Trump's Policies Boost Pharma Sector Recovery, Projected Revenue Growth in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Drug Pricing Agreements: The drug pricing agreements under Trump's 'most-favored-nation' policy reduce uncertainty and are expected to have a modest impact on pharmaceutical companies, particularly with price adjustments for Medicaid patients influencing future business strategies.
- Patent Expiration Strategy: Merck anticipates offsetting losses from upcoming patent expirations by launching new products, projecting $70 billion in sales by 2030, nearly double the expected sales of Keytruda in 2028 before its patent expires.
- Acquisition Intentions: Pharmaceutical giants are actively seeking acquisition opportunities to compensate for an estimated $300 billion in potential revenue losses, with Merck indicating a willingness to pursue deals in the $15 billion range, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Vaccine Policy Concerns: Despite heightened concerns over Trump's vaccine policies, Pfizer's CEO stated that these changes would not impact the company's financial performance, believing that the decline in vaccination rates could lead to increased diseases, but he is confident this trend will self-correct.
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Analyst Views on AZN
Wall Street analysts forecast AZN stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 200.730
Low
157.61
Averages
213.64
High
252.18
Current: 200.730
Low
157.61
Averages
213.64
High
252.18
About AZN
AstraZeneca PLC is a United Kingdom-based science-led biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of prescription medicines. The Company operates across therapy areas, including Oncology; Cardiovascular, Renal and Metabolism (CVRM); Respiratory and Immunology (R&I); Vaccines and Immune Therapies (V&I), and Rare Disease. In the Oncology area, its key products include Tagrisso, Imfinzi, Calquence, Lynparza, and Enhertu. The key products of CVRM area include Farxiga/Forxiga, Brilinta/Brilique, Crestor, and Lokelma. In the R&I area, the key products are Symbicort, Fasenra, Breztri/Trixeo, and Tezspire. In the V&I Therapies area, the products are Beyfortus and FluMist. The products in the Rare Disease area are Ultomiris, Soliris, Strensiq, and Koselugo. It has about 191 projects in its development pipeline, including 19 new molecular entities (NMEs) in the late-stage pipeline. The Company distributes its products in over 125 countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Patient Population Size: By 2026, over 200,000 hepatocellular carcinoma patients are expected to be eligible for embolisation, a standard treatment that blocks blood supply to tumors and delivers chemotherapy directly to the liver, highlighting the market potential for this drug combination.
- Global Trial Scope: The EMERALD-3 trial was conducted across 171 centers in 22 countries, involving 760 patients with unresectable HCC, utilizing a randomized, open-label design that ensures the broad applicability and reliability of the results.
- Future Plans: AstraZeneca plans to present the trial data at an upcoming medical meeting and share it with global regulatory authorities, indicating the company's confidence in the therapy and its potential application in early-stage liver cancer treatment.
See More
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- Cost-Effectiveness Standard Increase: The deal mandates the UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) to raise its cost-effectiveness threshold by 25%, which will encourage pharmaceutical companies to adjust drug pricing competitively, impacting market supply.
- New Drug Price Increase: The National Health Service (NHS) will pay 25% higher list prices for new prescription drugs, potentially increasing the financial burden on patients while also affecting pharmaceutical companies' profit structures.
- Increased R&D Investment: The UK will raise its drug R&D spending from 0.3% to 0.6% of GDP, a strategic investment aimed at enhancing the UK's competitiveness in the global pharmaceutical industry and fostering innovation and long-term growth.
See More
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- Combination Therapy Evaluation: The trial assessed the efficacy of Imfinzi in combination with CTLA-4 blocker Imjudo, transarterial chemoembolization, and lenvatinib, enrolling 760 patients with unresectable HCC, showcasing the effectiveness of the combination regimen.
- Safety Analysis: An interim analysis revealed that the safety profile of the Imfinzi combination therapy was consistent with the established safety profiles of individual drugs, with no new safety events reported, indicating its clinical safety.
- Regulatory Discussions Ongoing: AstraZeneca is in discussions with global regulatory authorities regarding these positive data while awaiting final results on key secondary endpoints to further confirm the trend in overall survival.
See More
AstraZeneca's Investment Outlook for 2026
- Rating Maintenance and Price Target: On March 27, 2026, Deutsche Bank maintained a Sell rating on AstraZeneca (AZN) with a price target of £115, reflecting a cautious outlook that may affect investor confidence in the stock's future performance.
- Price Target Increase: Guggenheim recently raised AstraZeneca's price target from 16,000 GBp to 16,500 GBp, with analyst Seamus Fernandez maintaining a Buy rating, indicating optimistic expectations for the company's future financial performance, which could attract more investor interest.
- Positive Clinical Trial Results: On March 31, 2026, AstraZeneca announced positive Phase III results for efzimfotase alfa, involving 196 patients across 22 countries, demonstrating significant bone health improvements, which may enhance the company's competitive position in the rare disease market.
- Strategic Implications of Trial Results: Although the HICKORY trial missed its primary mobility endpoint in adults, it showed meaningful functional gains in pediatric-onset subgroups, indicating AstraZeneca's potential in pediatric treatments, which could lay the groundwork for future product development and market expansion.
See More
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- Clinical Trial Success: AstraZeneca's efzimfotase alfa demonstrated positive results in a Phase III clinical trial for a broad hypophosphatasia patient population, showing significant improvement in bone health at week 25 compared to placebo, indicating the drug's potential in treatment.
- Pediatric Trial Outcomes: The MULBERRY Phase III trial results indicated that children who had not previously been treated with Strensiq achieved the primary endpoint after using efzimfotase alfa, further validating the drug's efficacy and safety in pediatric patients.
- Good Safety Profile: Positive results from the CHESTNUT Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa was well-tolerated in pediatric patients switching from Strensiq and maintained the treatment benefits on bone health at week 25, demonstrating its feasibility in clinical applications.
- Adolescent Trial Results: The HICKORY Phase III trial showed numerical improvement in adolescents and adults, but did not achieve statistical significance in the primary endpoint of the six-minute walk test, suggesting potential efficacy differences across age groups.
See More
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- Capital Returns and Reinvestment: The company increased its dividend to $3.30 per share for 2026 while committing to a roughly one-third increase in capital expenditures, alongside a $15 billion investment in China through 2030, signaling management's confidence in long-term growth prospects.
- Pipeline Depth and Market Share: AstraZeneca recorded 16 positive Phase 3 readouts and 43 regulatory approvals in 2025, with over 20 Phase 3 trial readouts expected in 2026, each approval representing a potential new revenue stream and reinforcing its leadership position in the oncology market.
See More
AstraZeneca Reports Positive Results from Liver Cancer Trial
- Significant Trial Results: AstraZeneca's EMERALD-3 Phase III trial demonstrates that the combination of Imfinzi with Imjudo, lenvatinib, and TACE significantly improves progression-free survival compared to TACE alone in patients with unresectable liver cancer, indicating the combination therapy's important clinical significance in enhancing patient outcomes.
- Patient Population Size: By 2026, over 200,000 hepatocellular carcinoma patients are expected to be eligible for embolisation, a standard treatment that blocks blood supply to tumors and delivers chemotherapy directly to the liver, highlighting the market potential for this drug combination.
- Global Trial Scope: The EMERALD-3 trial was conducted across 171 centers in 22 countries, involving 760 patients with unresectable HCC, utilizing a randomized, open-label design that ensures the broad applicability and reliability of the results.
- Future Plans: AstraZeneca plans to present the trial data at an upcoming medical meeting and share it with global regulatory authorities, indicating the company's confidence in the therapy and its potential application in early-stage liver cancer treatment.
See More
UK and US Reach Drug Tariff Exemption Agreement
- Drug Tariff Agreement: The UK government has reached an agreement with the US that UK-made drugs will be tariff-free for the next three years, significantly boosting UK pharmaceutical exports, which exceed £5 billion annually.
- Cost-Effectiveness Standard Increase: The deal mandates the UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) to raise its cost-effectiveness threshold by 25%, which will encourage pharmaceutical companies to adjust drug pricing competitively, impacting market supply.
- New Drug Price Increase: The National Health Service (NHS) will pay 25% higher list prices for new prescription drugs, potentially increasing the financial burden on patients while also affecting pharmaceutical companies' profit structures.
- Increased R&D Investment: The UK will raise its drug R&D spending from 0.3% to 0.6% of GDP, a strategic investment aimed at enhancing the UK's competitiveness in the global pharmaceutical industry and fostering innovation and long-term growth.
See More
AstraZeneca's Imfinzi Shows Success in Liver Cancer Trial
- Clinical Trial Success: AstraZeneca's antitumor agent Imfinzi demonstrated significant improvement in progression-free survival in the EMERALD-3 Phase 3 trial for hepatocellular carcinoma patients, indicating its potential in treating this cancer type.
- Combination Therapy Evaluation: The trial assessed the efficacy of Imfinzi in combination with CTLA-4 blocker Imjudo, transarterial chemoembolization, and lenvatinib, enrolling 760 patients with unresectable HCC, showcasing the effectiveness of the combination regimen.
- Safety Analysis: An interim analysis revealed that the safety profile of the Imfinzi combination therapy was consistent with the established safety profiles of individual drugs, with no new safety events reported, indicating its clinical safety.
- Regulatory Discussions Ongoing: AstraZeneca is in discussions with global regulatory authorities regarding these positive data while awaiting final results on key secondary endpoints to further confirm the trend in overall survival.
See More
AstraZeneca's Investment Outlook for 2026
- Rating Maintenance and Price Target: On March 27, 2026, Deutsche Bank maintained a Sell rating on AstraZeneca (AZN) with a price target of £115, reflecting a cautious outlook that may affect investor confidence in the stock's future performance.
- Price Target Increase: Guggenheim recently raised AstraZeneca's price target from 16,000 GBp to 16,500 GBp, with analyst Seamus Fernandez maintaining a Buy rating, indicating optimistic expectations for the company's future financial performance, which could attract more investor interest.
- Positive Clinical Trial Results: On March 31, 2026, AstraZeneca announced positive Phase III results for efzimfotase alfa, involving 196 patients across 22 countries, demonstrating significant bone health improvements, which may enhance the company's competitive position in the rare disease market.
- Strategic Implications of Trial Results: Although the HICKORY trial missed its primary mobility endpoint in adults, it showed meaningful functional gains in pediatric-onset subgroups, indicating AstraZeneca's potential in pediatric treatments, which could lay the groundwork for future product development and market expansion.
See More
AstraZeneca's efzimfotase alfa Phase III Trials Show Positive Results
- Clinical Trial Success: AstraZeneca's efzimfotase alfa demonstrated positive results in a Phase III clinical trial for a broad hypophosphatasia patient population, showing significant improvement in bone health at week 25 compared to placebo, indicating the drug's potential in treatment.
- Pediatric Trial Outcomes: The MULBERRY Phase III trial results indicated that children who had not previously been treated with Strensiq achieved the primary endpoint after using efzimfotase alfa, further validating the drug's efficacy and safety in pediatric patients.
- Good Safety Profile: Positive results from the CHESTNUT Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa was well-tolerated in pediatric patients switching from Strensiq and maintained the treatment benefits on bone health at week 25, demonstrating its feasibility in clinical applications.
- Adolescent Trial Results: The HICKORY Phase III trial showed numerical improvement in adolescents and adults, but did not achieve statistical significance in the primary endpoint of the six-minute walk test, suggesting potential efficacy differences across age groups.
See More
AstraZeneca Reports 8% Revenue Growth for FY2025 Driven by Oncology
- Strong Oncology Growth: AstraZeneca reported FY2025 revenue of $58.74 billion, reflecting an 8% increase at constant exchange rates, with the oncology segment generating $25.618 billion, up 17%, driven by blockbuster drugs Tagrisso and Enhertu, which contributed $7.254 billion and $2.775 billion respectively, the latter seeing a 40% increase.
- Positive Price Target Adjustment: Guggenheim raised AstraZeneca's price target from 16,000 GBp to 16,500 GBp, reflecting optimism about the company's upcoming 20+ Phase 3 trial readouts expected in 2026, which could further drive stock price appreciation.
- Capital Returns and Reinvestment: The company increased its dividend to $3.30 per share for 2026 while committing to a roughly one-third increase in capital expenditures, alongside a $15 billion investment in China through 2030, signaling management's confidence in long-term growth prospects.
- Pipeline Depth and Market Share: AstraZeneca recorded 16 positive Phase 3 readouts and 43 regulatory approvals in 2025, with over 20 Phase 3 trial readouts expected in 2026, each approval representing a potential new revenue stream and reinforcing its leadership position in the oncology market.
See More
