PayPal Shares Plunge 20% Amid Profit Warning
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Should l Buy PYPL?
Source: Fool
- Profit Warning: PayPal warned that its adjusted profits for 2026 could see a low-single-digit percentage decline, leading to a more than 20% drop in stock price by the close of trading, indicating severe market challenges ahead.
- Lackluster Growth: In the fourth quarter, revenue grew only 4% year-over-year to $8.7 billion, with active accounts increasing just 1% to 439 million and payment transactions rising 2% to 6.8 billion, failing to meet growth expectations and impacting investor confidence.
- Intensifying Competition: PayPal faces fierce competition from tech giants like Apple and Google, who pose formidable threats with their technical expertise and large user bases, further exacerbating market pressures on PayPal's business model.
- Executive Change: To tackle these challenges, PayPal's board decided to replace outgoing CEO Alex Chriss with Enrique Lores, former CEO of HP, who will take over on March 1, aiming to leverage his leadership experience to drive the company's transformation.
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Analyst Views on PYPL
Wall Street analysts forecast PYPL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PYPL is 72.86 USD with a low forecast of 51.00 USD and a high forecast of 100.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
29 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
19 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 39.900
Low
51.00
Averages
72.86
High
100.00
Current: 39.900
Low
51.00
Averages
72.86
High
100.00
About PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc. offers a technology platform. The Company’s products are designed to enable digital payments and simplify commerce experiences for consumers and merchants to make selling, shopping, and sending and receiving money simple, personalized, and secure, online or offline, including mobile. It provides consumers with a digital wallet that enables them to send payments to merchants securely using a variety of funding sources, which include a bank account, a PayPal or Venmo account balance, its consumer credit products, a credit card, a debit card, certain cryptocurrencies, or other stored value products. It operates a global, two-sided network at scale that connects consumers and merchants with 434 million active accounts across approximately 200 markets. Its brands include PayPal, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, PayPal Zettle, PayPal Honey, and Paidy. It offers financing products through the PayPal Working Capital (PPWC) and PayPal Business Loan (PPBL).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
PayPal Shares Plunge 20% After Weaker-Than-Expected Q4 Earnings Report
- Disappointing Earnings: PayPal's Q4 earnings report revealed weaker-than-expected results, causing shares to plummet 20% last Tuesday, with a continued decline of 22% by Friday's market close, indicating significant market concerns regarding future growth prospects.
- Executive Transition Impact: CEO Alex Chriss announced his resignation effective March, with former HP CEO Enrique Flores set to take over, a change that may influence the company's strategic direction and execution capabilities, adding to market uncertainty.
- Intensifying Competitive Challenges: PayPal faces increasing pressure from rivals, and analysts note that despite having 439 million active accounts, the company must effectively address execution challenges and maintain market share to restore growth momentum.
- Exploring Transformation Paths: Analysts suggest that PayPal should consider developing a low-fee, high-quality service ecosystem, similar to Nu Holdings, to attract users and enhance market competitiveness, although this transition will require time, vision, and significant investment.
See More
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- PayPal Oversold Status: PayPal's RSI is below 11, with shares plummeting over 24% this week, marking its worst weekly performance ever, primarily due to a weak 2026 profit outlook and CEO replacement, indicating market concerns about its future profitability.
- Coinbase Market Performance: Coinbase has an RSI of about 14, with shares down 25% this week linked to a plunge in Bitcoin prices; however, it regained some ground on Friday, and analysts remain optimistic, expecting the stock to double over the next year, reflecting confidence in digital assets.
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- Market Sentiment Volatility: Following significant market swings, many stocks have RSIs below 20, indicating widespread overselling, as investors may be looking for buying opportunities at lower prices, reflecting expectations for a future rebound.
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- Executive Change: PayPal's board has decided to fire CEO Alex Chriss and appoint HP's Enrique Lores, effective March 1, reflecting dissatisfaction with current performance and potentially undermining investor confidence.
- Disappointing Financials: For Q4 2025, PayPal's online branded checkout saw only a 1% year-over-year increase in transaction volume, indicating weak consumer spending during the holiday season, while transactions per active account fell by 5%, highlighting significant challenges in retail.
- Intensifying Competition: PayPal faces fierce competition from tech giants like Apple Pay and Google Pay, which dominate distribution through smartphone integration, exacerbating the pressure on PayPal's market position.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Although PayPal paid its first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share totaling $130 million in Q4 2024, management's low guidance for adjusted earnings per share in 2026 failed to boost shareholder confidence, raising questions about capital allocation decisions.
See More
Tech Sector Volatility Impacts Market Performance
- Walmart Stock Surge: Amid tech stock volatility, Walmart shares rose over 11%, pushing its market valuation above $1 trillion, reflecting investor preference for safer assets and enhancing the company's stability in an uncertain market.
- PayPal's Poor Performance: PayPal shares tumbled more than 20% on Tuesday and are down over 23% for the week after its fourth-quarter earnings and revenue missed analyst expectations, raising concerns about its execution and market share.
- Novo Nordisk Faces Challenges: Novo Nordisk's stock sank over 14% on Tuesday and is down over 21% for the week due to a sales warning indicating pricing pressures in the U.S. market, impacting the performance of its Wegovy product.
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See More
Analyzing the Competitive Outlook of PayPal and Block
- PayPal's New Initiatives: PayPal plans to launch PayPal World in 2025, allowing users to pay global merchants in local currencies, which is expected to enhance user experience and strengthen market competitiveness.
- AI and Stablecoin Integration: By leveraging AI agents and the stablecoin PYUSD (offering a 4% annual yield), PayPal aims to attract more users and increase transaction volumes, potentially aiding in revenue recovery.
- Block's Growth Potential: Block's Cash App reported $1.62 billion in gross profit in Q3 2025, a 24% year-over-year increase, indicating strong growth potential as it transforms into a comprehensive financial platform.
- Cryptocurrency Strategy: Block launched Square Bitcoin, which automatically converts credit card sales into Bitcoin, and holds approximately 8,800 BTC worth nearly $770 million, further solidifying its position in the cryptocurrency market.
See More
PayPal Shares Plunge 20% After Weaker-Than-Expected Q4 Earnings Report
- Disappointing Earnings: PayPal's Q4 earnings report revealed weaker-than-expected results, causing shares to plummet 20% last Tuesday, with a continued decline of 22% by Friday's market close, indicating significant market concerns regarding future growth prospects.
- Executive Transition Impact: CEO Alex Chriss announced his resignation effective March, with former HP CEO Enrique Flores set to take over, a change that may influence the company's strategic direction and execution capabilities, adding to market uncertainty.
- Intensifying Competitive Challenges: PayPal faces increasing pressure from rivals, and analysts note that despite having 439 million active accounts, the company must effectively address execution challenges and maintain market share to restore growth momentum.
- Exploring Transformation Paths: Analysts suggest that PayPal should consider developing a low-fee, high-quality service ecosystem, similar to Nu Holdings, to attract users and enhance market competitiveness, although this transition will require time, vision, and significant investment.
See More
Worst Performing Large-Cap Stocks Last Week
- Stellantis Loss Warning: Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) plummeted 26.24% this week after the company warned of a full-year net loss, significantly eroding investor confidence and potentially impacting future financing capabilities.
- Gartner Earnings Miss: Gartner (NYSE:IT) fell 25.41% this week following the release of its fourth-quarter financial results and a downward revision of its FY26 guidance, with analysts' pessimistic outlook likely to exert further pressure on the stock.
- Reddit Stock Decline: Reddit (NYSE:RDDT) dropped 23.10% this week as multiple analysts lowered their price forecasts, reflecting market concerns over its profitability and potentially hindering its financing and expansion plans.
- Analyst Downgrades: Several analysts adjusted their price targets downward for these companies, indicating a widespread bearish sentiment regarding their future performance, which may lead investors to reassess their portfolios.
See More
Market Rebound Signals Emerge as PayPal and Others Become Oversold
- PayPal Oversold Status: PayPal's RSI is below 11, with shares plummeting over 24% this week, marking its worst weekly performance ever, primarily due to a weak 2026 profit outlook and CEO replacement, indicating market concerns about its future profitability.
- Coinbase Market Performance: Coinbase has an RSI of about 14, with shares down 25% this week linked to a plunge in Bitcoin prices; however, it regained some ground on Friday, and analysts remain optimistic, expecting the stock to double over the next year, reflecting confidence in digital assets.
- KKR Oversold Risk: KKR's RSI is below 20, with shares tracking down more than 13% this week amid fears that AI could disrupt the application software industry, yet most analysts maintain a buy rating, projecting a 53% increase in stock price over the coming year, showcasing investor confidence in its long-term potential.
- Market Sentiment Volatility: Following significant market swings, many stocks have RSIs below 20, indicating widespread overselling, as investors may be looking for buying opportunities at lower prices, reflecting expectations for a future rebound.
See More
PayPal CEO Change Amidst Disappointing Earnings
- Executive Change: PayPal's board has decided to fire CEO Alex Chriss and appoint HP's Enrique Lores, effective March 1, reflecting dissatisfaction with current performance and potentially undermining investor confidence.
- Disappointing Financials: For Q4 2025, PayPal's online branded checkout saw only a 1% year-over-year increase in transaction volume, indicating weak consumer spending during the holiday season, while transactions per active account fell by 5%, highlighting significant challenges in retail.
- Intensifying Competition: PayPal faces fierce competition from tech giants like Apple Pay and Google Pay, which dominate distribution through smartphone integration, exacerbating the pressure on PayPal's market position.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Although PayPal paid its first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share totaling $130 million in Q4 2024, management's low guidance for adjusted earnings per share in 2026 failed to boost shareholder confidence, raising questions about capital allocation decisions.
See More
Tech Sector Volatility Impacts Market Performance
- Walmart Stock Surge: Amid tech stock volatility, Walmart shares rose over 11%, pushing its market valuation above $1 trillion, reflecting investor preference for safer assets and enhancing the company's stability in an uncertain market.
- PayPal's Poor Performance: PayPal shares tumbled more than 20% on Tuesday and are down over 23% for the week after its fourth-quarter earnings and revenue missed analyst expectations, raising concerns about its execution and market share.
- Novo Nordisk Faces Challenges: Novo Nordisk's stock sank over 14% on Tuesday and is down over 21% for the week due to a sales warning indicating pricing pressures in the U.S. market, impacting the performance of its Wegovy product.
- Silicon Labs Acquisition: Silicon Laboratories surged over 48% on Wednesday and is set to end the week around 44% higher following news of its acquisition by Texas Instruments for approximately $231 per share in an all-cash deal, indicating strong market recognition of its growth potential.
See More
Analyzing the Competitive Outlook of PayPal and Block
- PayPal's New Initiatives: PayPal plans to launch PayPal World in 2025, allowing users to pay global merchants in local currencies, which is expected to enhance user experience and strengthen market competitiveness.
- AI and Stablecoin Integration: By leveraging AI agents and the stablecoin PYUSD (offering a 4% annual yield), PayPal aims to attract more users and increase transaction volumes, potentially aiding in revenue recovery.
- Block's Growth Potential: Block's Cash App reported $1.62 billion in gross profit in Q3 2025, a 24% year-over-year increase, indicating strong growth potential as it transforms into a comprehensive financial platform.
- Cryptocurrency Strategy: Block launched Square Bitcoin, which automatically converts credit card sales into Bitcoin, and holds approximately 8,800 BTC worth nearly $770 million, further solidifying its position in the cryptocurrency market.
See More
