Three picks from investor Kevin Simpson to capitalize on this market melt-up
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 13 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MCD?
Source: CNBC
Investment Strategy: Kevin Simpson from Capital Wealth Planning is focusing on value picks and utilizing options strategies to generate income, while also investing in leading stocks like Meta, despite its recent gains.
Market Outlook: Simpson believes the current market is benefiting from a potential rate-cut environment, suggesting that investors should be cautious not to miss out on short-term upside opportunities.
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Analyst Views on MCD
Wall Street analysts forecast MCD stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 284.100
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
Current: 284.100
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
About MCD
McDonald's Corporation is a global foodservice retailer. Its segment includes U.S., International Operated Markets, and International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate. The U.S. segment is its largest market and is 95% franchised. The International Operated Markets segment comprises markets or countries in which it operates and franchises restaurants, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom. This segment is 89% franchised. The International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate segment comprises development licensee and affiliate markets, including equity method investments in China and Japan. This segment is 99% franchised. Its menu features hamburgers and cheeseburgers, the Big Mac, the Quarter Pounder with Cheese, the Filet-O-Fish, and several chicken sandwiches, such as the McChicken and McCrispy as well as Chicken McNuggets, Fries, shakes, sundaes, cookies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
McDonald's Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Significant Revenue Growth: McDonald's reported Q1 revenue of $6.52 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, surpassing the market expectation of $6.47 billion, highlighting strong performance in key markets, particularly the U.K., Germany, and Australia.
- Earnings Per Share Exceeds Expectations: The adjusted earnings per share reached $2.83, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.74, reflecting the company's competitive edge in value and affordability, which further boosts investor confidence.
- Global Sales Growth: Global comparable sales grew by 3.8%, with positive growth in both the U.S. and international markets, indicating McDonald's continued expansion of market share, especially in markets demonstrating strong execution.
- Restructuring Costs Impact: The company incurred a pre-tax restructuring charge of $47 million during the quarter as part of its internal effort to modernize workflows; nevertheless, the overall performance remained robust, demonstrating the company's commitment to operational optimization.
See More
MCDONALD'S CEO REPORTS MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT DID NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT Q1 RESULTS, BUT OPERATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE - CONFERENCE CALL
Impact of Middle East Conflict: McDonald's CEO stated that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East did not materially affect the company's Q1 results.
Operating Environment Concerns: Despite the stable financial results, the CEO noted that the operating environment remains volatile.
See More
US Stocks Pull Back with Jobs Report Ahead
- Jobs Data Forecast: The consensus estimate for April's job report anticipates 55,000 new jobs, with market reactions indicating that 61% predict job creation will exceed 50,000, highlighting potential economic recovery.
- Tech Stocks Surge: The S&P Tech sector has gained over 4% in the past four days, with Alphabet reaching a new high and a 30% increase over the past month, reflecting strong recovery and investor confidence in the tech industry.
- Industrial Stocks Rise: The S&P Industrials sector has increased nearly 6% in the past month, with companies like Howmet, Caterpillar, and Cummins hitting new highs, indicating growth momentum and improved market demand in the industrial sector.
- Toyota's Decline: Toyota's shares have dropped 22.6% over the last three months, down 24% from February's peak, indicating market challenges that may impact its future performance.
See More
McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
McDonald's Expands Presence in China Amid Challenges
- Expansion Plans: McDonald's aims to open 10,000 stores in mainland China by 2028, significantly increasing from over 7,700 at the end of 2025, demonstrating confidence in its growth amid fierce competition.
- Sales Growth Performance: The company reported a 3.4% increase in same-store sales in China during the first quarter, indicating strong performance driven by the Chinese market within its international developmental licensed markets segment.
- Emotional Brand Connection: The reintroduction of McDonald's classic strawberry and vanilla milkshakes has sparked nostalgia among consumers, particularly those who first experienced Western fast food in the 1990s, further solidifying the brand's influence among younger consumers.
- Value Proposition Advantage: The
See More
McDonald's Expansion Plans in China
- Market Growth Potential: McDonald's plans to open 10,000 locations in mainland China by the end of 2028, a significant increase from over 7,700 at the end of 2025, highlighting its strong growth potential in a market where many international brands are shrinking.
- Brand Nostalgia and Consumer Trends: By reintroducing classic strawberry and vanilla milkshakes, McDonald's successfully attracts nostalgic consumers, particularly those born in the 1980s, enhancing its appeal among younger demographics and solidifying its market position.
- Price Competitive Advantage: The introduction of the one-plus-one combo meal priced as low as 14 yuan ($2.06) not only meets consumer demand for affordability but also enhances the brand's image by competing on quality standards against local rivals.
- Localized Menu Innovation: McDonald's menu in China combines classic offerings with local specialties, such as honey barbecue chicken bones and dragon fruit McFlurry, appealing to consumers seeking novelty while reinforcing the brand's competitive edge in the market.
See More
McDonald's Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Significant Revenue Growth: McDonald's reported Q1 revenue of $6.52 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, surpassing the market expectation of $6.47 billion, highlighting strong performance in key markets, particularly the U.K., Germany, and Australia.
- Earnings Per Share Exceeds Expectations: The adjusted earnings per share reached $2.83, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.74, reflecting the company's competitive edge in value and affordability, which further boosts investor confidence.
- Global Sales Growth: Global comparable sales grew by 3.8%, with positive growth in both the U.S. and international markets, indicating McDonald's continued expansion of market share, especially in markets demonstrating strong execution.
- Restructuring Costs Impact: The company incurred a pre-tax restructuring charge of $47 million during the quarter as part of its internal effort to modernize workflows; nevertheless, the overall performance remained robust, demonstrating the company's commitment to operational optimization.
See More
MCDONALD'S CEO REPORTS MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT DID NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT Q1 RESULTS, BUT OPERATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE - CONFERENCE CALL
Impact of Middle East Conflict: McDonald's CEO stated that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East did not materially affect the company's Q1 results.
Operating Environment Concerns: Despite the stable financial results, the CEO noted that the operating environment remains volatile.
See More
US Stocks Pull Back with Jobs Report Ahead
- Jobs Data Forecast: The consensus estimate for April's job report anticipates 55,000 new jobs, with market reactions indicating that 61% predict job creation will exceed 50,000, highlighting potential economic recovery.
- Tech Stocks Surge: The S&P Tech sector has gained over 4% in the past four days, with Alphabet reaching a new high and a 30% increase over the past month, reflecting strong recovery and investor confidence in the tech industry.
- Industrial Stocks Rise: The S&P Industrials sector has increased nearly 6% in the past month, with companies like Howmet, Caterpillar, and Cummins hitting new highs, indicating growth momentum and improved market demand in the industrial sector.
- Toyota's Decline: Toyota's shares have dropped 22.6% over the last three months, down 24% from February's peak, indicating market challenges that may impact its future performance.
See More
McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
McDonald's Expands Presence in China Amid Challenges
- Expansion Plans: McDonald's aims to open 10,000 stores in mainland China by 2028, significantly increasing from over 7,700 at the end of 2025, demonstrating confidence in its growth amid fierce competition.
- Sales Growth Performance: The company reported a 3.4% increase in same-store sales in China during the first quarter, indicating strong performance driven by the Chinese market within its international developmental licensed markets segment.
- Emotional Brand Connection: The reintroduction of McDonald's classic strawberry and vanilla milkshakes has sparked nostalgia among consumers, particularly those who first experienced Western fast food in the 1990s, further solidifying the brand's influence among younger consumers.
- Value Proposition Advantage: The
See More
McDonald's Expansion Plans in China
- Market Growth Potential: McDonald's plans to open 10,000 locations in mainland China by the end of 2028, a significant increase from over 7,700 at the end of 2025, highlighting its strong growth potential in a market where many international brands are shrinking.
- Brand Nostalgia and Consumer Trends: By reintroducing classic strawberry and vanilla milkshakes, McDonald's successfully attracts nostalgic consumers, particularly those born in the 1980s, enhancing its appeal among younger demographics and solidifying its market position.
- Price Competitive Advantage: The introduction of the one-plus-one combo meal priced as low as 14 yuan ($2.06) not only meets consumer demand for affordability but also enhances the brand's image by competing on quality standards against local rivals.
- Localized Menu Innovation: McDonald's menu in China combines classic offerings with local specialties, such as honey barbecue chicken bones and dragon fruit McFlurry, appealing to consumers seeking novelty while reinforcing the brand's competitive edge in the market.
See More
