Analysts Raise Intel Forecasts After Stronger-Than-Expected Performance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 24 2025
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Strong Financial Performance: Intel Corp. reported third-quarter revenue of $13.65 billion and adjusted earnings of 23 cents per share, both exceeding analyst expectations.
AI Demand and Future Outlook: CEO Lip-Bu Tan highlighted that AI is driving demand for computing, positioning Intel well for future opportunities in various sectors, including ASICs and foundry services.
Fourth-Quarter Projections: Intel anticipates fourth-quarter revenue between $12.8 billion and $13.8 billion, with adjusted earnings expected to be eight cents per share, aligning with analyst estimates.
Analyst Price Target Adjustments: Following the earnings announcement, several analysts adjusted their price targets for Intel, with most maintaining their ratings while increasing targets significantly.
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Analyst Views on INTC
Wall Street analysts forecast INTC stock price to fall
29 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
19 Hold
5 Sell
Hold
Current: 127.020
Low
20.00
Averages
39.30
High
52.00
Current: 127.020
Low
20.00
Averages
39.30
High
52.00
About INTC
Intel Corporation is a global designer and manufacturer of semiconductor products. The Company's segments include Intel Products, Intel Foundry, and All Other. Its Intel Products comprise Client Computing Group (CCG) and Data Center and AI (DCAI). CCG delivers platforms and processors that power PCs and edge devices, enabling enhanced performance, connectivity and user experience for consumer and commercial markets with capabilities that also support retail, industrial robotics and AI ecosystems at the edge. DCAI delivers workload-optimized solutions based upon its x86 architecture for data centers, including CPUs, AI accelerators, NICs, IPUs and custom ASICs, enabling performance and scalability for cloud, enterprise, telecommunication and HPC environments. The Intel Foundry segment comprises technology development, manufacturing and foundry services, developing new semiconductor process technologies and advanced packaging technologies. All Other segments include Mobileye and Other.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Earnings Growth Driver: HSBC expects Intel's server CPU business to remain the primary driver of earnings growth in 2026 and 2027, indicating a recovery in market demand that could significantly enhance the company's overall financial performance.
- Foundry Business Outlook: HSBC believes the narrative around Intel's foundry business has improved significantly, becoming a meaningful part of the company's valuation, with expectations for greater visibility into this business starting in the second half of 2026, thus presenting new growth opportunities for the company.
- Price Target Increase: HSBC raised Intel's price target from $100 to $200 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, implying about 60% upside potential from current levels, reflecting market optimism regarding Intel's future performance.
- Retail Sentiment Bullish: According to Stocktwits data, retail sentiment around Intel stock is trending bullish, with a year-to-date increase of 233%, showcasing investor confidence in its long-term growth potential, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 20% growth during the same period.
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- CEO Advocacy: CEO Sam Altman argued that sharing the financial upside of AI with the public is the best approach, a notion he initially suggested during early discussions with the Trump administration, highlighting the company's commitment to public interest.
- Industry Implications: This proposal could encourage other U.S. AI companies to cede similar stakes to the government, although it remains unclear whether rival labs would participate, potentially reshaping the capital structure of the industry and the relationship between government and tech firms.
- Historical Context: The U.S. government holds a 10% stake in Intel Corp after an $8.9 billion investment, with Trump previously expressing a desire for a larger stake in AI giants, providing a precedent that supports OpenAI's proposal within the policy framework.
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- Bond Market Response: Despite increasing geopolitical uncertainty, the bond market has not seen a flight to safety, primarily due to rising inflation expectations and concerns over debt sustainability, which have undermined investor confidence in Treasuries.
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- Strategic Tech Investment: Trump emphasized the administration's strategy in domestic semiconductor production, mentioning an $8.9 billion investment in Intel last August, which secured a 10% stake in the company, aimed at enhancing U.S. competitiveness in global manufacturing and ensuring technological autonomy.
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- Investor Confidence Shaken: Despite reporting $13.6 billion in first-quarter revenue, a 7% year-over-year increase, Intel's market valuation has soared to about $638 billion, roughly 12 times its revenue, and the company remains unprofitable, leading to diminished investor confidence in its future profitability.
- Weak External Revenue Growth: Intel's external foundry revenue was only $174 million in the first quarter, highlighting a lack of demand for its manufacturing services, which poses challenges to investor expectations for future growth.
- Upcoming Key Earnings Report: Intel is set to release its second-quarter earnings on July 23, with the market closely watching its revenue guidance and the narrowing of foundry losses to assess future growth potential and the restoration of market confidence.
See More
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- Earnings Growth Driver: HSBC expects Intel's server CPU business to remain the primary driver of earnings growth in 2026 and 2027, indicating a recovery in market demand that could significantly enhance the company's overall financial performance.
- Foundry Business Outlook: HSBC believes the narrative around Intel's foundry business has improved significantly, becoming a meaningful part of the company's valuation, with expectations for greater visibility into this business starting in the second half of 2026, thus presenting new growth opportunities for the company.
- Price Target Increase: HSBC raised Intel's price target from $100 to $200 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, implying about 60% upside potential from current levels, reflecting market optimism regarding Intel's future performance.
- Retail Sentiment Bullish: According to Stocktwits data, retail sentiment around Intel stock is trending bullish, with a year-to-date increase of 233%, showcasing investor confidence in its long-term growth potential, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 20% growth during the same period.
See More
OpenAI Proposes 5% Stake for U.S. Government Amid Political Pressure
- Stake Proposal: OpenAI has proposed handing a 5% stake to the U.S. government, which would be valued at approximately $42.6 billion based on its recent $852 billion valuation, aiming to alleviate mounting political pressure in Washington.
- CEO Advocacy: CEO Sam Altman argued that sharing the financial upside of AI with the public is the best approach, a notion he initially suggested during early discussions with the Trump administration, highlighting the company's commitment to public interest.
- Industry Implications: This proposal could encourage other U.S. AI companies to cede similar stakes to the government, although it remains unclear whether rival labs would participate, potentially reshaping the capital structure of the industry and the relationship between government and tech firms.
- Historical Context: The U.S. government holds a 10% stake in Intel Corp after an $8.9 billion investment, with Trump previously expressing a desire for a larger stake in AI giants, providing a precedent that supports OpenAI's proposal within the policy framework.
See More
Middle East Conflict Drives Gold Prices Up
- Gold Price Fluctuations: Gold prices have risen due to escalating Middle East conflicts, supported by a softer dollar; however, the metal has not returned to its January peak, indicating that demand for safe assets is not as strong as expected.
- Bond Market Response: Despite increasing geopolitical uncertainty, the bond market has not seen a flight to safety, primarily due to rising inflation expectations and concerns over debt sustainability, which have undermined investor confidence in Treasuries.
- Yen Depreciation Trend: The divergence in the Bank of Japan's policy path and issues surrounding debt sustainability have led to the yen depreciating to multi-decade lows, despite Japanese government bond yields hitting 30-year highs, making the yen less reliable as a safe haven.
- Investor Strategy Adjustment: As traditional safe-haven assets underperform, investors may need to reassess their asset allocation strategies, considering a broader mix of assets to navigate market volatility effectively.
See More
Trump Expresses Concerns Over Federal Reserve Board's Hostility
- Internal Resistance at Fed: Trump highlighted that newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is facing significant internal resistance from the board, which he described as 'a little bit hostile,' potentially hindering Warsh's ability to implement the administration's desired monetary policies, thereby impacting economic stability.
- Strategic Tech Investment: Trump emphasized the administration's strategy in domestic semiconductor production, mentioning an $8.9 billion investment in Intel last August, which secured a 10% stake in the company, aimed at enhancing U.S. competitiveness in global manufacturing and ensuring technological autonomy.
- Relationship with Elon Musk: Trump stated that he maintains a good relationship with Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and expects Musk to donate SpaceX stock to Trump Accounts, which could provide financial support for his investment platform tailored for American minors.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Retail sentiment on Stocktwits for SPY, QQQ, and DIA was 'bullish' with normal to high message volumes, reflecting investor confidence in the market despite uncertainties surrounding economic data.
See More
Mixed Close for US Stocks as Chipmakers Continue to Decline
- Market Divergence: On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed unchanged, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.14% to a new all-time high, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.61%, indicating a split in market sentiment, particularly due to the ongoing weakness in chip stocks impacting the broader market.
- Employment Data Impact: US nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, significantly below the expected 113,000, although the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a one-year low of 4.2%, suggesting a stronger labor market than anticipated, which may influence the Fed's interest rate decisions.
- Chipmaker Declines: Chipmakers faced another sell-off on Thursday, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF dropping over 5%, and SanDisk and KLA Corp falling more than 14% and 12%, respectively, reflecting growing market concerns over the sustainability of the AI buildout boom.
- Oil Price Decline Impact: WTI crude oil prices fell to a fresh 4.25-month low as UAE ramped up shipments by 30% in June, restoring exports to pre-war levels, a trend that may further lower inflation expectations and affect market sentiment.
See More
Intel's Stock Pullback Raises Market Concerns
- Stock Volatility: Intel's stock surged approximately 270% in the first half of 2026, reaching $139.63, but fell 9% to $127.02 on Wednesday and another 5% to $120.35 on Thursday, indicating widespread selling pressure on chip stocks.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Despite reporting $13.6 billion in first-quarter revenue, a 7% year-over-year increase, Intel's market valuation has soared to about $638 billion, roughly 12 times its revenue, and the company remains unprofitable, leading to diminished investor confidence in its future profitability.
- Weak External Revenue Growth: Intel's external foundry revenue was only $174 million in the first quarter, highlighting a lack of demand for its manufacturing services, which poses challenges to investor expectations for future growth.
- Upcoming Key Earnings Report: Intel is set to release its second-quarter earnings on July 23, with the market closely watching its revenue guidance and the narrowing of foundry losses to assess future growth potential and the restoration of market confidence.
See More
