Pentagon Invests $4.5 Billion in Critical Minerals
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CENX?
Source: PRnewswire
- Surge in Government Investment: The Pentagon's $4.5 billion investment in critical minerals during the last months of 2025 is expected to lead to record levels of government support for strategic mineral projects in 2026, enhancing competitiveness for companies in defense and technology sectors.
- Mineral Discovery: GoldHaven Resources has confirmed a mineral system across 36,973 hectares at its Magno Project in British Columbia, showcasing potential for copper, gold, silver, lead, zinc, and tungsten, which could significantly enhance the company's resource development opportunities.
- High-Grade Mineralization Validation: Surface sampling at the Magno Zone revealed copper values up to 6,660 ppm, indicating the presence of high-grade copper mineralization within the rocks, further supporting the project's economic viability and future drilling plans.
- Multiple Projects Advancing: GoldHaven has completed diamond drilling at its Copeçal Gold Project in Brazil and confirmed high-grade copper at Three Guardsmen, now controlling 133,186 hectares across mining jurisdictions, demonstrating strong momentum in advancing multiple mining projects simultaneously.
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Analyst Views on CENX
Wall Street analysts forecast CENX stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 52.500
Low
42.00
Averages
55.67
High
64.00
Current: 52.500
Low
42.00
Averages
55.67
High
64.00
About CENX
Century Aluminum Company is a global producer of primary aluminum and operates aluminum reduction facilities, or smelters. The Company's annual production capacity is approximately 1,020,000 tons per year (tpy). It owns a carbon anode production facility located in the Netherlands (Vlissingen). Carbon anodes are consumed in the production of primary aluminum. Vlissingen supplies carbon anodes to its aluminum smelter in Grundartangi, Iceland. Each of its aluminum smelters in the United States produces anodes at on-site facilities. Through its Natur-Al product line, it provides low-carbon aluminum products. It operates three United States aluminum smelters, in Hawesville, Kentucky (Hawesville), Robards, Kentucky (Sebree) and Goose Creek, South Carolina (Mt. Holly), and one aluminum smelter in Grundartangi, Iceland (Grundartangi). The Grundartangi facility, is an aluminum reduction facility owned and operated by the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary, Nordural Grundartangi ehf.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Revenue Details: The company's Q4 revenue reached $633.7 million, a 0.4% year-over-year increase, yet it fell short of expectations by $27.93 million, reflecting weaker-than-expected market demand that may impact future production plans.
- Outlook Forecast: For Q1 2026, the company anticipates adjusted EBITDA to range between $215 million and $235 million, with improved metal pricing and regional premiums offset by temporary higher energy costs in the U.S. due to Winter Storm Fern.
- Market Positioning: Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs, Century Aluminum is viewed as having a favorable market position, with potential to enhance competitiveness through operational optimization and cost control in the future.
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- Stake Proportion Rise: Following the purchase, Impala's stake in Century Aluminum reached 21.17%, making it the fund's largest single investment, reflecting a bullish outlook on the aluminum sector amidst current market volatility.
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- Inflation Data Impact: The US January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, with the 10-year T-note yield falling to 4.05%, providing support for the market.
- Earnings Performance: Over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 76% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, demonstrating corporate resilience and restoring market confidence.
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See More
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- Earnings Performance: Century Aluminum reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.25, missing expectations by $0.04, indicating pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Details: The company's Q4 revenue reached $633.7 million, a 0.4% year-over-year increase, yet it fell short of expectations by $27.93 million, reflecting weaker-than-expected market demand that may impact future production plans.
- Outlook Forecast: For Q1 2026, the company anticipates adjusted EBITDA to range between $215 million and $235 million, with improved metal pricing and regional premiums offset by temporary higher energy costs in the U.S. due to Winter Storm Fern.
- Market Positioning: Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs, Century Aluminum is viewed as having a favorable market position, with potential to enhance competitiveness through operational optimization and cost control in the future.
See More
Supreme Court May Rule on Trump's Tariff Legality
- Consumer Impact of Tariffs: The current average effective tariff rate in the U.S. stands at 16.9%, the highest since 1932, with projections indicating that consumers will pay an additional $1,300 to $1,700 in 2026, significantly increasing household economic burdens.
- Potential Legal Changes: Should the Supreme Court rule IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, the consumer burden could be halved to between $600 and $800, providing some economic relief for families and influencing future spending patterns.
- Tariff Revenue Analysis: U.S. Customs and Border Protection collected approximately $133.5 billion in tariff revenue in fiscal year 2025, accounting for 60% of total tariff revenue during that period, highlighting the significant impact of tariff policies on government finances.
- Alternative Tariff Pathways: The Trump administration may resort to other legal frameworks to continue imposing tariffs, and economists note that even if IEEPA is overturned, this will limit potential consumer relief while maintaining high tariff burdens.
See More
Century Aluminum Set to Release Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: Century Aluminum (CENX) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 19th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.29, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 163.3%, which could positively influence the stock price.
- Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate for Q4 stands at $661.63 million, representing a 4.9% year-over-year growth, indicating the company's stable performance despite external challenges in the aluminum market.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Century Aluminum has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 88% of the time, showcasing its strong capability in managing profitability and market expectations.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced two upward and one downward revision, reflecting market uncertainty and differing views on the company's future performance.
See More
U.S. Stocks Close Higher as Software Stocks Recover
- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 index rose by 0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.18% on Friday, indicating a recovery after early losses, reflecting cautious optimism among investors regarding future economic prospects.
- Inflation Data Impact: The U.S. January Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase in seven months, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, thus providing support for the stock market and alleviating concerns over rate hikes.
- Strong Software Stock Performance: Software stocks like Crowdstrike Holdings and ServiceNow rose over 4% and 3%, respectively, lifting the broader market and indicating a rebound in investor confidence in tech stocks, particularly amid rapid advancements in AI technology.
- Metal Stocks Retreat: Reports of the Trump administration's plans to narrow tariffs on steel and aluminum products led to declines in metal companies, with Century Aluminum falling over 7%, reflecting the negative impact of policy changes on the sector.
See More
Impala Asset Management Increases Stake in Century Aluminum Company
- Share Increase: Impala Asset Management disclosed a purchase of 168,805 shares of Century Aluminum in Q4 2026, valued at approximately $5.27 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's market position.
- Stake Proportion Rise: Following the purchase, Impala's stake in Century Aluminum reached 21.17%, making it the fund's largest single investment, reflecting a bullish outlook on the aluminum sector amidst current market volatility.
- Strong Financial Performance: Century Aluminum's latest earnings report revealed net sales of $632.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $101.1 million, significantly up from the previous quarter, showcasing improvements in aluminum pricing and operational leverage.
- Outstanding Market Performance: As of February 12, 2026, Century Aluminum's stock price stood at $49.70, up 146.5% over the past year, greatly outperforming the S&P 500, highlighting its competitive edge and investment appeal in the industry.
See More
US Stocks Edge Up, Led by Chipmakers' Gains
- Chipmaker Rebound: Applied Materials (AMAT) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.38, surpassing the consensus of $2.21, leading to a 10% stock price increase that helped lift the broader market, indicating strong recovery potential in tech stocks.
- Inflation Data Impact: The US January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, with the 10-year T-note yield falling to 4.05%, providing support for the market.
- Earnings Performance: Over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 76% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, demonstrating corporate resilience and restoring market confidence.
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: Despite the overall market rise, concerns over AI persist, putting pressure on certain stocks, particularly in tech and logistics, reflecting investor caution regarding future economic prospects.
See More
