Nvidia Sells ARM Stake, Market Reacts Positively
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 18 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ARM?
Source: CNBC
- Nvidia Reduces ARM Stake: Nvidia gradually reduced its stake in ARM by the end of 2024, holding 1.1 million shares valued at $155.8 million; despite the sell-off, Nvidia's 20-year licensing agreement with ARM remains intact, indicating a long-term partnership.
- ARM Earnings Beat Expectations: ARM reported a 26% year-on-year increase in sales to $1.24 billion in its latest earnings report, surpassing analyst expectations and demonstrating strong momentum in AI projects, although its stock fell in after-hours trading, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding future guidance.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following its Nasdaq debut, ARM's market cap is approximately $135 billion, and Nvidia's stake reduction did not dampen market confidence, as ARM shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading, indicating investor recognition of its long-term growth potential.
- Morgan Stanley Optimistic: Morgan Stanley has an “overweight” rating on ARM with a price target of $135, representing a premium of over 6% from Tuesday's closing price, reflecting a positive outlook on ARM's future performance, particularly in ongoing investments in AI.
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Analyst Views on ARM
Wall Street analysts forecast ARM stock price to fall
24 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 213.310
Low
120.00
Averages
160.58
High
201.00
Current: 213.310
Low
120.00
Averages
160.58
High
201.00
About ARM
Arm Holdings plc is a United Kingdom-based company. The Company is engaged in the design of central processing units (CPUs) and compute platforms for semiconductor chips. It develops and licenses CPU products and related technology. Its cloud and data center solutions include Arm AGI CPU and Arm Neoverse Compute Subsystems. The Arm Agentic Generalized Infrastructure (AGI) CPU is a production-ready system on a chip (SoC) for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, delivering compute at scale. The Arm Neoverse Compute Subsystems (CSS) are pre-validated, performance-optimized compute platforms designed to accelerate infrastructure silicon development. The Company's primary markets include smartphone applications, processors and other chips used in mobile phones, consumer electronics, networking equipment, cloud and data center servers, automotive applications, Internet of Things (loT) and other embedded computing devices.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Strong Earnings Report: Arm Holdings exceeded analyst expectations in its latest earnings report, with both revenue and net income surpassing forecasts, while data center royalty revenue more than doubled year-over-year, indicating robust market demand.
- Surging Demand: Despite management's concerns about supply chain constraints limiting the fulfillment of strong demand for its new AGI CPU, the company anticipates revenue exceeding $2 billion over the next two fiscal years, significantly above the initial $1 billion forecast, reflecting high market recognition of its products.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Arm forecasts annual revenue of $15 billion from CPUs by 2031, with total revenue reaching $25 billion, as CEO predicts market share will surpass competitors Intel and AMD, showcasing its competitive edge in energy efficiency.
- Capital Expenditure Drivers: Arm's customers, including hyperscalers, are projected to spend $700 billion in capital expenditures over the next five years, which will further drive Arm's market share growth and revenue increase, although revenue from the AGI CPU won't materialize until Q4 2027.
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- Surging Demand: Arm's new AGI CPU has initial demand exceeding twice the expected amount, with projected revenue over the next two fiscal years surpassing $2 billion, indicating strong market interest despite potential delivery challenges due to supply chain constraints.
- Supply Chain Challenges: Arm faces significant supply chain bottlenecks, particularly wafer capacity at TSMC, which is essentially sold out, and a shortage of memory chips that could hinder collaborations with key partners like Meta and OpenAI.
- Long-Term Revenue Outlook: Arm forecasts annual revenue from its CPU to reach $15 billion by 2031, and if it captures a majority of the $100 billion total addressable market, actual revenue could significantly exceed this target, highlighting its market potential.
- Market Share Competition: CEO Rene Haas predicts that by the end of the decade, Arm will hold the largest market share by CPU type, leveraging its power efficiency advantage to gain traction in data centers and robotics, despite competition from Intel and AMD.
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- Nasdaq Hits Record High: The Nasdaq 100 index surged 1.32% to reach a new record high, primarily driven by chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks, indicating strong market confidence in technology stocks that may attract further investor interest in the tech sector.
- Strong Employment Data: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April, exceeding expectations of 65,000, while March figures were revised up to 185,000, demonstrating resilience in the labor market that could lead the Fed to maintain interest rates in upcoming policy meetings.
- Corporate Earnings Support Market: So far, 84% of the 425 S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, with Q1 earnings projected to climb 12% year-over-year, providing robust support for the stock market and reflecting the potential for economic recovery.
- Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices: Iran's seizure of an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a slight increase in WTI crude oil prices, heightening concerns over future oil price volatility and potentially affecting the stability of global energy supply chains.
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- Surge in Agentic AI: Meta and Google are developing agentic AI tools, with Meta focusing on a personalized assistant for daily tasks and Google launching a 24/7 personal agent, indicating a strategic emphasis on enhancing user experience that could significantly boost their advertising and e-commerce value drivers.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Following the success of OpenClaw, the development of AI agents has become a core strategy for Big Tech, as analysts note that these tools can not only increase user engagement but also enhance customer stickiness through continuous learning and contextual understanding, driving long-term revenue growth.
- Security and Governance Challenges: Despite the immense potential of AI agents, issues surrounding security and governance remain unresolved, highlighted by a viral incident where a Meta employee reported OpenClaw deleting numerous emails, raising trust concerns and indicating that enterprises are not yet fully prepared to manage AI agent risks effectively, which could hinder widespread adoption.
- Future Development Trends: Analysts predict that AI agents will be a central theme in future tech developments, facilitating a shift from search to action, with escalating competition among companies to develop profitable AI tools, reflecting the substantial market demand for agentic solutions.
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- Market Weakness: On Thursday, the S&P 500 Index fell by 0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.63%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 0.12%, reflecting investor skepticism regarding a potential US-Iran peace deal, which led to a reversal of early gains and impacted market confidence.
- Economic Data Support: Despite the market decline, initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 200,000, below the expected 205,000, indicating resilience in the labor market, while Q1 nonfarm productivity increased by 0.8%, surpassing the 0.6% forecast, providing some support to the market.
- Earnings Report Impact: As of Thursday, 84% of the 425 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q1 earnings projected to rise by 12% year-over-year, although growth outside the tech sector is only expected to be around 3%, indicating a divergence that may influence investor allocation strategies.
- Oil Price Recovery: WTI crude oil prices rebounded after a 4% decline on Thursday, as the market focused on the potential resumption of US military operations to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to have ongoing implications for global oil prices and related stocks.
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- Oil Price Recovery: West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rebounded above $97 per barrel after a morning dip, reflecting cautious optimism about future demand, which could impact related energy stocks' performance.
- Divergent Tech Stock Performance: As AI-related stocks pull back, cybersecurity software stocks like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks surged, crossing $500 and $190 respectively for the first time, indicating increased market confidence in their business models and potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Boeing Stock Rise: Boeing's shares rose as CEO Kelly Ortberg is set to accompany President Trump on his trip to China, with the market anticipating a major order of up to 500 planes, although skepticism remains regarding the order's realization.
- Employment Data Expectations: Economists forecast a 65,000 increase in April's nonfarm payrolls with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8%, providing crucial economic health indicators that could influence investor confidence.
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