Chipotle Mexican Grill Becomes Oversold (CMG)
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 18 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Chipotle's Stock Performance: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) shares have reached an oversold level with an RSI of 28.8, indicating potential exhaustion of recent selling pressure as the stock trades around $47.84, close to its 52-week low of $47.55.
Market Comparison: The current RSI for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is at 36.9, suggesting that CMG's lower RSI could present a buying opportunity for bullish investors looking for entry points.
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Analyst Views on CMG
Wall Street analysts forecast CMG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMG is 45.95 USD with a low forecast of 35.00 USD and a high forecast of 56.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
25 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 39.160
Low
35.00
Averages
45.95
High
56.00
Current: 39.160
Low
35.00
Averages
45.95
High
56.00
About CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a restaurant company. The Company develops and operates restaurants that serve a menu of burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, made using fresh ingredients. The Company operates approximately 3839 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates. It owns and operates all its restaurants in North America and Europe. The Company is focused in serving sourced, classically cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. Its menu includes Burrito, Burrito Bowl, Lifestyle Bowl, Quesadilla, Salad, Tacos, Kid’s Meal, Chips and Sides, and Build your Own (digital only). It also includes Raymonte’s Chicken Bowl, The Mr. Fantasy Burrito, Carne Asada, Build-Your-Own Chipotle, catering and group order. Its subsidiaries include Chipotle Mexican Grill Canada Corp., Chipotle Mexican Grill France SAS, among others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Analysis of the Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks
- Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks: In 2025, fast-casual stocks like Wingstop, Chipotle, Cava, and Sweetgreen suffered losses ranging from 15% to 78%, but have shown double-digit rebounds in early 2026, indicating a restoration of market confidence in the sector.
- Shifts in Consumer Preferences: Data shows that the share of consumers opting for deli-prepared foods over restaurant meals has more than doubled since 2017, rising from 12% to 28%, highlighting increased competition for fast-casual dining amid economic pressures.
- Pricing Strategy Missteps: Analysts note that fast-casual companies have aggressively raised menu prices over the past year, leading to heightened consumer sensitivity, particularly as prices exceed $16, prompting consumers to reassess their value.
- Market Expectation Reset: As market expectations for fast-casual stocks adjust, investors are beginning to refocus on the fundamentals of these businesses, particularly the strong long-term performance of companies like Chipotle and Wingstop, which may attract renewed capital inflows.
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Analysis of the Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks
- Rebound in Fast-Casual Stocks: Fast-casual stocks like Wingstop, Chipotle, Cava, and Sweetgreen suffered value losses ranging from 15% to 78% in 2025, yet have rebounded by double digits in early 2026, indicating a market optimism about their future performance.
- Changing Consumer Behavior: Data shows that the share of consumers opting for convenience store prepared foods has risen from 12% to 28% since 2017, while 23% of shoppers are visiting fast food or fast-casual restaurants less frequently, reflecting a shift in consumer choices under economic pressure.
- Impact of Pricing Strategies: The aggressive pricing strategies in the fast-casual sector have heightened consumer sensitivity to prices, particularly as menu items at Cava and Sweetgreen exceed $16, prompting consumers to reassess their value.
- Market Expectation Adjustment: As market expectations for fast-casual stocks reset, investors are beginning to refocus on these historically strong performers, especially with the upcoming earnings season, where positive results could further drive stock prices upward.
Continue Reading