SpaceX Stock Soars Nearly 40% Post-IPO Amid Valuation Debate
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- IPO Fundraising Scale: SpaceX raised approximately $85 billion in its June 12 IPO, achieving a valuation close to $1.8 trillion, marking the largest IPO in U.S. history and demonstrating strong market confidence in its growth potential.
- First Day Trading Performance: The stock opened at $150 on IPO day and closed at $161, representing a 19% gain, with a peak of $229.40 shortly thereafter, surpassing Microsoft's market cap, reflecting investor optimism about its future prospects.
- Revenue Growth Potential: SpaceX's revenue is expected to more than double due to recent compute deals with Anthropic and Alphabet, while Starlink achieved a 50% year-over-year growth in 2025 with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin, indicating significant untapped market opportunities.
- Valuation Controversy: Despite substantial stock gains, SpaceX trades at over 100 times its trailing revenue, with Morningstar estimating its fair value at only $780 billion, highlighting a significant divergence in market expectations and the need for investors to carefully assess risks.
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Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 379.400
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 379.400
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company. The Company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The Company’s segments include Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services. This segment primarily comprises: Office Commercial, Office Consumer, LinkedIn, and Dynamics business solutions. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of server products and cloud services, including Azure and other cloud services, SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related Client Access Licenses (CALs), and Nuance and GitHub; and Enterprise Services, including enterprise support services, industry solutions and Nuance professional services. The More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows, Devices, Gaming, and search and news advertising.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Mixed Market Close: Tech Stocks Decline Amid Leadership Changes
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- Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices initially surged over 2% after Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, but later retreated due to reported progress in peace talks with the US, highlighting the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on market dynamics and prompting investors to reassess energy sector risks.
- Market Expectation Shift: The market is currently pricing in a 39% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment towards future monetary policy, which could influence market liquidity and investment strategies.
- Overseas Market Performance: European and Asian stock markets closed higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 and Japan's Nikkei 225 rising by 0.29% and 1.55% respectively, indicating a divergence in global market trends that may provide some support for the US market.
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- Market Fear: The market's persistent fear that AI agents could erode traditional enterprise software subscription models has intensified, as evidenced by Salesforce and Adobe's stock prices declining by about 43% and 49%, respectively, reflecting a pessimistic outlook for the software industry.
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- Growth Expectations Missed: The complaint claims that during the class period, Microsoft touted strong adoption and enterprise acceptance of Copilot, yet failed to convert a significant percentage of Microsoft 365 users into paid subscribers, resulting in lost market share to competitors.
- Significant Financial Impact: On January 28, 2026, Microsoft reported fiscal Q2 results revealing slower-than-expected Azure growth and only 15 million Copilot seats, far below analyst estimates, causing the stock price to plummet from $481.63 to $433.50, a drop of over 10%.
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- Rising Power Demand: According to BloombergNEF, U.S. data center power demand is projected to double to 77 gigawatts by 2030, while the Kilby project will deliver approximately 2.67 gigawatts upon completion, enough to power around 2 million homes, addressing the increasing energy needs of AI computing.
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- Strong Revenue Growth: In the most recent quarter ending in April, Microsoft achieved an 18% revenue growth, indicating that its AI business is now at an annual run rate of $37 billion, up 123% from last year, showcasing AI as a significant growth opportunity.
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- Project Overview: Chevron's 20-year power agreement with Microsoft will support the construction of an AI data center in Texas, with Project Kilby expected to deliver approximately 2.67 GW of power, enough to supply around 2 million homes, marking a strategic expansion into emerging markets for Chevron.
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- Tech Stock Decline: Alphabet's stock fell over 5% following the announcement of Google DeepMind VP Jumper's departure, leading to a broader decline in major tech stocks, which may heighten investor uncertainty regarding the tech sector's future performance.
- Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices initially surged over 2% after Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, but later retreated due to reported progress in peace talks with the US, highlighting the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on market dynamics and prompting investors to reassess energy sector risks.
- Market Expectation Shift: The market is currently pricing in a 39% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment towards future monetary policy, which could influence market liquidity and investment strategies.
- Overseas Market Performance: European and Asian stock markets closed higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 and Japan's Nikkei 225 rising by 0.29% and 1.55% respectively, indicating a divergence in global market trends that may provide some support for the US market.
See More
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- Stock Price Decline: Palantir Technologies' shares fell 7% in the afternoon session, primarily driven by high-profile executive departures from Alphabet and regulatory pressures, which pulled down the entire communication services and software sector, with Alphabet dropping approximately 6%.
- Market Fear: The market's persistent fear that AI agents could erode traditional enterprise software subscription models has intensified, as evidenced by Salesforce and Adobe's stock prices declining by about 43% and 49%, respectively, reflecting a pessimistic outlook for the software industry.
- Investor Reaction: Despite Salesforce's $25 billion stock buyback and an upgrade to Buy rating, the market remains cautious about software companies' futures, believing that AI revenue growth has yet to offset the decline in traditional subscription businesses.
- Long-Term Investment Opportunity: Palantir Technologies has dropped 28.9% year-to-date, currently trading at $119.42, which is 42.4% below its 52-week high of $207.18; however, investors who bought $1,000 worth of shares five years ago would now see their investment worth $4,701, indicating potential long-term value in holding.
See More
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- Lawsuit Background: Robbins LLP has filed a class action on behalf of investors who purchased Microsoft securities between May 1, 2025, and January 28, 2026, alleging that Microsoft misled investors regarding AI user adoption and growth prospects.
- Growth Expectations Missed: The complaint claims that during the class period, Microsoft touted strong adoption and enterprise acceptance of Copilot, yet failed to convert a significant percentage of Microsoft 365 users into paid subscribers, resulting in lost market share to competitors.
- Significant Financial Impact: On January 28, 2026, Microsoft reported fiscal Q2 results revealing slower-than-expected Azure growth and only 15 million Copilot seats, far below analyst estimates, causing the stock price to plummet from $481.63 to $433.50, a drop of over 10%.
- Resource Allocation Issues: The lawsuit also highlights that Microsoft redirected substantial Azure computing resources to Copilot applications and AI R&D, leading to capacity constraints that further hampered Azure's growth, indicating a lack of competitiveness in the AI sector.
See More
Chevron Signs 20-Year Power Agreement with Microsoft for AI Data Center
- Project Overview: Chevron's 20-year power agreement with Microsoft supports the AI data center project Kilby in Texas, expected to become one of the largest co-located gas power and data center projects in the U.S., marking a significant investment in the AI sector by the energy giant.
- Rising Power Demand: According to BloombergNEF, U.S. data center power demand is projected to double to 77 gigawatts by 2030, while the Kilby project will deliver approximately 2.67 gigawatts upon completion, enough to power around 2 million homes, addressing the increasing energy needs of AI computing.
- Investment Decision and Costs: Chevron anticipates making a formal Final Investment Decision by the end of this year, with the project costing around $7 billion, aiming to start power supply by 2028 and continuing full build-out into the 2030s, demonstrating confidence in future energy markets.
- New Business Platform: By developing gas-fired power plants, Chevron will leverage its natural gas resources in the Permian Basin and expertise in executing large-scale capital projects, expecting to achieve mid-teens returns on investment while providing stable cash flows and ongoing dividend growth for shareholders.
See More
Analysis of Microsoft's Stock Potential
- Market Underestimation: Since the beginning of the year, Microsoft's stock has declined over 20%, with investor concerns about software stocks and the exaggerated risk of AI disrupting its business model; however, Microsoft is enhancing existing products with AI capabilities, demonstrating strong business resilience.
- Strong Revenue Growth: In the most recent quarter ending in April, Microsoft achieved an 18% revenue growth, indicating that its AI business is now at an annual run rate of $37 billion, up 123% from last year, showcasing AI as a significant growth opportunity.
- Robust Profitability: Over the past four quarters, Microsoft has generated a staggering $125 billion in profit, providing a solid foundation for continued investment in AI and other growth opportunities, further solidifying its market position.
- Significant Valuation Potential: With a current market cap of approximately $2.8 trillion and trading at about 23 times trailing earnings, if Microsoft's valuation were to double to $5.6 trillion over the next five years, this target seems realistic given its strong fundamentals and attractive valuation.
See More
Chevron Signs 20-Year Power Agreement with Microsoft for AI Data Center
- Project Overview: Chevron's 20-year power agreement with Microsoft will support the construction of an AI data center in Texas, with Project Kilby expected to deliver approximately 2.67 GW of power, enough to supply around 2 million homes, marking a strategic expansion into emerging markets for Chevron.
- Investment Decision: Chevron anticipates making a final investment decision of about $7 billion by the end of this year, with plans to start supplying power by 2028, thereby enhancing its competitiveness in the energy market by gradually meeting Microsoft's growing energy needs.
- Cash Flow Stability: The long-term power contract with Microsoft will enable Chevron to achieve more predictable cash flows, reducing commodity price volatility risks in its oil and gas operations while providing ongoing returns to shareholders, including dividend growth, with expected mid-teens investment returns.
- Future Development Potential: Project Kilby is likely the first of many natural gas power projects Chevron will develop, as the increasing power demands of AI data centers present opportunities for Chevron to leverage its natural gas resources in the Permian Basin and expand its power business platform.
See More
