Potential Major Changes in Mortgage Industry as Regulatory Outlook Shifts
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy RKT?
Source: seekingalpha
- Market Share Shift: According to Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, there has been a significant decline in banks' share of mortgage origination and servicing since 2008, with banks originating about 60% of mortgages in 2008, dropping to only 35% by 2023, indicating a reduced role of traditional banks in the mortgage market.
- Regulatory Policy Changes: Bowman proposed removing the requirement to deduct mortgage servicing assets from regulatory capital while maintaining a 250% risk weight on those assets, which could alter banks' capital structures and change the risk management approach for mortgage loans.
- Competitive Landscape Changes: With these regulatory adjustments, non-bank lenders like Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage may face increased competitive pressure from traditional banks, forcing them to defend their margins and potentially leading to lower market prices for consumers.
- Market Outlook: The new regulatory framework could incentivize banks to re-enter the mortgage market more aggressively, particularly for loans sold to or guaranteed by government-sponsored entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, thereby reshaping the competitive dynamics of the real estate market and impacting consumer loan costs.
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Analyst Views on RKT
Wall Street analysts forecast RKT stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 18.680
Low
18.00
Averages
22.18
High
25.00
Current: 18.680
Low
18.00
Averages
22.18
High
25.00
About RKT
Rocket Companies, Inc. is a fintech platform including mortgage, real estate and personal finance businesses: Rocket Mortgage, Redfin, Mr. Cooper, Rocket Homes, Rocket Close, Rocket Money, and Rocket Loans. The Company's full suite of products empowers its clients across financial wellness, personal loans, home search, mortgage finance, title and closing. Through these businesses, it delivers client solutions leveraging its Rocket platform. It operates in two segments: Direct to Consumer and Partner Network. In the Direct to Consumer segment, clients have the ability to interact with Rocket Mortgage digitally and/or with the Company's mortgage bankers. It provides client service and leverages its brand to strengthen its wholesale relationships, through Rocket Pro, as well as enterprise partnerships, both driving growth in its Partner Network segment. The Company's capabilities span the entirety of homeownership, such as home search, financing, title, closing and servicing.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Potential Major Changes in Mortgage Industry as Regulatory Outlook Shifts
- Market Share Shift: According to Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, there has been a significant decline in banks' share of mortgage origination and servicing since 2008, with banks originating about 60% of mortgages in 2008, dropping to only 35% by 2023, indicating a reduced role of traditional banks in the mortgage market.
- Regulatory Policy Changes: Bowman proposed removing the requirement to deduct mortgage servicing assets from regulatory capital while maintaining a 250% risk weight on those assets, which could alter banks' capital structures and change the risk management approach for mortgage loans.
- Competitive Landscape Changes: With these regulatory adjustments, non-bank lenders like Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage may face increased competitive pressure from traditional banks, forcing them to defend their margins and potentially leading to lower market prices for consumers.
- Market Outlook: The new regulatory framework could incentivize banks to re-enter the mortgage market more aggressively, particularly for loans sold to or guaranteed by government-sponsored entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, thereby reshaping the competitive dynamics of the real estate market and impacting consumer loan costs.
See More
Cash Homebuyers Drop to 29% in December, Lowest Since 2020
- Decline in Cash Buyers: In December, 29% of U.S. homebuyers paid in cash, down from 30.3% a year earlier and marking the lowest share since 2020, indicating a shift towards financing as mortgage rates decrease.
- Increased Buyer Leverage: With sellers outnumbering buyers by a record 47%, buyers now possess greater negotiating power, reducing the necessity for cash offers to secure homes compared to the competitive pandemic market.
- FHA Loan Usage Falls: The share of homebuyers using FHA loans dropped to 14.4% in December, the lowest in four years, reflecting the challenges faced by low-to-moderate-income buyers in a high-cost housing market.
- Rise in Conventional Loans: The proportion of mortgaged homebuyers using conventional loans increased to 78.6% in December, up from 78.2% a year prior, suggesting a preference for traditional financing amidst rising housing costs.
See More
U.S. Homebuyers' Down Payment Percentage Declines
- Declining Down Payment Percentage: In December 2025, the average down payment percentage for U.S. homebuyers fell to 15.2%, down 1.5 percentage points from 16.7% a year earlier, indicating a shift towards more affordable housing options amid high prices and economic uncertainty.
- Change in Down Payment Amount: The typical down payment amount was $64,000, marking the first decline in five months, which suggests that buyers are gaining more negotiating power in a market where supply exceeds demand.
- Mortgage Rate Impact: Although mortgage rates remain above the historical lows seen during the pandemic, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.09%, helping to lower monthly payments and potentially drawing more homebuyers into the market.
- Significant Regional Variations: Among major metros, San Francisco had the highest median down payment at $400,310, while Virginia Beach had the lowest at $8,700, highlighting substantial disparities in homebuying capacity across different regions.
See More
Rocket Companies Stock Drops 5.49% Amid Housing Market Concerns
- Market Reaction Negative: Rocket Companies' stock fell 5.49% to $17.62 on Thursday, reflecting heightened investor aversion to risks in real estate intermediaries following Zillow's disappointing earnings report.
- Zillow Earnings Impact: Despite Zillow reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $654 million, exceeding expectations, its adjusted EPS of 39 cents fell short, leading to a 19% drop in its shares, which negatively affected Rocket's market performance.
- AI Tool Concerns: Investor anxiety over new AI tools potentially disrupting the real estate transaction ecosystem has further pressured Rocket and other online housing platforms, resulting in fragile market sentiment and elevated risk premiums.
- Earnings Outlook Optimistic: Rocket is set to report earnings on February 26, with an EPS estimate of 8 cents and revenue forecast of $2.28 billion, indicating that despite current pressures, the market remains optimistic about its growth prospects.
See More
Single Americans Face Increased Housing Burden
- Housing Cost Disparity: Single condo owners in Washington, D.C. pay nearly $18,000 more annually than those sharing a mortgage, with the Bay Area gap exceeding $40,000, highlighting the significant financial strain on single individuals and impacting their overall financial stability.
- Income Discrepancy: The survey reveals that nearly 48% of single respondents earn less than $50,000 annually, compared to just 9% of married individuals, indicating that single people face greater economic pressures that limit their home-buying capabilities.
- Increased Financial Burden: Single individuals not only lack the tax benefits enjoyed by married couples but also bear the full cost of living expenses alone, exacerbating their financial strain and contributing to the housing affordability crisis.
- Policy Recommendations: Redfin economists suggest that policymakers should consider the increasing proportion of single households when addressing housing affordability issues, potentially advocating for relaxed regulations to facilitate the construction of studio apartments and small housing units to alleviate the housing pressure on singles.
See More
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Significantly
- Pending Sales Drop: For the four weeks ending February 8, U.S. pending home sales fell 5.1% year-over-year, marking the largest decline in over a year, indicating that buyers are becoming more cautious in their choices and negotiations, which could impact market activity.
- Extended Selling Period: The typical U.S. home took 66 days to sell, one week longer than last year, representing the longest duration since early 2019, suggesting a shift towards a buyer's market that may lead to further price reductions.
- Increased Supply: The housing supply reached 5.5 months, the highest in seven years, reflecting a 1.8% year-over-year decline in new listings and about a 1% drop in active listings, which could influence future price trends in the market.
- Buyer Market Advantage: Despite high prices, the median monthly housing payment decreased by 3.8% while wages increased by approximately 4%, giving buyers leverage in negotiations, with some able to purchase homes below asking prices, indicating subtle shifts in market dynamics.
See More
Potential Major Changes in Mortgage Industry as Regulatory Outlook Shifts
- Market Share Shift: According to Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, there has been a significant decline in banks' share of mortgage origination and servicing since 2008, with banks originating about 60% of mortgages in 2008, dropping to only 35% by 2023, indicating a reduced role of traditional banks in the mortgage market.
- Regulatory Policy Changes: Bowman proposed removing the requirement to deduct mortgage servicing assets from regulatory capital while maintaining a 250% risk weight on those assets, which could alter banks' capital structures and change the risk management approach for mortgage loans.
- Competitive Landscape Changes: With these regulatory adjustments, non-bank lenders like Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage may face increased competitive pressure from traditional banks, forcing them to defend their margins and potentially leading to lower market prices for consumers.
- Market Outlook: The new regulatory framework could incentivize banks to re-enter the mortgage market more aggressively, particularly for loans sold to or guaranteed by government-sponsored entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, thereby reshaping the competitive dynamics of the real estate market and impacting consumer loan costs.
See More
Cash Homebuyers Drop to 29% in December, Lowest Since 2020
- Decline in Cash Buyers: In December, 29% of U.S. homebuyers paid in cash, down from 30.3% a year earlier and marking the lowest share since 2020, indicating a shift towards financing as mortgage rates decrease.
- Increased Buyer Leverage: With sellers outnumbering buyers by a record 47%, buyers now possess greater negotiating power, reducing the necessity for cash offers to secure homes compared to the competitive pandemic market.
- FHA Loan Usage Falls: The share of homebuyers using FHA loans dropped to 14.4% in December, the lowest in four years, reflecting the challenges faced by low-to-moderate-income buyers in a high-cost housing market.
- Rise in Conventional Loans: The proportion of mortgaged homebuyers using conventional loans increased to 78.6% in December, up from 78.2% a year prior, suggesting a preference for traditional financing amidst rising housing costs.
See More
U.S. Homebuyers' Down Payment Percentage Declines
- Declining Down Payment Percentage: In December 2025, the average down payment percentage for U.S. homebuyers fell to 15.2%, down 1.5 percentage points from 16.7% a year earlier, indicating a shift towards more affordable housing options amid high prices and economic uncertainty.
- Change in Down Payment Amount: The typical down payment amount was $64,000, marking the first decline in five months, which suggests that buyers are gaining more negotiating power in a market where supply exceeds demand.
- Mortgage Rate Impact: Although mortgage rates remain above the historical lows seen during the pandemic, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.09%, helping to lower monthly payments and potentially drawing more homebuyers into the market.
- Significant Regional Variations: Among major metros, San Francisco had the highest median down payment at $400,310, while Virginia Beach had the lowest at $8,700, highlighting substantial disparities in homebuying capacity across different regions.
See More
Rocket Companies Stock Drops 5.49% Amid Housing Market Concerns
- Market Reaction Negative: Rocket Companies' stock fell 5.49% to $17.62 on Thursday, reflecting heightened investor aversion to risks in real estate intermediaries following Zillow's disappointing earnings report.
- Zillow Earnings Impact: Despite Zillow reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $654 million, exceeding expectations, its adjusted EPS of 39 cents fell short, leading to a 19% drop in its shares, which negatively affected Rocket's market performance.
- AI Tool Concerns: Investor anxiety over new AI tools potentially disrupting the real estate transaction ecosystem has further pressured Rocket and other online housing platforms, resulting in fragile market sentiment and elevated risk premiums.
- Earnings Outlook Optimistic: Rocket is set to report earnings on February 26, with an EPS estimate of 8 cents and revenue forecast of $2.28 billion, indicating that despite current pressures, the market remains optimistic about its growth prospects.
See More
Single Americans Face Increased Housing Burden
- Housing Cost Disparity: Single condo owners in Washington, D.C. pay nearly $18,000 more annually than those sharing a mortgage, with the Bay Area gap exceeding $40,000, highlighting the significant financial strain on single individuals and impacting their overall financial stability.
- Income Discrepancy: The survey reveals that nearly 48% of single respondents earn less than $50,000 annually, compared to just 9% of married individuals, indicating that single people face greater economic pressures that limit their home-buying capabilities.
- Increased Financial Burden: Single individuals not only lack the tax benefits enjoyed by married couples but also bear the full cost of living expenses alone, exacerbating their financial strain and contributing to the housing affordability crisis.
- Policy Recommendations: Redfin economists suggest that policymakers should consider the increasing proportion of single households when addressing housing affordability issues, potentially advocating for relaxed regulations to facilitate the construction of studio apartments and small housing units to alleviate the housing pressure on singles.
See More
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Significantly
- Pending Sales Drop: For the four weeks ending February 8, U.S. pending home sales fell 5.1% year-over-year, marking the largest decline in over a year, indicating that buyers are becoming more cautious in their choices and negotiations, which could impact market activity.
- Extended Selling Period: The typical U.S. home took 66 days to sell, one week longer than last year, representing the longest duration since early 2019, suggesting a shift towards a buyer's market that may lead to further price reductions.
- Increased Supply: The housing supply reached 5.5 months, the highest in seven years, reflecting a 1.8% year-over-year decline in new listings and about a 1% drop in active listings, which could influence future price trends in the market.
- Buyer Market Advantage: Despite high prices, the median monthly housing payment decreased by 3.8% while wages increased by approximately 4%, giving buyers leverage in negotiations, with some able to purchase homes below asking prices, indicating subtle shifts in market dynamics.
See More
