Qifu Technology Projects FY25 Net Income to Decrease by 2% or Increase by 1%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 18 2025
0mins
Should l Buy QFIN?
Company's Risk Management Focus: The company prioritizes risk control amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and plans to adopt a cautious approach in its business planning for the upcoming quarters.
Fourth Quarter 2025 Projections: For Q4 2025, the company anticipates a net income between RMB0.92 billion and RMB1.12 billion, with a non-GAAP net income of RMB1.0 billion to RMB1.2 billion, indicating a year-on-year decline of 39% to 49%.
Full Year 2025 Income Expectations: The company expects a full-year net income between RMB5.88 billion and RMB6.08 billion, and a non-GAAP net income between RMB6.28 billion and RMB6.48 billion, reflecting a slight year-on-year change of -2% to +1%.
Outlook Subject to Change: The financial outlook provided is based on the company's current and preliminary views, which may be subject to significant changes.
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Analyst Views on QFIN
Wall Street analysts forecast QFIN stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 13.150
Low
21.00
Averages
36.93
High
50.00
Current: 13.150
Low
21.00
Averages
36.93
High
50.00
About QFIN
Qfin Holdings Inc, formerly Qifu Technology Inc, is a holding company mainly engaged in credit technology services. The Company’s services are divided into credit-driven services and platform services according to the nature of the service and the level of related credit risk. The credit-driven services match potential borrowers with financial institutions, enabling financial institutions to obtain borrowers, conduct credit evaluation, fund matching and post-loan services. The platform services include a full range of loan assistance and post-loan services under the capital-light model, intelligent marketing services, referral services, and risk management software as services (SaaS) for financial institution partners under the Intelligent Credit Engine (ICE) model.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Governance Progress: The report highlights Qfin's advancements in corporate governance, reflecting its commitment to transparency and accountability, aimed at enhancing trust among investors and clients.
- Tech Empowerment in Financial Services: By leveraging sophisticated machine learning models and data analytics, Qfin provides comprehensive technology services to financial institutions and SMEs, optimizing various stages of the loan lifecycle to enhance customer experience and service personalization.
- Future Development Commitment: The company pledges to continue promoting safe, convenient, and inclusive financial services, underscoring its strategic positioning and competitive edge in the rapidly evolving credit-tech industry.
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- Significant Net Income Drop: The non-GAAP net income for Q4 was RMB 1.07 billion, down 45.7% year-over-year, indicating substantial challenges in profitability that could affect investor confidence and stock performance.
- Commitment to Shareholder Returns: In 2025, the company repurchased approximately 21.1 million ADSs for $677 million, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns despite the pressure from declining profits, aiming to maintain investor trust.
- Growth in Tech Solutions: The technology solutions segment saw total loan volume increase by approximately 448% year-over-year, showcasing the company's strong capabilities in fintech and market position, which could become a key driver of future growth.
See More
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- Financial Overview: Qfin Holdings reported a non-GAAP EPS of $1.18 for Q4 2025, with revenue of $585.3 million reflecting an 8.71% year-over-year decline, missing expectations by $79.64 million, indicating significant market pressures.
- User Growth Metrics: As of December 31, 2025, Qfin's platform connected 167 financial institutional partners and 291.3 million consumers, marking an 11.5% increase from the previous year, showcasing its potential for expansion in financial services.
- Loan Origination Data: In Q4 2025, financial institutions on the platform originated 16,510,467 loans, with total loan facilitation volume at RMB 70.297 billion, a 21.8% decrease year-over-year, reflecting challenges from weakened market demand and increased competition.
- Future Outlook: The company anticipates a net income between RMB 830 million and RMB 880 million for Q1 2026, with non-GAAP net income projected between RMB 900 million and RMB 950 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 51% to 53%, indicating a cautious outlook for the future.
See More
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- High Yield: The forward yield of 10.81% not only attracts income-seeking investors but also enhances the stock's market appeal, potentially driving further price appreciation as investors seek high returns.
- Shareholder Return Plan: The dividend is payable on May 14, with a record date of April 22 and an ex-dividend date also on April 22, ensuring shareholders can promptly benefit from this return, thereby enhancing shareholder loyalty.
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