achieved a 6.8% year-over-year revenue growth in the latest quarter, while UPS experienced a 3.3% decline, highlighting FedEx's clear advantage in market share and revenue growth.
- Strategic Adjustments: FedEx is spinning off its freight segment to focus on ground and air shipments, with CEO Raj Subramaniam stating successful execution of its growth strategy, whereas UPS is shrinking to enhance profit margins, resulting in lost market share.
- Layoff Impact: UPS plans to lay off 30,000 workers in response to reduced Amazon shipment volumes, which may boost average revenue per delivery but will significantly hinder revenue growth in the short term.
- Profit Margin Changes: FedEx's net income grew by 29% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, while UPS only saw a 4.1% increase, indicating FedEx's leading position in margin expansion despite UPS's higher valuation.
See More
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rise Unexpectedly Amid Snowstorms
- Increase in Claims: For the week ending January 31, initial unemployment claims rose by 22,000 to 231,000, exceeding economists' expectations of 212,000, indicating a temporary impact from severe weather conditions on the labor market.
- Continued Benefits: The number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits after the initial week increased by 25,000 to 1.844 million, suggesting weak hiring activity despite overall labor market stability.
- Economic Growth Outlook: Despite layoffs from companies like UPS and Amazon, economists remain cautiously optimistic about job growth this year, forecasting an increase of 70,000 nonfarm payrolls, supported by tax cuts boosting consumer spending.
- Interest Rate Policy Impact: The stability in the labor market may encourage the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged through the first half of the year, with the current benchmark rate held in the 3.50%-3.75% range, reflecting a cautious stance on economic prospects.
See More
