Oxford Economics: AI Job Cuts Narrative May Be Overstated, 55,000 Cuts in 2025
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 12 2026
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Source: seekingalpha
- AI Job Cut Figures: According to Oxford Economics, nearly 55,000 U.S. job cuts were attributed to AI in the first 11 months of 2025, accounting for 75% of all reported AI-related layoffs, yet this represents only 4.5% of total job losses during the same period, highlighting the relative limitation of AI layoffs in the broader employment context.
- Impact of Economic Factors: While AI-related layoffs attract significant media attention, job losses due to market and economic conditions exceeded 245,000, indicating that traditional economic factors have a more pronounced impact on the labor market; Oxford Economics expresses skepticism about the narrative surrounding AI layoffs, suggesting it may be overstated.
- Graduate Unemployment Rates: The analysis notes that although the unemployment rate for recent graduates in the U.S. rose from 3.9% in November 2022 to 5.5% in March 2025, this pattern aligns with normal cyclical factors rather than structural changes driven by AI, indicating limited impact of AI on graduate employment.
- Stagnation in Productivity Growth: Oxford Economics argues that if AI were genuinely replacing workers at scale, productivity growth should be accelerating; however, the current deceleration in productivity growth aligns more with cyclical patterns, leading to the expectation that AI will not significantly raise unemployment rates in the U.S. or elsewhere over the next year or two.
Analyst Views on ARTY
Wall Street analysts forecast ARTY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARTY is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
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About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
