Rivian Q4 Deliveries Drop 31%, R2 Vehicle Launch Planned for H1 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 04 2026
0mins
Should l Buy RIVN?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Delivery Decline: Rivian delivered 9,745 vehicles in Q4 2025, a 31% year-over-year drop that exceeded Tesla's 16% decline for the same period, indicating weakened market demand.
- Production and Inventory Adjustment: Despite the drop in deliveries, Rivian's production increased slightly to 10,974 vehicles in Q4 from 10,720 in Q3, suggesting efforts to normalize inventory in response to market fluctuations.
- New Model Plans: Rivian is set to launch its new R2 vehicle in the first half of 2026, with a starting price of $45,000, which is expected to attract a broader market, especially given the current average new vehicle price of around $50,000.
- Ongoing Financial Pressure: Despite a growth in deliveries in Q3, Rivian reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $602 million, with full-year 2025 losses projected between $2.00 billion and $2.25 billion, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.
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Analyst Views on RIVN
Wall Street analysts forecast RIVN stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.940
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
Current: 14.940
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
About RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an automotive technology company, which is engaged in developing and manufacturing category-defining electric vehicles (EVs) as well as vertically integrated technologies and services. The Company’s R1 platform consists of two vehicles: the R1T, a two-row five-passenger pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row seven-passenger sport utility vehicle (SUV). In the commercial market, the Company offers a Rivian Commercial Vehicle (RCV) platform. The vehicle on this platform is the Electric Delivery Van (EDV), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon. The Company also offers FleetOS, its proprietary, end-to-end centralized fleet management subscription platform. It also offers a variety of services, including vehicle repair and maintenance, financing, insurance, joint venture, software subscriptions, and vehicle accessories, among others. Its other services include vehicle electrical architecture and software development services, and more.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Rivian Announces Q1 2026 Production and Delivery Figures
- Production and Delivery Data: Rivian produced 10,236 vehicles and delivered 10,365 in Q1 2026, indicating stability in production capacity and market demand, which enhances investor confidence in the company's operational performance.
- Delivery Guidance Reaffirmed: The company reaffirmed its delivery guidance for 2026, projecting between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles, reflecting management's confidence in future performance and potentially boosting shareholder expectations for long-term growth.
- Earnings Release Schedule: Rivian plans to release its Q1 2026 financial results after market close on April 30, 2026, and will host an audio webcast at 5:00 PM ET the same day, aiming to enhance transparency and attract investor interest.
- Forward-Looking Statements: The press release includes forward-looking statements regarding future performance expectations, highlighting the company's proactive risk management approach while seeking long-term growth opportunities despite inherent uncertainties.
See More
Rivian Launches Lower-Priced Model to Boost Sales
- New Model Launch: Rivian has recently introduced a lower-priced model, which is expected to significantly boost sales by catering to a broader consumer base and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Pricing Strategy Adjustment: By lowering the model's price, Rivian aims to attract budget-conscious consumers, thereby expanding its market share and increasing brand awareness.
- Sales Expectations Rise: The introduction of the new model is likely to stimulate consumer purchasing desire, with anticipated sales growth in the coming quarters, improving the company's overall financial performance.
- Positive Market Reaction: The market has responded favorably to the new model, with stock prices rising 3.08% on March 29, 2026, reflecting investor confidence in the company's future growth potential.
See More
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- Rivian R2 SUV Outlook: Rivian plans to launch the cheaper R2 SUV, which is expected to help it stand out in the competitive EV market; however, its production increased from 24,337 vehicles in 2022 to 57,232 in 2023, but is projected to decline to 49,476 in 2024, indicating market challenges.
- Production Capacity Enhancement: Rivian aims to triple its total production capacity by 2028, primarily through upgrades to its Illinois plant and the construction of a new facility in Georgia, which will significantly boost its sales and margins.
- Nio's Market Expansion: Nio continues to perform strongly in the EV market, with annual deliveries surging from 20,565 in 2019 to 326,028 in 2025; despite facing pressures from the US-China trade war and market competition, its expansion into Europe will further reduce reliance on the crowded Chinese market.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts expect Rivian and Nio's revenues to grow at CAGRs of 45% and 31%, respectively, over the next few years, with Rivian's adjusted EBITDA projected to turn positive by 2026, highlighting the potential of both companies in the EV market.
See More
Optimistic Outlook for Electric Vehicle Market Recovery
- Market Growth Potential: According to Grand View Research, the global EV market is projected to expand at a 32.5% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, despite current challenges such as high interest rates and increased competition.
- Rivian Production Plans: Rivian aims to boost sales with the launch of its cheaper R2 model, expecting to triple total production by 2028, although it faces supply chain constraints and competitive pressures.
- Nio's Market Strategy: Nio is reducing its dependence on the Chinese market by expanding its battery-swapping network and entering Europe, with revenue expected to grow at a 31% CAGR from 2025 to 2027.
- Financial Performance Comparison: Rivian's enterprise value stands at $20.8 billion, trading at just 3 times this year's sales, compared to Tesla's 14 times, indicating Rivian's relative undervaluation and attracting growth-oriented investors' attention.
See More
Rivian Reports 19% Year-on-Year Delivery Growth in Q1
- Delivery Growth: Rivian delivered 10,365 electric vehicles in Q1, marking a 19% year-on-year increase and surpassing Visible Alpha's estimate of 9,678, indicating a positive market response despite production challenges.
- Production Decline: In contrast to the delivery growth, Rivian's Q1 production plummeted by 70% to just 10,236 units, a significant drop that could impact the company's future delivery capabilities and market confidence.
- Delivery Guidance Reaffirmed: Rivian reaffirmed its commitment to delivering between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles by 2026, demonstrating confidence in long-term growth despite facing short-term production hurdles.
- Stock Price Reaction: Rivian's stock traded over 1% lower in Thursday's premarket, reflecting market caution regarding its production and delivery figures, which may affect investor expectations for the company's future performance.
See More
Rivian Reports Q1 Production and Delivery Figures
- Production and Delivery Data: Rivian produced 10,236 vehicles at its Normal, Illinois facility and delivered 10,365 vehicles during the quarter ending March 31, 2026, indicating that production and delivery results align with the company's outlook, showcasing stable operational capabilities.
- Delivery Guidance Reaffirmed: The company reaffirmed its 2026 delivery guidance range of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, reflecting management's confidence in future performance and aiming to bolster investor trust in its long-term growth potential.
- Earnings Release Schedule: Rivian is set to release its first-quarter financial results on April 30, 2026, after market close, with investors closely monitoring its financial performance to assess the company's competitiveness in the electric vehicle market.
- Stock Price Fluctuation: In pre-market trading on Nasdaq, Rivian shares fell 1.4% to $14.73, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance, which may impact investor confidence.
See More
Rivian Announces Q1 2026 Production and Delivery Figures
- Production and Delivery Data: Rivian produced 10,236 vehicles and delivered 10,365 in Q1 2026, indicating stability in production capacity and market demand, which enhances investor confidence in the company's operational performance.
- Delivery Guidance Reaffirmed: The company reaffirmed its delivery guidance for 2026, projecting between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles, reflecting management's confidence in future performance and potentially boosting shareholder expectations for long-term growth.
- Earnings Release Schedule: Rivian plans to release its Q1 2026 financial results after market close on April 30, 2026, and will host an audio webcast at 5:00 PM ET the same day, aiming to enhance transparency and attract investor interest.
- Forward-Looking Statements: The press release includes forward-looking statements regarding future performance expectations, highlighting the company's proactive risk management approach while seeking long-term growth opportunities despite inherent uncertainties.
See More
Rivian Launches Lower-Priced Model to Boost Sales
- New Model Launch: Rivian has recently introduced a lower-priced model, which is expected to significantly boost sales by catering to a broader consumer base and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Pricing Strategy Adjustment: By lowering the model's price, Rivian aims to attract budget-conscious consumers, thereby expanding its market share and increasing brand awareness.
- Sales Expectations Rise: The introduction of the new model is likely to stimulate consumer purchasing desire, with anticipated sales growth in the coming quarters, improving the company's overall financial performance.
- Positive Market Reaction: The market has responded favorably to the new model, with stock prices rising 3.08% on March 29, 2026, reflecting investor confidence in the company's future growth potential.
See More
Rivian and Nio's Prospects in the EV Market
- Rivian R2 SUV Outlook: Rivian plans to launch the cheaper R2 SUV, which is expected to help it stand out in the competitive EV market; however, its production increased from 24,337 vehicles in 2022 to 57,232 in 2023, but is projected to decline to 49,476 in 2024, indicating market challenges.
- Production Capacity Enhancement: Rivian aims to triple its total production capacity by 2028, primarily through upgrades to its Illinois plant and the construction of a new facility in Georgia, which will significantly boost its sales and margins.
- Nio's Market Expansion: Nio continues to perform strongly in the EV market, with annual deliveries surging from 20,565 in 2019 to 326,028 in 2025; despite facing pressures from the US-China trade war and market competition, its expansion into Europe will further reduce reliance on the crowded Chinese market.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts expect Rivian and Nio's revenues to grow at CAGRs of 45% and 31%, respectively, over the next few years, with Rivian's adjusted EBITDA projected to turn positive by 2026, highlighting the potential of both companies in the EV market.
See More
Optimistic Outlook for Electric Vehicle Market Recovery
- Market Growth Potential: According to Grand View Research, the global EV market is projected to expand at a 32.5% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, despite current challenges such as high interest rates and increased competition.
- Rivian Production Plans: Rivian aims to boost sales with the launch of its cheaper R2 model, expecting to triple total production by 2028, although it faces supply chain constraints and competitive pressures.
- Nio's Market Strategy: Nio is reducing its dependence on the Chinese market by expanding its battery-swapping network and entering Europe, with revenue expected to grow at a 31% CAGR from 2025 to 2027.
- Financial Performance Comparison: Rivian's enterprise value stands at $20.8 billion, trading at just 3 times this year's sales, compared to Tesla's 14 times, indicating Rivian's relative undervaluation and attracting growth-oriented investors' attention.
See More
Rivian Reports 19% Year-on-Year Delivery Growth in Q1
- Delivery Growth: Rivian delivered 10,365 electric vehicles in Q1, marking a 19% year-on-year increase and surpassing Visible Alpha's estimate of 9,678, indicating a positive market response despite production challenges.
- Production Decline: In contrast to the delivery growth, Rivian's Q1 production plummeted by 70% to just 10,236 units, a significant drop that could impact the company's future delivery capabilities and market confidence.
- Delivery Guidance Reaffirmed: Rivian reaffirmed its commitment to delivering between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles by 2026, demonstrating confidence in long-term growth despite facing short-term production hurdles.
- Stock Price Reaction: Rivian's stock traded over 1% lower in Thursday's premarket, reflecting market caution regarding its production and delivery figures, which may affect investor expectations for the company's future performance.
See More
Rivian Reports Q1 Production and Delivery Figures
- Production and Delivery Data: Rivian produced 10,236 vehicles at its Normal, Illinois facility and delivered 10,365 vehicles during the quarter ending March 31, 2026, indicating that production and delivery results align with the company's outlook, showcasing stable operational capabilities.
- Delivery Guidance Reaffirmed: The company reaffirmed its 2026 delivery guidance range of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, reflecting management's confidence in future performance and aiming to bolster investor trust in its long-term growth potential.
- Earnings Release Schedule: Rivian is set to release its first-quarter financial results on April 30, 2026, after market close, with investors closely monitoring its financial performance to assess the company's competitiveness in the electric vehicle market.
- Stock Price Fluctuation: In pre-market trading on Nasdaq, Rivian shares fell 1.4% to $14.73, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance, which may impact investor confidence.
See More
