Small-cap stocks still look cheap after big July rally, Vanguard CIO says
Small-Cap Stock Rally: Vanguard's Greg Davis believes the recent rally in small-cap stocks has potential for further growth due to their relative valuation compared to large-cap stocks, with notable performance from small-cap value ETFs.
Market Outlook and Policy Impact: Davis advises investors to focus on long-term goals amidst political noise and anticipates Federal Reserve rate cuts that could benefit small-cap stocks, depending on economic growth and inflation trends.
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- Cloud Backlog Concerns: Microsoft has a staggering $625 billion cloud order backlog, with $281 billion attributed to OpenAI, which has reduced its computing capacity spending forecast, leading to decreased market confidence in the backlog and potential revenue growth.
- Upcoming Earnings Report: Microsoft is set to release its fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings on April 29, with investors eager for updates on AI products like Copilot and the Azure cloud platform to assess market performance and growth potential.
- Copilot Adoption Surge: As of December 31, Copilot licenses sold for enterprise 365 reached 15 million, representing a modest 3.7% penetration but showing a robust 160% year-over-year growth, indicating strong market demand and future growth potential.
- Valuation Appeal: With a current P/E ratio of 26.4, below its five-year average of 32.9, Microsoft stock appears undervalued, and if the earnings report alleviates backlog concerns, the stock could rebound significantly, offering substantial returns for investors.
- Microsoft Target Price Adjustment: Citigroup has reduced Microsoft's target price from $635 to $600.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects Citigroup's analysis of Microsoft's market performance and future prospects.
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: In 2026, leading hyperscalers are expected to collectively invest approximately $600 to $650 billion, primarily directed towards AI infrastructure, which will enhance market share and profitability for these companies.
- Integration of Quantum Services: Companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, IBM, and Amazon are embedding quantum capabilities into their platforms, launching a 'quantum-as-a-service' model that accelerates enterprise experimentation and generates incremental revenue, showcasing their first-mover advantage in the quantum market.
- Technological Integration Advantage: Ecosystem leaders like NVIDIA are enhancing quantum system stability and error mitigation through AI-driven tools, indicating that quantum computing will scale as part of a broader AI stack, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Microsoft's Market Outlook: Microsoft is projected to achieve a 25.4% earnings growth and a 16.3% revenue growth in 2026, with price targets from 46 analysts suggesting a 38.6% increase in stock price, reflecting positive market expectations for its AI-quantum integration strategy.
- Revenue Growth Outlook: ServiceNow anticipates Q1 2026 revenues of $3.75 billion, reflecting a 21.4% year-over-year increase, showcasing robust performance in the cloud platform sector despite intense competition.
- Earnings Improvement: The expected earnings per share of $0.95 indicates a 17.3% growth from the previous year, highlighting the company's success in customer retention and enterprise expansion, which is likely to drive future profitability.
- Expanding Customer Base: By the end of 2025, ServiceNow served over 8,800 global customers, with more than 85% being Fortune 500 companies, demonstrating widespread adoption of its cloud platform among large enterprises and enhancing its competitive edge.
- Increasing Market Challenges: Although the company expects subscription revenues between $3.65 billion and $3.67 billion for 2026, strong competition from AI solutions is projected to create a 150-basis-point headwind to revenue growth, indicating a complex market environment.

Expansion of Initiative: Microsoft is expanding its initiative to strengthen AI training and career pathways across skilled trades.
Focus on Skilled Trades: The initiative aims to enhance opportunities and resources for individuals pursuing careers in skilled trades through AI training.
- CEO Transition: Apple announced that Tim Cook will step down as CEO on September 1, with John Ternus taking over; Ternus, who has been with the company for 25 years, faces significant challenges in advancing the company's AI strategy.
- Strong iPhone Sales: In the latest quarter, Apple's iPhone revenue surged 23% year-over-year to $85.3 billion, primarily driven by robust sales of the iPhone 17 models, indicating strong consumer demand for new products.
- Lagging AI Strategy: Despite Apple's relatively conservative investment in AI, relying on Google's Gemini to enhance Siri features, the market's demand for AI-integrated hardware is growing, and Ternus must accelerate the application of AI technologies.
- Future Product Outlook: Apple plans to accelerate the development of three AI wearables centered around Siri, including smart glasses and AirPods with cameras, indicating potential innovation directions in the AI hardware space.










