Super Micro Is Hindenburg's Latest Target. What History Says the Stock's Next Six Months Could Look Like.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 29 2024
0mins
Source: Barron's
Impact of Hindenburg Research Report: Super Micro Computer's stock has been negatively affected by a report from Hindenburg Research, which raised concerns about accounting practices and related party transactions. The stock dropped significantly after the report and further declined when the company announced a delay in filing its annual report.
Historical Stock Performance Analysis: An analysis of ten companies previously targeted by Hindenburg shows mixed results; only six experienced losses in the following six months, while others, like Welltower and Natera, recovered to pre-report levels, suggesting that the long-term impact on Super Micro's stock remains uncertain.
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Analyst Views on SMCI
Wall Street analysts forecast SMCI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SMCI is 46.82 USD with a low forecast of 34.00 USD and a high forecast of 63.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
5 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 31.210
Low
34.00
Averages
46.82
High
63.00
Current: 31.210
Low
34.00
Averages
46.82
High
63.00
About SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc. provides application-optimized Total IT solutions. It delivers rack-scale solutions optimized for various workloads, including artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, where acceleration is critical. It produces a portfolio of server and storage solutions for enterprise data centers, cloud service providers and edge computing (5G Telco, Retail and embedded). Total IT Solutions include complete servers, storage systems, modular blade servers, workstations, full-rack scale solutions, networking devices, server sub-systems, server management and security software. It provides global support and services to help its customers install, upgrade and maintain their computing infrastructure, including liquid-cooling operations. It offers platforms in rackmount, blade, multi-node and embedded form factors, which support single, dual and multiprocessor architectures. Its key product lines include SuperBlade and MicroBlade, SuperStorage, Twin and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Supermicro Faces Profit Margin Pressure Amid AI Demand
- Significant Sales Growth: Supermicro has generated over $21 billion in sales over the past four quarters, a substantial increase from less than $6 billion a few years ago, reflecting strong demand for data center servers amid rising AI trends.
- Margin Challenges: The company's gross profit margin is projected to be just 7.5% in 2023, down from over 15% in 2022, with nearly 93% of revenues allocated to cover the cost of goods sold, posing serious profitability challenges.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: While Supermicro's market cap is below $20 billion and it trades at a forward P/E ratio of less than 17, any slowdown in AI server spending could lead to downward adjustments in profit expectations, necessitating caution from investors.
- Cost Management Imperative: With shrinking margins, Supermicro must focus on stringent cost control to prevent earnings deterioration; although high demand for AI servers presents growth opportunities, it may not translate into significant profit increases.
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Super Micro Computer Shares Rise Amid Semiconductor Sector Strength
- Sector-Wide Strength: On Wednesday, the Nasdaq rose by 0.80% and the S&P 500 by 0.29%, creating a favorable backdrop for semiconductor stocks, leading to Super Micro Computer's share price increase, reflecting broader market trends rather than company-specific news.
- Positive Earnings Outlook: Texas Instruments reported fourth-quarter revenue of $4.42 billion, slightly below estimates but provided guidance indicating stabilizing demand, while ASML exceeded revenue expectations with $11.40 billion in quarterly sales and announced a €12 billion share buyback program through 2028.
- Technical Analysis Indicates Short-Term Strength: Super Micro Computer's stock is currently trading 4.5% above its 20-day simple moving average but 0.3% below its 50-day moving average, indicating short-term strength while facing mid-term resistance, with a key resistance level at $32.00.
- Investor Focus on Upcoming Earnings: Super Micro Computer is set to report earnings on February 3, with an estimated EPS of $0.45 and revenue of $10.38 billion, showing growth potential compared to last year, and a P/E ratio of 24.6x indicating fair valuation.
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