Axon increases FY25 revenue forecast to $2.74B, up from $2.65B-$2.73B
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 04 2025
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FY25 Revenue and EBITDA Margin: The consensus for FY25 revenue is projected at $2.72 billion, with an expected Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25%, consistent with previous guidance.
Stock-Based Compensation Expenses: The company anticipates stock-based compensation expenses to be between $580 million and $630 million, which includes approximately $330 million related to the 2024 eXponential Stock Plan and CEO Performance Award.
CapEx Plans for 2025: Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are estimated to be between $170 million and $180 million, focusing on long-term R&D investments, capacity expansion, and new product development.
Headquarters Investment: The anticipated capital expenditures do not cover costs for a new headquarters, as the company is currently awaiting local zoning and planning decisions.
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Analyst Views on AXON
Wall Street analysts forecast AXON stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AXON is 800.38 USD with a low forecast of 610.00 USD and a high forecast of 925.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 549.860
Low
610.00
Averages
800.38
High
925.00
Current: 549.860
Low
610.00
Averages
800.38
High
925.00
About AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc. is a technology company in global public safety. It is building the public safety operating system by integrating a suite of hardware devices and cloud software solutions that lead modern policing. Its segments include Connected Devices and Software & Services. Connected Devices segment includes the development, manufacture and sale of fully integrated hardware solutions such as conducted energy devices (CEDs), body cameras, drones, accessories, extended warranties and other hardware products. Software & Services segment includes the development and sale of fully integrated cloud-based software solutions such as Axon Evidence, Records Management System, Draft One and other software and services that enable law enforcement to securely store, manage, share and analyze video and manage operations. Its global customer base includes first responders across international, federal, state and local law enforcement, fire, corrections and emergency medical services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Axon Enterprise's Sustained Growth Amid Market Challenges
- Stock Performance: Axon Enterprise achieved positive returns every year from 2016 to 2024, with its stock skyrocketing 3,340% since the end of 2015, demonstrating resilience in a volatile market.
- Revenue Growth: The company has recorded revenue growth above 30% in 14 of the last 15 quarters, raising its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to $2.74 billion, reflecting strong market demand and business expansion capabilities.
- Market Expansion: By acquiring Prepared and Carbyne, Axon expanded its total addressable market by $5 billion to $159 billion, enhancing its competitive edge in law enforcement technology.
- Technological Innovation: Axon's introduction of the generative AI product Draft One, which automates police report writing, improves efficiency and allows officers to focus on higher-value tasks, further solidifying its market leadership.
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AppLovin Transforms into Ad Giant, Challenging Amazon
- Competitive Market Positioning: AppLovin's AXON 2.0 machine learning advertising engine successfully attracts non-gaming advertisers, with total revenue projected to reach $9.3 billion in 2026, indicating a nearly 70% growth compared to 2025 and showcasing its strong competitive edge in the ad tech space.
- Advertising Spend Surge: BofA forecasts that AppLovin's ad spend will hit $6.7 billion, with quarterly advertising revenue surpassing $1 billion, reflecting the company's rapid expansion and enhanced profitability in the advertising market.
- Innovation-Driven Growth: The installation of the Axon pixel nearly quadrupled by late 2025, enabling e-commerce merchants to optimize ad targeting and lowering barriers for direct-to-consumer engagement, further solidifying AppLovin's leadership in mobile advertising.
- Regulatory Risk Challenges: Despite AppLovin's strong growth momentum, it faces regulatory scrutiny from the SEC and allegations of market manipulation, which could impact its valuation and investor confidence, necessitating careful navigation of potential legal challenges.
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