Sees FY26 Adjusted EBITDA of $565M-$580M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 26 2026
0mins
Should l Buy FTDR?
Sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $565M-$580M. Sees FY26 capital expenditures $30M-$35M. Sees FY26 effective tax rate 25%.
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Analyst Views on FTDR
Wall Street analysts forecast FTDR stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 63.970
Low
63.00
Averages
67.00
High
71.00
Current: 63.970
Low
63.00
Averages
67.00
High
71.00
About FTDR
Frontdoor, Inc. is a provider of home warranties and new home structural warranties in the United States. Its customizable home warranties help customers protect and maintain their homes, typically their assets, from costly and unplanned breakdowns of essential home systems and appliances. It operates primarily under the American Home Shield and 2-10 HBW brands. Its annual service plan agreement covers the repair or replacement of components of up to 29 home systems and appliances, including electrical, plumbing, HVAC systems, water heaters, refrigerators, dishwashers and ranges/ovens/cooktops, as well as optional coverage for electronics, pools, spas and pumps. Its operations also include its Streem, a technology platform that uses augmented reality, computer vision and machine learning to provide services. It has approximately 2.1 million active home warranties across all brands in the United States, including its American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark and 2-10 HBW brands.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Board Nominations: The investor has also nominated two candidates to join CarMax's board of directors.
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- Investor Focus: Analysts' opinions are particularly crucial when considering the purchase of CRWD stock, as their ratings and price targets can directly impact short-term stock performance and investor confidence.
- Source of Updates: Comprehensive information on analyst rating changes, including upgrades and downgrades, has been published on Benzinga's analyst ratings page, providing investors with a holistic view of the market.
- Market Reaction Potential: Changes in analyst ratings may trigger market volatility, prompting investors to closely monitor these shifts to timely adjust their investment strategies and risk management practices.
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Frontdoor, Inc. Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings and Growth Outlook
- Strong Financial Performance: Frontdoor reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase for FY 2025, nearing $2.1 billion, with a record gross margin of 55% and a 9% rise in net income to $255 million, alongside a 25% growth in adjusted EBITDA to $553 million, reflecting robust market performance and profitability.
- Membership Growth Outlook: Management anticipates member count growth in 2026, marking the first increase since 2020, indicating significant progress in executing strategies in direct-to-consumer and real estate channels, which has improved customer renewal rates.
- Cash Flow and Liquidity: The company achieved record free cash flow of $390 million in FY 2025, ending the year with $660 million in liquidity and a net leverage ratio of only 1.4x, showcasing strong financial health and ample resources for future expansion.
- Strategic Investments and Buybacks: Frontdoor repurchased $87 million in shares during Q4, completing nearly half of the current $650 million buyback authorization, demonstrating confidence in its value and commitment to shareholders.
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Frontdoor Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 26
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- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 stands at $421.49 million, representing a 10% year-over-year increase, indicating some resilience in the company's market position despite the lower growth rate.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Frontdoor has consistently beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 88% of the time, showcasing a strong track record of financial reliability.
- Estimate Revisions: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced one downward revision with no upward changes, reflecting a cautious outlook from the market regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Frontdoor Earnings Preview: 14.4% Revenue Growth
- Revenue Beat: Frontdoor reported $618 million in revenue last quarter, a 14.4% year-over-year increase that exceeded analyst expectations, indicating strong market performance despite missing EBITDA guidance, which may affect investor confidence.
- Future Growth Outlook: The market anticipates a 10.1% year-over-year revenue growth for Frontdoor this quarter, a significant improvement from the 4.6% increase recorded in the same quarter last year, suggesting ongoing growth potential in the consumer services sector that could attract more investor interest.
- Analyst Confidence Stable: Analysts covering Frontdoor have generally reaffirmed their estimates over the past 30 days, indicating market confidence in the company's future performance, especially given its historical tendency to rarely miss Wall Street's revenue estimates.
- Market Environment Challenges: Despite a 6.1% decline in Frontdoor's stock price over the past month, the average analyst price target stands at $59.33, suggesting potential upside from the current share price of $55.56, reflecting cautious optimism about its future performance.
See More
Breach Inlet Capital Acquires New Stake in Frontdoor
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- Asset Allocation Insight: This new stake represents 4.62% of Breach Inlet's reportable U.S. equity assets, highlighting Frontdoor's core position in the consumer sector alongside companies like Hilton Grand Vacations.
- Strong Financial Performance: Frontdoor reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $618 million in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA rising 18% to $195 million, showcasing robust market performance and profitability.
- Long-Term Investment Outlook: While home warranty membership is expected to dip by 2%, improved retention at 79.4% and a 9% rise in renewal revenue indicate sustainable subscription economics, with EBITDA targets now raised to $550 million.
See More
CarMax Shares Rise as Activist Investor Acquires Stake, Urges New CEO to Act Swiftly
- Investor Stake: Starboard Value, an activist investor, disclosed a stake of approximately $350 million in CarMax, a used-car retailer.
- Board Nominations: The investor has also nominated two candidates to join CarMax's board of directors.
See More
Wall Street Analysts Adjust Ratings
- Analyst Rating Changes: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their ratings on several companies, reflecting varying market perspectives that could influence investor decisions and market trends.
- Investor Focus: Analysts' opinions are particularly crucial when considering the purchase of CRWD stock, as their ratings and price targets can directly impact short-term stock performance and investor confidence.
- Source of Updates: Comprehensive information on analyst rating changes, including upgrades and downgrades, has been published on Benzinga's analyst ratings page, providing investors with a holistic view of the market.
- Market Reaction Potential: Changes in analyst ratings may trigger market volatility, prompting investors to closely monitor these shifts to timely adjust their investment strategies and risk management practices.
See More
Frontdoor, Inc. Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings and Growth Outlook
- Strong Financial Performance: Frontdoor reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase for FY 2025, nearing $2.1 billion, with a record gross margin of 55% and a 9% rise in net income to $255 million, alongside a 25% growth in adjusted EBITDA to $553 million, reflecting robust market performance and profitability.
- Membership Growth Outlook: Management anticipates member count growth in 2026, marking the first increase since 2020, indicating significant progress in executing strategies in direct-to-consumer and real estate channels, which has improved customer renewal rates.
- Cash Flow and Liquidity: The company achieved record free cash flow of $390 million in FY 2025, ending the year with $660 million in liquidity and a net leverage ratio of only 1.4x, showcasing strong financial health and ample resources for future expansion.
- Strategic Investments and Buybacks: Frontdoor repurchased $87 million in shares during Q4, completing nearly half of the current $650 million buyback authorization, demonstrating confidence in its value and commitment to shareholders.
See More
Frontdoor Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 26
- Earnings Announcement: Frontdoor is scheduled to release its Q4 earnings on February 26 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.13, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 51.9%, which may dampen investor sentiment.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 stands at $421.49 million, representing a 10% year-over-year increase, indicating some resilience in the company's market position despite the lower growth rate.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Frontdoor has consistently beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 88% of the time, showcasing a strong track record of financial reliability.
- Estimate Revisions: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced one downward revision with no upward changes, reflecting a cautious outlook from the market regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Frontdoor Earnings Preview: 14.4% Revenue Growth
- Revenue Beat: Frontdoor reported $618 million in revenue last quarter, a 14.4% year-over-year increase that exceeded analyst expectations, indicating strong market performance despite missing EBITDA guidance, which may affect investor confidence.
- Future Growth Outlook: The market anticipates a 10.1% year-over-year revenue growth for Frontdoor this quarter, a significant improvement from the 4.6% increase recorded in the same quarter last year, suggesting ongoing growth potential in the consumer services sector that could attract more investor interest.
- Analyst Confidence Stable: Analysts covering Frontdoor have generally reaffirmed their estimates over the past 30 days, indicating market confidence in the company's future performance, especially given its historical tendency to rarely miss Wall Street's revenue estimates.
- Market Environment Challenges: Despite a 6.1% decline in Frontdoor's stock price over the past month, the average analyst price target stands at $59.33, suggesting potential upside from the current share price of $55.56, reflecting cautious optimism about its future performance.
See More
Breach Inlet Capital Acquires New Stake in Frontdoor
- New Stake Disclosure: Breach Inlet Capital Management disclosed a new position in Frontdoor by acquiring 169,976 shares in Q4 2025 for approximately $9.81 million, indicating confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Asset Allocation Insight: This new stake represents 4.62% of Breach Inlet's reportable U.S. equity assets, highlighting Frontdoor's core position in the consumer sector alongside companies like Hilton Grand Vacations.
- Strong Financial Performance: Frontdoor reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $618 million in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA rising 18% to $195 million, showcasing robust market performance and profitability.
- Long-Term Investment Outlook: While home warranty membership is expected to dip by 2%, improved retention at 79.4% and a 9% rise in renewal revenue indicate sustainable subscription economics, with EBITDA targets now raised to $550 million.
See More
