Potential Impact of AI on the White-Collar Job Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Surge in Unemployment: Citrini predicts that by 2028, the unemployment rate could rise from 4.3% to over 10%, primarily due to the displacement of numerous white-collar jobs by AI, which could negatively impact consumer spending and potentially trigger an economic recession.
- Market Turmoil: The research suggests that the S&P 500 could decline by 38% between late 2026 and mid-2028, although the actual economic downturn may be obscured by increased productivity, leading to what is termed 'Ghost GDP'.
- Reduction in Labor Costs: As AI technology advances, companies are expected to cut jobs to protect margins, particularly among high-paid white-collar workers, which will reduce consumer spending and affect the economy's structure, where 70% of GDP is driven by consumption.
- Technological Disruption: AI will transform industries like insurance and real estate by eliminating human inefficiencies, leading to the disappearance of traditional intermediary roles, which will significantly impact revenue models and employment structures in these sectors.
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Analyst Views on V
Wall Street analysts forecast V stock price to rise
25 Analyst Rating
23 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 320.140
Low
330.00
Averages
406.59
High
450.00
Current: 320.140
Low
330.00
Averages
406.59
High
450.00
About V
Visa Inc. is a global payments technology company. It facilitates global commerce and money movement across more than 200 countries and territories among a global set of consumers, merchants, financial institutions and government entities through technologies. It operates through the Payment Services segment. It provides transaction processing services (primarily authorization, clearing and settlement) to its financial institution and merchant clients through VisaNet, its proprietary advanced transaction processing network. It offers a range of Visa-branded payment products that its clients, including nearly 14,500 financial institutions, use to develop and offer payment solutions or services, including credit, debit, prepaid and cash access programs for individual, business and government account holders. It also provides value-added services to its clients, including issuing solutions, acceptance solutions, risk and identity solutions, open banking solutions and advisory services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Issuance Details: In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, PayPay disclosed plans to sell nearly 55 million American depositary shares priced between $17 and $20 each, which would value the company at approximately $13.4 billion at the top of the range.
- Market Context Analysis: This IPO is taking place amid an unstable U.S. listing environment, where geopolitical tensions and market swings have led some companies to delay offerings, indicating PayPay's determination to pursue growth despite uncertainties.
- Industry Leadership Position: As a leader in Japan's cashless payment sector, PayPay has rapidly expanded since its establishment in 2018 by waiving merchant fees and offering consumer incentives, achieving around 70 million registered users and driving Japan's shift toward cashless transactions.
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Potential Impact of AI on the White-Collar Job Market
- Surge in Unemployment: Citrini predicts that by 2028, the unemployment rate could rise from 4.3% to over 10%, primarily due to the displacement of numerous white-collar jobs by AI, which could negatively impact consumer spending and potentially trigger an economic recession.
- Market Turmoil: The research suggests that the S&P 500 could decline by 38% between late 2026 and mid-2028, although the actual economic downturn may be obscured by increased productivity, leading to what is termed 'Ghost GDP'.
- Reduction in Labor Costs: As AI technology advances, companies are expected to cut jobs to protect margins, particularly among high-paid white-collar workers, which will reduce consumer spending and affect the economy's structure, where 70% of GDP is driven by consumption.
- Technological Disruption: AI will transform industries like insurance and real estate by eliminating human inefficiencies, leading to the disappearance of traditional intermediary roles, which will significantly impact revenue models and employment structures in these sectors.
See More
AI Could Trigger Economic Recession
- Surge in Unemployment: According to the analysis by Citrini and Alap Shah, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is projected to rise from the current 4.3% to over 10% by 2028, which will significantly reduce consumer spending and impact economic growth.
- Market Crash Forecast: Citrini predicts that the S&P 500 index will decline by 38% between late 2026 and mid-2028, although the economic data may obscure this recession due to increased productivity, leading to what is termed 'Ghost GDP'.
- Disappearance of White-Collar Jobs: As AI technology advances, many white-collar jobs will be automated, and companies will cut high-paid positions to protect margins, potentially shrinking the consumer market and affecting overall economic health.
- Elimination of Human Inefficiencies: AI agents will remove many inefficiencies in business, leading to the replacement of traditional roles in industries like insurance and real estate, which will disrupt revenue models and employment structures in these sectors.
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PayPay Plans to Raise $1.1 Billion in U.S. IPO
- IPO Fundraising Plan: PayPay is moving forward with plans to raise up to $1.1 billion in a U.S. initial public offering, seeking a valuation of as much as $13.4 billion despite volatile global markets, demonstrating confidence in its growth potential.
- Issuance Details: In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, PayPay disclosed plans to sell nearly 55 million American depositary shares priced between $17 and $20 each, which would value the company at approximately $13.4 billion at the top of the range.
- Market Context Analysis: This IPO is taking place amid an unstable U.S. listing environment, where geopolitical tensions and market swings have led some companies to delay offerings, indicating PayPay's determination to pursue growth despite uncertainties.
- Industry Leadership Position: As a leader in Japan's cashless payment sector, PayPay has rapidly expanded since its establishment in 2018 by waiving merchant fees and offering consumer incentives, achieving around 70 million registered users and driving Japan's shift toward cashless transactions.
See More
Potential Impact of AI on the White-Collar Job Market
- Surge in Unemployment: Citrini predicts that by 2028, the unemployment rate could rise from 4.3% to over 10%, primarily due to the displacement of numerous white-collar jobs by AI, which could negatively impact consumer spending and potentially trigger an economic recession.
- Market Turmoil: The research suggests that the S&P 500 could decline by 38% between late 2026 and mid-2028, although the actual economic downturn may be obscured by increased productivity, leading to what is termed 'Ghost GDP'.
- Reduction in Labor Costs: As AI technology advances, companies are expected to cut jobs to protect margins, particularly among high-paid white-collar workers, which will reduce consumer spending and affect the economy's structure, where 70% of GDP is driven by consumption.
- Technological Disruption: AI will transform industries like insurance and real estate by eliminating human inefficiencies, leading to the disappearance of traditional intermediary roles, which will significantly impact revenue models and employment structures in these sectors.
See More
AI Could Trigger Economic Recession
- Surge in Unemployment: According to the analysis by Citrini and Alap Shah, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is projected to rise from the current 4.3% to over 10% by 2028, which will significantly reduce consumer spending and impact economic growth.
- Market Crash Forecast: Citrini predicts that the S&P 500 index will decline by 38% between late 2026 and mid-2028, although the economic data may obscure this recession due to increased productivity, leading to what is termed 'Ghost GDP'.
- Disappearance of White-Collar Jobs: As AI technology advances, many white-collar jobs will be automated, and companies will cut high-paid positions to protect margins, potentially shrinking the consumer market and affecting overall economic health.
- Elimination of Human Inefficiencies: AI agents will remove many inefficiencies in business, leading to the replacement of traditional roles in industries like insurance and real estate, which will disrupt revenue models and employment structures in these sectors.
See More
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- Transaction Growth: In fiscal 2025, Visa processed 257.5 billion transactions, marking a 10% year-over-year increase, indicating that despite market concerns about AI's impact, Visa's core business remains robust, ensuring stable revenue streams.
- Revenue Performance: The company generated $40 billion in revenue during the same fiscal year, and although it collects a small fee per transaction, the sheer volume results in substantial earnings, showcasing Visa's strong position in the payment processing sector.
- Valuation Appeal: Visa's price-to-sales ratio has dropped to 16, notably below its five-year average of 20, while its price-to-earnings ratio stands at approximately 29, lower than the long-term average of 33, suggesting that for growth-oriented investors, Visa stock presents an attractive investment opportunity.
- AI Technology Utilization: Despite Wall Street's worries about the potential negative impacts of AI, Visa is leveraging this technology to enhance its operational efficiency, indicating that the company can still seize growth opportunities in a rapidly evolving market.
See More
Circle's USD Coin Shows Growth Potential
- Market Performance: Circle Internet Group went public last June at $31 per share and is now trading near $94, indicating strong market demand and investor confidence, although its high P/E ratio of 84 suggests significant investment risk.
- Revenue Sources: The majority of Circle's revenue comes from reserve interest income, with projections indicating a 25% CAGR in revenue growth by 2027, reflecting the ongoing rise in demand for its stablecoins, which could enhance the company's profitability.
- Technology Integration: Companies like Visa and Intuit have recently integrated USD Coin into their ecosystems, demonstrating the practical utility of Circle's stablecoin in accelerating financial transactions, further boosting its market acceptance and usage.
- Profit Expectations: Analysts expect Circle to turn profitable in 2023, with EPS projected to grow by 69% by 2027, providing long-term investment confidence for investors, although it may not turn a $10,000 investment into a millionaire's fortune in the short term.
See More
Circle Internet Group's Stock Soars
- Stock Performance: Since going public last June at $31, Circle Internet Group's stock has surged to nearly $94, representing a 203% increase, which reflects strong market demand and investor confidence, potentially attracting more attention to its future growth prospects.
- Revenue Model: Circle generates most of its revenue from reserve interest income derived from bank deposits and short-term Treasuries, while also earning transaction fees for routing payments through its blockchain, with significant revenue growth expected as it secures more financial partners.
- Growth Expectations: Analysts forecast Circle's revenue to grow at a 25% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, with profitability anticipated this year and a projected 69% increase in EPS by 2027, indicating strong growth potential amid rising demand for stablecoins.
- Investment Outlook: Although Circle's stock currently trades at 84 times earnings, if it meets analysts' estimates and maintains a 25% CAGR over the next nine years, its stock could rise sixfold over the next decade, although this may not be sufficient to turn a $10,000 investment into $1 million.
See More
