Philip Morris: Turning The Corner
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 19 2021
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Source: SeekingAlpha
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Analyst Views on PM
Wall Street analysts forecast PM stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 157.330
Low
175.00
Averages
191.95
High
210.00
Current: 157.330
Low
175.00
Averages
191.95
High
210.00
About PM
Philip Morris International Inc. is an international tobacco company. The Company’s product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products. Its smoke-free business (SFB) also includes wellness and healthcare products, as well as consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. The Company’s segments include Europe Region; South and Southeast Asia, Commonwealth of Independent States, Middle East and Africa Region (SSEA, CIS & MEA); East Asia, Australia & PMI Global Travel Retail (EA, AU & PMI GTR), and Americas Region. The Company's brands include Marlboro, HEETS, IQOS, IQOS ILUMA, TEREA, VEEV and ZYN. Its IQOS smoke-free product brand portfolio includes heated tobacco and nicotine-containing vapor products. Its international cigarette brands are Chesterfield, L&M, and Philip Morris. It also owns a number of local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe and Sampoerna A in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Impact of Energy Prices: The Iran war has led to a one-third increase in oil prices, raising fuel and shipping costs, prompting investors to seek safe investment avenues, with consumer staples stocks favored for their defensive and recession-resistant characteristics.
- Dollar General Performance: Dollar General has a strong track record during economic downturns, with management noting a shift in consumer behavior due to high energy prices and inflation, anticipating comparable sales and profit growth in 2025 as it continues to expand and renovate stores.
- Philip Morris Growth: Philip Morris International has pivoted successfully to next-gen products like Zyn and Iqos, achieving a 6.5% organic revenue growth to $40.6 billion, with a solid 3.7% dividend yield, positioning it well to weather market volatility amid the Iran conflict.
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- GDP Revision Impact: The U.S. fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7% in March, increasing the risk of economic slowdown, and investors should be aware of the potential for two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which could be viewed as a shallow recession.
- Consumer Staples ETF Performance: The State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) has performed well amid market turmoil, rising 5% this year, with major holdings including Walmart (11.85%) and Coca-Cola (6.46%), demonstrating the resilience of consumer staples in uncertain economic conditions.
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- Unclear Scientific Evidence: Although the FDA launched the pilot under pressure, it has not fully resolved the evidence balance between public health benefits for adult smokers and youth addiction risks, resulting in a slow approval process.
- Market Growth Potential: Nicotine pouches represent the fastest-growing tobacco category in the U.S., driving companies to seek quicker authorizations; however, advocacy groups warn that easier access could increase nicotine use among teenagers.
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See More
U.S. Consumer Spending Shows Unexpected Growth Amid Iran War
- Retail Sales Growth: U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in February compared to the previous month, surpassing the expected 0.4% growth, indicating broad consumer spending increases in discretionary categories like department stores, restaurants, and cars, despite ongoing recession concerns.
- Impact of Energy Prices: The Iran war has led to a one-third increase in oil prices, raising fuel and shipping costs, prompting investors to seek safe investment avenues, with consumer staples stocks favored for their defensive and recession-resistant characteristics.
- Dollar General Performance: Dollar General has a strong track record during economic downturns, with management noting a shift in consumer behavior due to high energy prices and inflation, anticipating comparable sales and profit growth in 2025 as it continues to expand and renovate stores.
- Philip Morris Growth: Philip Morris International has pivoted successfully to next-gen products like Zyn and Iqos, achieving a 6.5% organic revenue growth to $40.6 billion, with a solid 3.7% dividend yield, positioning it well to weather market volatility amid the Iran conflict.
See More
Investors Heighten Concerns Over Economic Recession
- Recession Probability Fluctuations: According to Kalshi, the probability of a recession in 2025 exceeded 40% but dropped below 20% in February this year, only to rebound to 28% as of April 1, reflecting the impact of poor economic data and international tensions on market sentiment.
- GDP Revision Impact: The U.S. fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7% in March, increasing the risk of economic slowdown, and investors should be aware of the potential for two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which could be viewed as a shallow recession.
- Consumer Staples ETF Performance: The State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) has performed well amid market turmoil, rising 5% this year, with major holdings including Walmart (11.85%) and Coca-Cola (6.46%), demonstrating the resilience of consumer staples in uncertain economic conditions.
- Utilities ETF Stability: The Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) has also shown strong performance, up approximately 5% this year, with key holdings like NextEra Energy (11.95%) and Southern (6.38%), indicating that utility stocks' defensive characteristics are attracting investors amid recession fears.
See More
Analysis of High Dividend Stock Investment Strategy
- Philip Morris Growth: Despite declining global cigarette demand, Philip Morris International's smoke-free product volumes grew by 12.8% in 2025, demonstrating strong pricing power and unit economics in emerging markets, with expectations for significant increases in dividend per share in the future.
- Pfizer Dividend Advantage: Pfizer currently offers a dividend yield of 6.2%, and despite its stock price being down 55% from all-time highs, its investments in oncology and obesity drug markets may provide future growth potential, making it a stable income source.
- UnitedHealth Group Challenges: UnitedHealth Group has a dividend yield of 3.4%, and despite facing rising healthcare costs and cyberattack challenges, it is projected to rebound to $24 billion in operating earnings by 2026, supporting future dividend payments.
- Healthcare Spending Growth: As the U.S. population ages and healthcare costs inflate, healthcare spending is expected to continue rising, and while the insurance industry may not be popular, UnitedHealth Group's long-term growth potential remains noteworthy.
See More
Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing Stocks Decline
- Market Underperformance: On Wednesday, oil and gas refining and marketing stocks collectively fell by approximately 3.6%, indicating the pressure the sector is under amid increasing market volatility.
- Stock Drag: Gevo's share price dropped by about 10.8%, making it the worst performer in the industry, reflecting investor concerns regarding its future profitability.
- Aemetis Impact: Aemetis saw a decline of approximately 7.8% in its stock price, further exacerbating the overall downward trend in the sector, which may lead to decreased investor confidence in the company.
- Uncertain Industry Outlook: With overall market sentiment low, the future performance of the oil and gas refining and marketing sector faces uncertainty, potentially impacting the financing and expansion plans of related companies.
See More
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- FDA Drug Approval: Eli Lilly's once-daily GLP-1 pill Foundayo received FDA approval, leading to a 4% rise in shares, which will enhance the company's competitive edge in the obesity treatment market and drive future sales growth.
- Cybersecurity Incident Impact: Hasbro's shares fell over 4% due to a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized network access, with the company investigating the full impact and implementing protective measures, potentially increasing operational costs in the short term.
- Tobacco Product Delay: Philip Morris International's shares dropped more than 5% after the FDA delayed authorization for nicotine pouch sales, which may hinder the company's future market expansion plans, particularly among new user demographics.
- Semiconductor Buyback Plan: Intel announced a $14.2 billion buyback of a 49% stake in its Ireland Fab 34 joint venture, resulting in a 9% increase in shares, with funding sourced from cash on hand and approximately $6.5 billion in new debt, expected to strengthen its position in the global semiconductor market.
See More
FDA's Fast-Track Nicotine Pouch Approval Faces Resistance
- Resistance to Approval: The FDA's fast-track nicotine pouch approval plan is facing resistance from regulators and external critics due to insufficient scientific evidence, particularly concerns about addiction risks among youth, complicating the advancement of the initiative.
- Unclear Scientific Evidence: Although the FDA launched the pilot under pressure, it has not fully resolved the evidence balance between public health benefits for adult smokers and youth addiction risks, resulting in a slow approval process.
- Market Growth Potential: Nicotine pouches represent the fastest-growing tobacco category in the U.S., driving companies to seek quicker authorizations; however, advocacy groups warn that easier access could increase nicotine use among teenagers.
- Industry Participants: The FDA pilot aims to fast-track products from multiple companies, including Philip Morris, Altria, British American Tobacco's Reynolds American, and Turning Point Brands, highlighting the industry's urgent demand for rapid market access.
See More
