Chipotle Mexican Grill Becomes Oversold (CMG)
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 18 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CMG?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Chipotle's Stock Performance: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) shares have reached an oversold level with an RSI of 28.8, indicating potential exhaustion of recent selling pressure as the stock trades around $47.84, close to its 52-week low of $47.55.
Market Comparison: The current RSI for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is at 36.9, suggesting that CMG's lower RSI could present a buying opportunity for bullish investors looking for entry points.
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Analyst Views on CMG
Wall Street analysts forecast CMG stock price to rise
25 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 37.970
Low
35.00
Averages
45.95
High
56.00
Current: 37.970
Low
35.00
Averages
45.95
High
56.00
About CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a restaurant company. The Company develops and operates restaurants that serve a menu of burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, made using fresh ingredients. The Company operates approximately 3839 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates. It owns and operates all its restaurants in North America and Europe. The Company is focused in serving sourced, classically cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. Its menu includes Burrito, Burrito Bowl, Lifestyle Bowl, Quesadilla, Salad, Tacos, Kid’s Meal, Chips and Sides, and Build your Own (digital only). It also includes Raymonte’s Chicken Bowl, The Mr. Fantasy Burrito, Carne Asada, Build-Your-Own Chipotle, catering and group order. Its subsidiaries include Chipotle Mexican Grill Canada Corp., Chipotle Mexican Grill France SAS, among others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Chipotle Stock Falls 36% Amid Traffic Challenges
- Stock Decline: Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock has fallen 36% over the past 12 months, reflecting pressure from reduced consumer foot traffic, which has diminished investor confidence in future growth prospects.
- Expansion Plans: The company aims to open 350 to 370 new locations in 2023, with a long-term goal of establishing 7,000 restaurants in North America, demonstrating its ambition for market expansion despite current challenges.
- New Product Launches: Chipotle introduced a high-protein menu last December and plans to roll out more limited-time offerings in 2026, indicating the company's efforts to innovate and attract customers to boost sales.
- Equipment Upgrade Investment: Chipotle is investing in upgraded kitchen equipment, with 350 restaurants currently equipped and an expectation to reach 2,000 by year-end, which will significantly enhance operational efficiency and save prep time.
See More
Investment Comparison: Chipotle vs Dutch Bros
- Chipotle Sales Decline: Chipotle experienced a 1.7% drop in same-store sales, with traffic contributing to a 2.9 percentage point decline, although higher spending added 1.2 percentage points, indicating that macroeconomic pressures have reduced consumer dining out willingness, negatively impacting performance.
- Expansion Potential: Chipotle added 321 locations last year, bringing its total to over 4,000, and despite a 36.4% drop in stock price over the past year, its P/E ratio has decreased from 50 to 32, still above the S&P 500's 29 multiple, reflecting its relative overvaluation in the market.
- Dutch Bros Strong Growth: Dutch Bros achieved a 5.6% increase in same-store sales last year, with 3.2 percentage points coming from increased traffic, showcasing its strong execution and customer appeal in the fast beverage market, further solidifying its market position.
- Market Expansion Opportunities: Dutch Bros opened about 150 new locations last year, totaling over 1,100 across 25 states, particularly lacking presence in the Northeast and certain Midwest states, indicating significant market expansion potential, even as its stock price fell 35.1% over the past year.
See More
Investment Outlook for Chipotle and Dutch Bros
- Chipotle Sales Decline: Chipotle's same-store sales fell by 1.7%, with traffic contributing a 2.9 percentage point drop, although higher spending added 1.2 percentage points, indicating that macroeconomic pressures have reduced consumer willingness to dine out, negatively impacting performance.
- Expansion Potential: Despite challenges, Chipotle added 321 locations last year, finishing with over 4,000, demonstrating its expansion potential in the fast-casual dining market; however, its P/E ratio remains high at 32 compared to the S&P 500's 29, indicating it is still overvalued.
- Dutch Bros Growth Opportunity: Dutch Bros achieved a 5.6% increase in same-store sales last year, with traffic contributing 3.2 percentage points, showcasing strong performance in the beverage market, and with over 1,100 locations across 25 states, it has significant expansion opportunities in the Northeast and Midwest.
- Valuation Adjustment: Although Dutch Bros shares have dropped 35.1% over the past year, its P/E ratio has decreased from 240 to 84, which, while still high, is more reasonable, providing investors with a better entry point, especially considering its ongoing sales growth and market expansion potential.
See More
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- New Buy Highlights: Among the new acquisitions, Loeb focused on consumer goods and international markets, likely aiming to capture opportunities arising from global economic recovery and enhance the growth potential of his portfolio.
- Regulatory Transparency: Loeb's portfolio changes are disclosed through the 13F filing as required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, increasing transparency for the hedge fund and helping investors better understand its investment strategies and market outlook.
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Daniel Loeb's Third Point Invests in Chipotle and Spotify Amid Market Struggles
- Chipotle Investment: Daniel Loeb's Third Point acquired a position worth over $174 million in Chipotle during Q4 2025, despite the stock's decline of over 5% in the last quarter, with analysts maintaining buy ratings and an estimated 18% upside potential.
- Spotify Position: Loeb invested $58 million in Spotify in the same quarter, which saw a drop of more than 16%, yet finished the year nearly 30% higher, indicating market confidence in its growth, with analysts suggesting a potential increase of over 42%.
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See More
Chipotle Stock Falls 36% Amid Traffic Challenges
- Stock Decline: Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock has fallen 36% over the past 12 months, reflecting pressure from reduced consumer foot traffic, which has diminished investor confidence in future growth prospects.
- Expansion Plans: The company aims to open 350 to 370 new locations in 2023, with a long-term goal of establishing 7,000 restaurants in North America, demonstrating its ambition for market expansion despite current challenges.
- New Product Launches: Chipotle introduced a high-protein menu last December and plans to roll out more limited-time offerings in 2026, indicating the company's efforts to innovate and attract customers to boost sales.
- Equipment Upgrade Investment: Chipotle is investing in upgraded kitchen equipment, with 350 restaurants currently equipped and an expectation to reach 2,000 by year-end, which will significantly enhance operational efficiency and save prep time.
See More
Investment Comparison: Chipotle vs Dutch Bros
- Chipotle Sales Decline: Chipotle experienced a 1.7% drop in same-store sales, with traffic contributing to a 2.9 percentage point decline, although higher spending added 1.2 percentage points, indicating that macroeconomic pressures have reduced consumer dining out willingness, negatively impacting performance.
- Expansion Potential: Chipotle added 321 locations last year, bringing its total to over 4,000, and despite a 36.4% drop in stock price over the past year, its P/E ratio has decreased from 50 to 32, still above the S&P 500's 29 multiple, reflecting its relative overvaluation in the market.
- Dutch Bros Strong Growth: Dutch Bros achieved a 5.6% increase in same-store sales last year, with 3.2 percentage points coming from increased traffic, showcasing its strong execution and customer appeal in the fast beverage market, further solidifying its market position.
- Market Expansion Opportunities: Dutch Bros opened about 150 new locations last year, totaling over 1,100 across 25 states, particularly lacking presence in the Northeast and certain Midwest states, indicating significant market expansion potential, even as its stock price fell 35.1% over the past year.
See More
Investment Outlook for Chipotle and Dutch Bros
- Chipotle Sales Decline: Chipotle's same-store sales fell by 1.7%, with traffic contributing a 2.9 percentage point drop, although higher spending added 1.2 percentage points, indicating that macroeconomic pressures have reduced consumer willingness to dine out, negatively impacting performance.
- Expansion Potential: Despite challenges, Chipotle added 321 locations last year, finishing with over 4,000, demonstrating its expansion potential in the fast-casual dining market; however, its P/E ratio remains high at 32 compared to the S&P 500's 29, indicating it is still overvalued.
- Dutch Bros Growth Opportunity: Dutch Bros achieved a 5.6% increase in same-store sales last year, with traffic contributing 3.2 percentage points, showcasing strong performance in the beverage market, and with over 1,100 locations across 25 states, it has significant expansion opportunities in the Northeast and Midwest.
- Valuation Adjustment: Although Dutch Bros shares have dropped 35.1% over the past year, its P/E ratio has decreased from 240 to 84, which, while still high, is more reasonable, providing investors with a better entry point, especially considering its ongoing sales growth and market expansion potential.
See More
Daniel Loeb Reshuffles Third Point Portfolio
- Portfolio Restructuring: Billionaire hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb reshuffled his Third Point LLC portfolio in Q4 2025, adding several new consumer and international investments, indicating a pursuit of market diversification.
- Reduced Mega-Cap Exposure: In the latest Form 13F filing, Loeb trimmed stakes in select mega-cap and semiconductor names, reflecting a cautious stance towards these sectors, possibly due to concerns over market volatility.
- New Buy Highlights: Among the new acquisitions, Loeb focused on consumer goods and international markets, likely aiming to capture opportunities arising from global economic recovery and enhance the growth potential of his portfolio.
- Regulatory Transparency: Loeb's portfolio changes are disclosed through the 13F filing as required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, increasing transparency for the hedge fund and helping investors better understand its investment strategies and market outlook.
See More
Ackman's Major Investment in Meta Platforms
- Significant Investment: Ackman's Pershing Square has invested 10% of its capital in Meta Platforms, reflecting his strong confidence in Meta's growth potential in artificial intelligence, despite the stock trading at over 21 times forward earnings, which he believes undervalues its long-term prospects.
- Capital Expenditure Strategy: Meta is projected to increase its capital expenditures to $135 billion by 2026, primarily for superintelligence development, and Ackman is unconcerned, asserting that Meta's financial health can support these investments while its core advertising business remains a cash cow.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following Ackman's investment announcement, Meta's stock jumped 11% in 2025, and despite volatility in 2026, the company still expects solid year-over-year operating income growth, indicating increasing market confidence in its AI investments.
- Analyst Support: A survey by S&P Global found that 62 out of 67 Wall Street analysts rated Meta as a
See More
Daniel Loeb's Third Point Invests in Chipotle and Spotify Amid Market Struggles
- Chipotle Investment: Daniel Loeb's Third Point acquired a position worth over $174 million in Chipotle during Q4 2025, despite the stock's decline of over 5% in the last quarter, with analysts maintaining buy ratings and an estimated 18% upside potential.
- Spotify Position: Loeb invested $58 million in Spotify in the same quarter, which saw a drop of more than 16%, yet finished the year nearly 30% higher, indicating market confidence in its growth, with analysts suggesting a potential increase of over 42%.
- Union Pacific Stake Increase: Loeb also more than doubled his position in Union Pacific, raising its value to over $418 million, making it the fund's fifth-largest holding, reflecting a positive outlook on the railroad sector despite challenging market conditions.
- New and Reduced Positions: In addition to increasing stakes, Loeb established new positions in Constellation Energy and Alibaba while selling off shares in Flutter, Meta, and Talen Energy, demonstrating a strategic adjustment of his portfolio amid market volatility.
See More
