Par Pacific Expects Refining Business to Benefit from Low Oil Prices in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 26 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Market Performance Comparison: Over the past year, Par Pacific's stock surged by 119.3%, significantly outpacing Exxon Mobil's 16.1% gain, indicating strong performance and market appeal in the refining sector.
- Oil Price Forecast Impact: The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude will drop to $51.42 per barrel in 2026, benefiting the refining industry, particularly Par Pacific, which relies on low oil prices for processing.
- Diversified Crude Sources: Par Pacific's strategy of sourcing crude from various origins, including U.S. inland oil fields and Canadian heavy oil, reduces reliance on a single source, thereby maintaining a competitive edge and enhancing profitability amid price fluctuations.
- Valuation Discrepancy: While Exxon Mobil trades at a 7.74x enterprise value to EBITDA ratio, above the industry average of 4.46x, Par Pacific offers a different risk-reward profile that appeals to risk-tolerant investors.
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Analyst Views on PARR
Wall Street analysts forecast PARR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PARR is 45.71 USD with a low forecast of 39.00 USD and a high forecast of 57.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 36.470
Low
39.00
Averages
45.71
High
57.00
Current: 36.470
Low
39.00
Averages
45.71
High
57.00
About PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company, which provides both renewable and conventional fuels to the western United States. The Company owns and operates 219,000 barrels per day of combined refining capacity across three locations and an energy infrastructure network, including 13 million barrels of storage, and marine, rail, rack and pipeline assets. The Company’s Refining segment owns and operates four refineries with total operating crude oil throughput capacity of 219 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd). Retail segment operates fuel retail outlets in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho. It operates convenience stores and fuel retail sites under Hele and nomnom brands, 76 branded fuel retail sites and other sites operated by third parties that sell gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise, such as soft drinks, prepared foods, and other sundries. The Logistics segment operates a multi-modal logistics network spanning the Pacific, the Northwest, and the Rocky Mountain regions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Par Pacific Expects Refining Business to Benefit from Low Oil Prices in 2026
- Market Performance Comparison: Over the past year, Par Pacific's stock surged by 119.3%, significantly outpacing Exxon Mobil's 16.1% gain, indicating strong performance and market appeal in the refining sector.
- Oil Price Forecast Impact: The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude will drop to $51.42 per barrel in 2026, benefiting the refining industry, particularly Par Pacific, which relies on low oil prices for processing.
- Diversified Crude Sources: Par Pacific's strategy of sourcing crude from various origins, including U.S. inland oil fields and Canadian heavy oil, reduces reliance on a single source, thereby maintaining a competitive edge and enhancing profitability amid price fluctuations.
- Valuation Discrepancy: While Exxon Mobil trades at a 7.74x enterprise value to EBITDA ratio, above the industry average of 4.46x, Par Pacific offers a different risk-reward profile that appeals to risk-tolerant investors.
Continue Reading