Q1 2026 Copper Production Reaches 662 Million Pounds
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
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Should l Buy FCX?
Consolidated production totaled 662 million pounds of copper, 97 thousand ounces of gold and 22 million pounds of molybdenum in first-quarter 2026. Consolidated sales totaled 657 million pounds of copper, 121 thousand ounces of gold and 24 million pounds of molybdenum in first-quarter 2026. Consolidated sales are expected to approximate 3.1 billion pounds of copper, 650 thousand ounces of gold and 90 million pounds of molybdenum for the year 2026, including 690 million pounds of copper, 140 thousand ounces of gold and 22 million pounds of molybdenum in second-quarter 2026. Revised sales estimates for the year 2026 primarily reflect timing adjustments to the Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up schedule. Operating cash flows totaled $1.5 billion, including $0.1 billion of working capital and other sources, in first-quarter 2026. Assuming prices of $6.00 per pound for copper, $4,500 per ounce for gold and $25.00 per pound for molybdenum for the remainder of 2026, operating cash flows are expected to approximate $8.7 billion, including $0.2 billion of working capital and other sources, for the year 2026. Capital expenditures totaled $1.0 billion, including $0.6 billion for major mining projects, in first-quarter 2026. Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.3 billion, including $3.0 billion for major mining projects, for the year 2026.
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Analyst Views on FCX
Wall Street analysts forecast FCX stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 61.050
Low
46.00
Averages
58.79
High
70.00
Current: 61.050
Low
46.00
Averages
58.79
High
70.00
About FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a metals company. The Company operates assets with reserves of copper, gold and molybdenum. Its portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, which is a copper and gold deposit; and operations in the United States, including the large-scale Morenci minerals district in North America and the Cerro Verde operation in South America. Its segments include Cerro Verde copper mine, Indonesia operations and United States Rod & Refining operations. It produces copper concentrate, cathode and continuous cast copper rod. Its copper ore from mines is processed by smelting and refining or by solution extraction and electrowinning (SX/EW). It produces copper cathodes at an electrolytic refinery located in El Paso, Texas. The SX/EW cathode is produced from the Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, Miami, Chino and Tyrone mines in the United States, and from the Cerro Verde and El Abra mines in South America.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Morgan Stanley Downgrades FCX to Equal Weight Amid Grasberg Delays
- Rating Downgrade: Morgan Stanley downgraded Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) from Overweight to Equal Weight with a $66 price target, reflecting limited upside potential after a 12.5% post-earnings selloff in the previous session.
- Production Delays Impact: The restart of the Grasberg copper operation in Indonesia faces further delays, increasing uncertainty around FCX's near-term earnings and limiting the company's ability to capitalize on rising copper and gold prices, as noted by analyst Carlos De Alba, who highlighted that slower production ramp-up will weigh on stock performance.
- Financial Valuation Comparison: Based on De Alba's new FY 2027 estimates, FCX currently trades at 7.4x EV/EBITDA and 14.8x P/E, compared to five-year averages of 6.7x and 18.8x, respectively, indicating a relative increase in valuation levels but still under significant pressure.
- Stable Long-Term Outlook: Although short-term higher costs and slower production ramp-up will impact stock performance, the analyst believes that Grasberg's long-term prospects remain stable, suggesting potential for future growth recovery.
See More
Key Wall Street Rating Changes Overview
- Intel Upgrade: Evercore ISI upgraded Intel from 'In Line' to 'Outperform', citing improved execution under the new CEO, who has fixed the balance sheet and put the company back on a competitive track, which is expected to drive stock price appreciation.
- Maxlinear Upgrade: Needham upgraded Maxlinear from 'Hold' to 'Buy' after the company reported a Q1 beat and guided Q2 well above Street expectations, indicating strong demand driven by data center growth, which could enhance future revenue.
- Shake Shack Initiation: Guggenheim initiated coverage on Shake Shack with a 'Buy' rating and a $120 price target, anticipating profit growth for the burger chain, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding its future performance.
- Oracle Initiation: Wedbush initiated coverage on Oracle with an 'Outperform' rating and a $225 price target, arguing that the market is fundamentally misinterpreting the company's aggressive investment cycle as speculative risk, which could lead to stock price increases.
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Stocks Decline on Iran News, ServiceNow and Tesla Drop
- Market Decline: Stocks fell sharply due to news related to Iran, with ServiceNow and Tesla experiencing significant drops, indicating the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- AI Stock Volatility: Despite the overall market downturn, Intel and Comfort Systems reported strong earnings in their AI-related segments, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the tech sector.
- Earnings Impact: The earnings reports from Intel and Comfort Systems drew investor attention, suggesting that despite a declining market, their performance in AI could provide new investment perspectives moving forward.
- Shifting Market Sentiment: As geopolitical tensions rise, investor sentiment has turned cautious, potentially leading to increased market volatility in the short term and affecting overall investment strategies.
See More
Freeport-McMoRan Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Sales Growth: Freeport-McMoRan's Q1 2026 copper and gold sales exceeded forecasts, achieving growth in revenues, EBITDA, and cash flow despite reduced operational capacity in Indonesia, demonstrating the company's resilience under adverse conditions.
- Insurance Recovery: The company reached a $700 million insurance recovery agreement with providers, expected to be collected in Q2, which will further enhance cash flow and financial stability.
- Shareholder Returns: In Q1, Freeport returned approximately $300 million to shareholders through common stock dividends and the repurchase of 1.7 million shares, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder value.
- Cost Outlook Adjustment: The expected unit cost for 2026 has been raised to $1.95 per pound from the previous estimate of $1.75, primarily due to rising diesel prices and lower contributions from the Grasberg mine, reflecting the cost pressures the company faces.
See More
Freeport (FCX) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
Record Investment in Latin American Copper Mining Amid Supply Shortages
- Supply Gap Intensifies: Analysts project a 10 million metric ton copper supply gap by 2040, with exploration budgets quadrupling since 2005 yet failing to yield sufficient new discoveries, leading to sustained price increases that impact corporate strategies.
- Key Project Advancements: Salazar Resources has identified a high-priority copper-gold porphyry target at its Monja Project in Ecuador, with rock samples showing up to 4.77% copper, indicating significant mineral potential that enhances the company's competitive positioning in the market.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Salazar has completed the acquisition of four copper-gold exploration properties from Silvercorp Metals, strengthening its resource base in South America, with historical drilling at Santiago revealing grades of 0.25% copper and 0.40 g/t gold, indicating strong development potential.
- Future Production Plans: Salazar's El Domo copper-gold mine has a construction budget of $284 million, with production targeted for July 2027, having moved over 2.6 million cubic meters of material, and improved processes have increased copper and gold recovery rates, showcasing the project's economic viability and growth potential.
See More
Morgan Stanley Downgrades FCX to Equal Weight Amid Grasberg Delays
- Rating Downgrade: Morgan Stanley downgraded Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) from Overweight to Equal Weight with a $66 price target, reflecting limited upside potential after a 12.5% post-earnings selloff in the previous session.
- Production Delays Impact: The restart of the Grasberg copper operation in Indonesia faces further delays, increasing uncertainty around FCX's near-term earnings and limiting the company's ability to capitalize on rising copper and gold prices, as noted by analyst Carlos De Alba, who highlighted that slower production ramp-up will weigh on stock performance.
- Financial Valuation Comparison: Based on De Alba's new FY 2027 estimates, FCX currently trades at 7.4x EV/EBITDA and 14.8x P/E, compared to five-year averages of 6.7x and 18.8x, respectively, indicating a relative increase in valuation levels but still under significant pressure.
- Stable Long-Term Outlook: Although short-term higher costs and slower production ramp-up will impact stock performance, the analyst believes that Grasberg's long-term prospects remain stable, suggesting potential for future growth recovery.
See More
Key Wall Street Rating Changes Overview
- Intel Upgrade: Evercore ISI upgraded Intel from 'In Line' to 'Outperform', citing improved execution under the new CEO, who has fixed the balance sheet and put the company back on a competitive track, which is expected to drive stock price appreciation.
- Maxlinear Upgrade: Needham upgraded Maxlinear from 'Hold' to 'Buy' after the company reported a Q1 beat and guided Q2 well above Street expectations, indicating strong demand driven by data center growth, which could enhance future revenue.
- Shake Shack Initiation: Guggenheim initiated coverage on Shake Shack with a 'Buy' rating and a $120 price target, anticipating profit growth for the burger chain, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding its future performance.
- Oracle Initiation: Wedbush initiated coverage on Oracle with an 'Outperform' rating and a $225 price target, arguing that the market is fundamentally misinterpreting the company's aggressive investment cycle as speculative risk, which could lead to stock price increases.
See More
Stocks Decline on Iran News, ServiceNow and Tesla Drop
- Market Decline: Stocks fell sharply due to news related to Iran, with ServiceNow and Tesla experiencing significant drops, indicating the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- AI Stock Volatility: Despite the overall market downturn, Intel and Comfort Systems reported strong earnings in their AI-related segments, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the tech sector.
- Earnings Impact: The earnings reports from Intel and Comfort Systems drew investor attention, suggesting that despite a declining market, their performance in AI could provide new investment perspectives moving forward.
- Shifting Market Sentiment: As geopolitical tensions rise, investor sentiment has turned cautious, potentially leading to increased market volatility in the short term and affecting overall investment strategies.
See More
Freeport-McMoRan Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Sales Growth: Freeport-McMoRan's Q1 2026 copper and gold sales exceeded forecasts, achieving growth in revenues, EBITDA, and cash flow despite reduced operational capacity in Indonesia, demonstrating the company's resilience under adverse conditions.
- Insurance Recovery: The company reached a $700 million insurance recovery agreement with providers, expected to be collected in Q2, which will further enhance cash flow and financial stability.
- Shareholder Returns: In Q1, Freeport returned approximately $300 million to shareholders through common stock dividends and the repurchase of 1.7 million shares, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder value.
- Cost Outlook Adjustment: The expected unit cost for 2026 has been raised to $1.95 per pound from the previous estimate of $1.75, primarily due to rising diesel prices and lower contributions from the Grasberg mine, reflecting the cost pressures the company faces.
See More
Freeport (FCX) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
Record Investment in Latin American Copper Mining Amid Supply Shortages
- Supply Gap Intensifies: Analysts project a 10 million metric ton copper supply gap by 2040, with exploration budgets quadrupling since 2005 yet failing to yield sufficient new discoveries, leading to sustained price increases that impact corporate strategies.
- Key Project Advancements: Salazar Resources has identified a high-priority copper-gold porphyry target at its Monja Project in Ecuador, with rock samples showing up to 4.77% copper, indicating significant mineral potential that enhances the company's competitive positioning in the market.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Salazar has completed the acquisition of four copper-gold exploration properties from Silvercorp Metals, strengthening its resource base in South America, with historical drilling at Santiago revealing grades of 0.25% copper and 0.40 g/t gold, indicating strong development potential.
- Future Production Plans: Salazar's El Domo copper-gold mine has a construction budget of $284 million, with production targeted for July 2027, having moved over 2.6 million cubic meters of material, and improved processes have increased copper and gold recovery rates, showcasing the project's economic viability and growth potential.
See More
