Unum Group Faces Challenges After Strong Five-Year Performance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Should l Buy UNM?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Performance Decline: Unum Group's fourth-quarter 2025 results fell short of expectations, causing the stock to drop about 6% year-to-date, despite a remarkable 180% increase over the past five years, indicating the company is facing short-term challenges.
- Cash Flow Return Plan: The company plans to return 100% of projected free cash flow to shareholders in 2026 through buybacks and dividends, a strategy that not only reflects management's confidence in the stock but could also enhance earnings per share (EPS) by reducing the outstanding share count, potentially attracting more investors.
- Premium Growth Outlook: In 2025, Unum reported core premium growth of 4.4%, consistent with 4.5% in 2024, and expects growth between 4% and 7% in 2026; exceeding this guidance could lead to analyst upgrades in ratings and price targets, further driving the stock price higher.
- Margin Stability: Although the disability benefit ratio rose to 62.4% in 2025, management anticipates a decline to between 62% and 64% in 2026, achieving this could enhance underwriting profitability and support the company's EPS growth outlook of 8% to 12%, potentially reversing the recent stock price downturn.
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Analyst Views on UNM
Wall Street analysts forecast UNM stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 73.260
Low
85.00
Averages
94.00
High
115.00
Current: 73.260
Low
85.00
Averages
94.00
High
115.00
About UNM
Unum Group is an international provider of workplace benefits and services. The Company, through its Unum and Colonial Life brands, offers disability, life, accident, critical illness, dental, and vision insurance; leave and absence management support; and behavioral health services. The Company's segments include Unum US, Unum International, and Colonial Life. Unum US segment is comprised of group disability, group life and accidental death and dismemberment, and supplemental and voluntary lines of business. The supplemental and voluntary line of business includes voluntary benefits, individual disability, and dental and vision products. Unum International segment includes its operations in the United Kingdom and Poland. Unum Poland's business primarily includes insurance for individual and group life with accident and health riders. Colonial Life segment includes the accident, sickness, and disability product line, life product line, and cancer and critical illness product line.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Unum Group Faces Challenges After Strong Five-Year Performance
- Performance Decline: Unum Group's fourth-quarter 2025 results fell short of expectations, causing the stock to drop about 6% year-to-date, despite a remarkable 180% increase over the past five years, indicating the company is facing short-term challenges.
- Cash Flow Return Plan: The company plans to return 100% of projected free cash flow to shareholders in 2026 through buybacks and dividends, a strategy that not only reflects management's confidence in the stock but could also enhance earnings per share (EPS) by reducing the outstanding share count, potentially attracting more investors.
- Premium Growth Outlook: In 2025, Unum reported core premium growth of 4.4%, consistent with 4.5% in 2024, and expects growth between 4% and 7% in 2026; exceeding this guidance could lead to analyst upgrades in ratings and price targets, further driving the stock price higher.
- Margin Stability: Although the disability benefit ratio rose to 62.4% in 2025, management anticipates a decline to between 62% and 64% in 2026, achieving this could enhance underwriting profitability and support the company's EPS growth outlook of 8% to 12%, potentially reversing the recent stock price downturn.
See More
Unum Group's Stock Offers Investment Opportunities Amidst Recent Decline
- Stock Buyback Plan: Unum Group plans to return 100% of projected free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in 2026, indicating management's belief in the stock's undervaluation, which could support share prices during market downturns and attract more investors.
- Premium Growth Expectations: In 2025, Unum reported core premium growth of 4.4%, with 2026 projections between 4% and 7%; achieving the upper end could exceed analyst models, prompting rating and price target revisions that attract more buyers.
- Margin Stabilization: Despite a rise in the disability benefit ratio to 62.4% in 2025, management expects it to stabilize between 62% and 64% in 2026, which could enhance underwriting profitability and support the company's projected 8% to 12% EPS growth outlook.
- Long-Term Investment Potential: Unum's stability and predictability have led to a 180% stock price increase over the past five years; despite recent performance issues, sustained improvements could present a compelling buying opportunity for investors.
See More
Unum Group Reports Q4 Earnings with Adjusted EPS Guidance for 2026
- 2025 Adjusted EPS: Unum Group reported an adjusted EPS of $8.13 for 2025, falling short of expectations primarily due to increased benefits experience, with management redefining the 2025 base to $7.93 and guiding for 2026 adjusted EPS between $8.60 and $8.90, indicating potential for future profitability.
- Group Disability Pressure: The benefit ratio for Group Disability was 62.4% for 2025 and 64.2% in Q4, leading to a 22.8% year-over-year decline in adjusted operating income; however, management expects the benefit ratio to stabilize between 62% and 64% in 2026, reflecting confidence in future performance.
- Capital Return Plans: Unum raised its dividend by 10% and repurchased $1 billion in stock in 2025, with plans for another ~$1 billion in buybacks and a 10% dividend increase in 2026, targeting 100% of free cash flow (approximately $1.2 to $1.4 billion) for shareholder returns, demonstrating strong capital management capabilities.
- Digital Strategy: Unum emphasized its digital investments as a competitive advantage, with over one-third of the core premium base linked to customers utilizing “leading digital capabilities,” and management noted that customers using HR Connect have close ratios nearly double those of non-HR Connect customers, highlighting the positive impact of digitalization on business growth.
See More
Unum Group Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Financial Performance Overview: Unum Group reported an adjusted EPS of $8.13 for 2025, down year-over-year primarily due to higher-than-expected benefits experience, although core operations premium grew nearly 4.5%, indicating resilience and growth potential in the market.
- Shareholder Return Plans: The company announced a 10% increase in dividends and plans to repurchase $1 billion in stock, reflecting a strong capital position and management's confidence in future growth, with EPS expected to grow by 8% to 12% in 2026.
- International Business Growth: The international segment achieved a premium growth of 11.5% in Q4, reaching $283.9 million, with a full-year increase of 10% to $1.1 billion, although overall earnings declined due to unfavorable claims experience, highlighting market complexities and challenges.
- Future Outlook: Unum expects revenue growth in the range of 4% to 7% for 2026, with management focusing on core business and digital investments to enhance profitability, aiming to bolster investor confidence through ongoing risk management and capital return strategies.
See More
Unum Reports Q4 2023 Earnings Miss with Positive Outlook
- Earnings Miss: Unum's Q4 2023 non-GAAP EPS of $1.92 fell short by $0.19, indicating pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence and stock performance.
- Flat Revenue: The company reported revenue of $3.24 billion for Q4, flat year-over-year but missing expectations by $50 million, reflecting intensified market competition and weak customer demand, which could pose challenges for future growth.
- Book Value Improvement: Book value per common share increased to $67.11, up 9.3% year-over-year, while the book value excluding accumulated other comprehensive income grew 3.3% to $78.02, indicating improved asset quality that may bolster investor confidence.
- Positive Outlook: The company anticipates core operations premium growth of 4% to 7% into 2026, with after-tax adjusted operating income per share projected between $8.60 and $8.90, suggesting a positive long-term outlook that could attract attention from long-term investors.
See More
Unum Scheduled to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 5th
- Earnings Announcement Date: Unum (UNM) is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 5th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $2.11, reflecting a 3.9% year-over-year growth, indicating stability in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $3.29 billion, representing a 1.5% year-over-year increase, which, while modest, still demonstrates the company's ongoing presence and adaptability in the market.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Unum has exceeded EPS and revenue estimates 38% of the time, highlighting the company's volatility in financial forecasting and market adaptability.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and ten downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have not seen any upward revisions and have experienced four downward adjustments, suggesting a cautious market outlook for Unum's future performance.
See More
Unum Group Faces Challenges After Strong Five-Year Performance
- Performance Decline: Unum Group's fourth-quarter 2025 results fell short of expectations, causing the stock to drop about 6% year-to-date, despite a remarkable 180% increase over the past five years, indicating the company is facing short-term challenges.
- Cash Flow Return Plan: The company plans to return 100% of projected free cash flow to shareholders in 2026 through buybacks and dividends, a strategy that not only reflects management's confidence in the stock but could also enhance earnings per share (EPS) by reducing the outstanding share count, potentially attracting more investors.
- Premium Growth Outlook: In 2025, Unum reported core premium growth of 4.4%, consistent with 4.5% in 2024, and expects growth between 4% and 7% in 2026; exceeding this guidance could lead to analyst upgrades in ratings and price targets, further driving the stock price higher.
- Margin Stability: Although the disability benefit ratio rose to 62.4% in 2025, management anticipates a decline to between 62% and 64% in 2026, achieving this could enhance underwriting profitability and support the company's EPS growth outlook of 8% to 12%, potentially reversing the recent stock price downturn.
See More
Unum Group's Stock Offers Investment Opportunities Amidst Recent Decline
- Stock Buyback Plan: Unum Group plans to return 100% of projected free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in 2026, indicating management's belief in the stock's undervaluation, which could support share prices during market downturns and attract more investors.
- Premium Growth Expectations: In 2025, Unum reported core premium growth of 4.4%, with 2026 projections between 4% and 7%; achieving the upper end could exceed analyst models, prompting rating and price target revisions that attract more buyers.
- Margin Stabilization: Despite a rise in the disability benefit ratio to 62.4% in 2025, management expects it to stabilize between 62% and 64% in 2026, which could enhance underwriting profitability and support the company's projected 8% to 12% EPS growth outlook.
- Long-Term Investment Potential: Unum's stability and predictability have led to a 180% stock price increase over the past five years; despite recent performance issues, sustained improvements could present a compelling buying opportunity for investors.
See More
Unum Group Reports Q4 Earnings with Adjusted EPS Guidance for 2026
- 2025 Adjusted EPS: Unum Group reported an adjusted EPS of $8.13 for 2025, falling short of expectations primarily due to increased benefits experience, with management redefining the 2025 base to $7.93 and guiding for 2026 adjusted EPS between $8.60 and $8.90, indicating potential for future profitability.
- Group Disability Pressure: The benefit ratio for Group Disability was 62.4% for 2025 and 64.2% in Q4, leading to a 22.8% year-over-year decline in adjusted operating income; however, management expects the benefit ratio to stabilize between 62% and 64% in 2026, reflecting confidence in future performance.
- Capital Return Plans: Unum raised its dividend by 10% and repurchased $1 billion in stock in 2025, with plans for another ~$1 billion in buybacks and a 10% dividend increase in 2026, targeting 100% of free cash flow (approximately $1.2 to $1.4 billion) for shareholder returns, demonstrating strong capital management capabilities.
- Digital Strategy: Unum emphasized its digital investments as a competitive advantage, with over one-third of the core premium base linked to customers utilizing “leading digital capabilities,” and management noted that customers using HR Connect have close ratios nearly double those of non-HR Connect customers, highlighting the positive impact of digitalization on business growth.
See More
Unum Group Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Financial Performance Overview: Unum Group reported an adjusted EPS of $8.13 for 2025, down year-over-year primarily due to higher-than-expected benefits experience, although core operations premium grew nearly 4.5%, indicating resilience and growth potential in the market.
- Shareholder Return Plans: The company announced a 10% increase in dividends and plans to repurchase $1 billion in stock, reflecting a strong capital position and management's confidence in future growth, with EPS expected to grow by 8% to 12% in 2026.
- International Business Growth: The international segment achieved a premium growth of 11.5% in Q4, reaching $283.9 million, with a full-year increase of 10% to $1.1 billion, although overall earnings declined due to unfavorable claims experience, highlighting market complexities and challenges.
- Future Outlook: Unum expects revenue growth in the range of 4% to 7% for 2026, with management focusing on core business and digital investments to enhance profitability, aiming to bolster investor confidence through ongoing risk management and capital return strategies.
See More
Unum Reports Q4 2023 Earnings Miss with Positive Outlook
- Earnings Miss: Unum's Q4 2023 non-GAAP EPS of $1.92 fell short by $0.19, indicating pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence and stock performance.
- Flat Revenue: The company reported revenue of $3.24 billion for Q4, flat year-over-year but missing expectations by $50 million, reflecting intensified market competition and weak customer demand, which could pose challenges for future growth.
- Book Value Improvement: Book value per common share increased to $67.11, up 9.3% year-over-year, while the book value excluding accumulated other comprehensive income grew 3.3% to $78.02, indicating improved asset quality that may bolster investor confidence.
- Positive Outlook: The company anticipates core operations premium growth of 4% to 7% into 2026, with after-tax adjusted operating income per share projected between $8.60 and $8.90, suggesting a positive long-term outlook that could attract attention from long-term investors.
See More
Unum Scheduled to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 5th
- Earnings Announcement Date: Unum (UNM) is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 5th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $2.11, reflecting a 3.9% year-over-year growth, indicating stability in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $3.29 billion, representing a 1.5% year-over-year increase, which, while modest, still demonstrates the company's ongoing presence and adaptability in the market.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Unum has exceeded EPS and revenue estimates 38% of the time, highlighting the company's volatility in financial forecasting and market adaptability.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and ten downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have not seen any upward revisions and have experienced four downward adjustments, suggesting a cautious market outlook for Unum's future performance.
See More
