Trump Plans to Reduce Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Amid Affordability Crisis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to reduce some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods as he battles an affordability crisis, Aime Williams and Andy Bounds of The Financial Times reports. The Trump administration is reviewing products affected by the up to 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, planning to exempt some items and launch more targeted security probes into specific goods, three people familiar with the matter told the Times. Publicly traded companies in the space include ArcelorMittal (MT), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD) and U.S. Steel (X).
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Analyst Views on MT
Wall Street analysts forecast MT stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 61.590
Low
39.00
Averages
44.67
High
49.00
Current: 61.590
Low
39.00
Averages
44.67
High
49.00
About MT
ArcelorMittal SA is a Luxembourg-based holding company. The Company, via its subsidiaries, owns and operates steel, iron ore manufacturing and coal mining facilities in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. The Company is organized in five operating segments: NAFTA; Brazil; Europe; Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS), and Mining. The NAFTA, Brazil, Europe, and ACIS segments produce flat, long, and tubular products including slabs, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, coated steel products, among others. The Mining segment provides steel operations and comprises all mines owned by the Company in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Stake Proportion Rise: Following the purchase, Impala's stake in Century Aluminum reached 21.17%, making it the fund's largest single investment, reflecting a bullish outlook on the aluminum sector amidst current market volatility.
- Strong Financial Performance: Century Aluminum's latest earnings report revealed net sales of $632.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $101.1 million, significantly up from the previous quarter, showcasing improvements in aluminum pricing and operational leverage.
- Outstanding Market Performance: As of February 12, 2026, Century Aluminum's stock price stood at $49.70, up 146.5% over the past year, greatly outperforming the S&P 500, highlighting its competitive edge and investment appeal in the industry.
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Cleveland-Cliffs Shares Plunge 32.5% Amid Earnings Report
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- Contract Termination Impact: The company ended a five-year steel slab contract with ArcelorMittal USA in 2025 due to unprofitability driven by tariff-induced price gaps, a decision that will affect future revenue streams significantly.
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- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite current challenges, management anticipates a strong recovery in 2026, with automotive volumes rebounding and rising steel prices expected to drive revenue growth, particularly with hot-rolled oil-steel prices projected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially.
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- Stock Price Plunge: Following the disappointing earnings report, Cleveland-Cliffs' stock plummeted 32.5% at its lowest point this week, severely undermining investor confidence, particularly after CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares, which intensified market jitters.
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- Policy Benefits: Cleveland-Cliffs' Canadian subsidiary Stelco is poised to benefit from the Canadian government's restrictions on steel imports starting December 2025, which will help improve its market conditions and enhance profitability.
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- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded ArcelorMittal's rating from Hold to Buy, raising the price target from €44 to €52, indicating analysts' confidence in the company's market performance driven by favorable policy changes.
- Import Tariff Changes: By July 2026, the EU is expected to reduce import tariff rate quotas by 50% and double tariffs on out-of-quota volumes to 50%, which could lead to a reduction of 10 million tons in EU steel imports, benefiting ArcelorMittal as the largest steel producer in the region.
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See More
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- Electrical Steel Production Expansion: Additionally, the company is investing €500 million in a new electrical steel production unit in Dunkirk, further diversifying its product offerings in Europe and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
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See More
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- Share Increase: Impala Asset Management disclosed a purchase of 168,805 shares of Century Aluminum in Q4 2026, valued at approximately $5.27 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's market position.
- Stake Proportion Rise: Following the purchase, Impala's stake in Century Aluminum reached 21.17%, making it the fund's largest single investment, reflecting a bullish outlook on the aluminum sector amidst current market volatility.
- Strong Financial Performance: Century Aluminum's latest earnings report revealed net sales of $632.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $101.1 million, significantly up from the previous quarter, showcasing improvements in aluminum pricing and operational leverage.
- Outstanding Market Performance: As of February 12, 2026, Century Aluminum's stock price stood at $49.70, up 146.5% over the past year, greatly outperforming the S&P 500, highlighting its competitive edge and investment appeal in the industry.
See More
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- Significant Losses: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a net loss of $1.4 billion for 2025, nearly double the loss from 2024, reflecting dual pressures from weak automotive market demand and declining steel prices, which has left investors concerned about future prospects.
- Contract Termination Impact: The company ended a five-year steel slab contract with ArcelorMittal USA in 2025 due to unprofitability driven by tariff-induced price gaps, a decision that will affect future revenue streams significantly.
- Executive Sell-off Triggers Panic: CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares at an average price of $12.42 on February 11, and while executive sales may be for tax planning, the magnitude of the sale during a stock slump has unsettled investors.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite current challenges, management anticipates a strong recovery in 2026, with automotive volumes rebounding and rising steel prices expected to drive revenue growth, particularly with hot-rolled oil-steel prices projected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially.
See More
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- Massive Loss: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a staggering $1.4 billion net loss for 2025, nearly double the loss from 2024, highlighting the company's vulnerability under the dual pressures of weak automotive demand and declining steel prices.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the disappointing earnings report, Cleveland-Cliffs' stock plummeted 32.5% at its lowest point this week, severely undermining investor confidence, particularly after CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares, which intensified market jitters.
- Recovery Expectations: Despite the poor performance in 2025, management anticipates a strong recovery in 2026, driven by rebounding automotive volumes and rising steel prices, with hot-rolled oil-steel prices expected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially in the first quarter.
- Policy Benefits: Cleveland-Cliffs' Canadian subsidiary Stelco is poised to benefit from the Canadian government's restrictions on steel imports starting December 2025, which will help improve its market conditions and enhance profitability.
See More
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- Stock Surge: ArcelorMittal (MT) rose 4.9% in Wednesday's trading, reaching its highest level in nearly 15 years, reflecting market optimism regarding its future performance, particularly in light of the improving outlook for the European steel industry.
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded ArcelorMittal's rating from Hold to Buy, raising the price target from €44 to €52, indicating analysts' confidence in the company's market performance driven by favorable policy changes.
- Import Tariff Changes: By July 2026, the EU is expected to reduce import tariff rate quotas by 50% and double tariffs on out-of-quota volumes to 50%, which could lead to a reduction of 10 million tons in EU steel imports, benefiting ArcelorMittal as the largest steel producer in the region.
- Capacity Recovery Plan: ArcelorMittal stated it can quickly bring idle capacity back online without significant capital expenditures, expecting to add 1 million tons of electric arc furnace production in 2026 and further solidifying its market share by re-rolling imported slabs from Brazil.
See More
ArcelorMittal Invests €1.3 Billion in Electric Arc Furnace in France
- Major Investment Plan: ArcelorMittal is investing €1.3 billion in an electric arc furnace in Dunkirk, France, expected to start production by 2029, which will produce steel with three times lower CO2 emissions compared to traditional methods, highlighting the company's commitment to sustainability.
- Electrical Steel Production Expansion: Additionally, the company is investing €500 million in a new electrical steel production unit in Dunkirk, further diversifying its product offerings in Europe and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Positive Market Reaction: The stock is currently trading at $63.08, 15.4% above its 20-day simple moving average and has surged 120.77% over the past 12 months, indicating strong short-term momentum that has attracted investor interest.
- Optimistic Analyst Ratings: ArcelorMittal's stock carries a 'Buy' rating with an average price target of $38.56; despite a current P/E ratio of 15.1x, analysts are optimistic about its growth prospects, suggesting that the current valuation is justified.
See More
ArcelorMittal to Invest €1.3 Billion in Low-Emission Electric Arc Furnace
- Investment in Low-Emission Technology: ArcelorMittal plans to invest €1.3 billion in constructing a low-emission electric arc furnace at its Dunkirk steel plant, with operations expected to commence in 2029, marking a significant advancement in the company's decarbonization efforts.
- Capacity and Environmental Benefits: The new electric arc furnace will have an annual production capacity of 2 million metric tons of steel, with emissions per ton being three times lower than those from Dunkirk's blast furnaces, significantly enhancing the company's environmental profile and market competitiveness.
- Funding Support Mechanism: The project will be supported by Energy Efficiency Certificates, which are expected to cover half of the total investment, alleviating financial pressure on the company while promoting the achievement of sustainability goals.
- Optimized Policy Environment: The CEO of ArcelorMittal stated that the new tariff-rate quota will help curb unfair imports, while the implementation of the CBAM will create a more level playing field for European producers, further solidifying the company's market position.
See More
