Nvidia Earnings Preview: Market Expects Acceleration in Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Earnings Expectations: Nvidia is projected to report Q4 2026 sales of $65.56 billion, a 66.7% year-over-year increase, with EPS expected at $1.52, reflecting the company's strong performance in the AI sector that could continue to drive its stock price.
- Market Reaction: Despite widespread analyst expectations for Nvidia to exceed market forecasts, investor concerns about future growth persist, particularly regarding the return on AI investments, which could lead to stock price volatility.
- Customer Demand: Nvidia's multi-year deal with Meta indicates strong demand, but it also highlights increasing customer leverage, which may impact future profit margins and market share.
- China Market Risk: Restrictions imposed by Chinese customs on Nvidia's H200 chips introduce uncertainty into the demand curve, potentially affecting future sales and growth expectations.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 189.820
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 189.820
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nvidia's Q4 Earnings Preview: Key Observations
- Market Weight Analysis: Nvidia stock represents over 7% of the S&P 500, making it a significant weight in the index, which could influence overall market performance.
- Earnings Momentum Observation: Despite accelerating earnings trends, Nvidia's stock performance has not necessarily followed suit, as past strong earnings did not always lead to stock price increases, necessitating close attention to Thursday's trading performance.
- Analyst Rating Status: Currently, Nvidia has 77 buy ratings, 5 hold ratings, and 1 sell rating, indicating high market expectations; any disappointment in earnings could lead to potential downgrades.
- Technical Level Analysis: Nvidia's stock has risen 35.5% over the past 52 weeks but only 1.8% year-to-date, with a critical support level at $170; a break above $195 could trigger a larger market rally.
See More
Nvidia's AI Chip Market Outlook Analysis
- Market Dominance: Nvidia continues to dominate the AI data center market with its GPU chips, particularly with the newly launched Rubin platform, which is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the rapidly evolving AI sector.
- Shift to Inference Computing: Designed with inference in mind, Rubin performs inference computing at 10% of the cost per million tokens compared to the existing Blackwell GB200 NVL72, significantly improving efficiency and meeting AI hyperscalers' demand for cost-effectiveness.
- Sales Growth Expectations: Analysts anticipate Nvidia's sales will grow from $187 billion to $327 billion, and then reach $419 billion in the following fiscal year, indicating strong growth potential, although risks remain due to its concentrated customer base.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: While Nvidia holds a leading position in the AI data center chip market, it faces challenges from competitors like Broadcom, prompting investors to monitor the company's updates on market outlook in the upcoming earnings report to assess the timing for investment.
See More
DeepSeek's New AI Model May Violate Export Controls
- Model Training Controversy: DeepSeek's upcoming AI model, expected to launch next week, is trained on Nvidia's latest Blackwell chips, potentially violating U.S. export controls, which could impact its compliance and reputation in international markets.
- Technology Acquisition Concerns: U.S. officials suggest that DeepSeek may remove technical indicators to obscure its use of U.S. AI chips, raising questions about its technology sourcing and potentially leading to stricter regulatory measures.
- Tensions in U.S.-China Relations: The Chinese embassy in Washington opposes the excessive use of export controls by the U.S., emphasizing that such actions could exacerbate technological and trade frictions between the two countries, affecting economic cooperation.
- Market Competition Impact: The model's training relies on technologies from U.S. AI companies, which may provide DeepSeek with an unfair competitive advantage in the global market, intensifying competition pressures against Nvidia and AMD.
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- Sandisk's Revival: Sandisk (SNDK), after spinning off from Western Digital in 2025, achieved second-quarter revenue of $3.02 billion, a 61% increase, with net income reaching $803 million, a staggering 672% jump, highlighting robust market potential in its data center segment, which grew 64%.
- Nebius Group's Transformation: Nebius Group (NBIS) reported fourth-quarter revenue of $227.7 million, up 547% year-over-year, despite an adjusted net loss of $173 million; however, it projects annual run rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion for 2026, showcasing significant growth potential.
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- Market Overreaction: Despite a 32% decline in software stocks, analysts view Microsoft and Cloudflare as undervalued, with Microsoft's target price at $600 implying a 52% upside, indicating a market underestimation of its AI integration capabilities.
- Strong Financial Performance: Microsoft reported a 17% revenue increase to $81 billion in the December quarter, with non-GAAP net income rising 24% to $4.14 per share, and while Azure revenue narrowly missed estimates, investors remain optimistic about its long-term growth potential.
- Cloudflare's Growth Momentum: Cloudflare's fourth-quarter revenue grew 33% to $614 million, with a 39% increase in paying customers and a net revenue retention rate of 120%, showcasing its strong market position and customer loyalty amid the proliferation of AI agents.
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- Significant Reductions: Billionaire Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management sold 667,405 shares of Nvidia and 253,768 shares of Meta in Q4, indicating a waning confidence in these stocks, particularly as his Meta stake has decreased by 53% since March 2023.
- Emerging Top Holding: Laffont's purchase of 556,988 shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) in Q4 positions it as his new top holding, reflecting strong confidence in AI demand, especially amidst surging needs for high-bandwidth memory and high-performance GPUs.
- Market Reaction: Despite Nvidia and Meta's stock prices soaring approximately 1,200% and 445% respectively since the start of 2023, Laffont's selling may suggest concerns over a potential AI bubble, particularly given historical instances of overvaluation in tech trends.
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See More
Nvidia's Q4 Earnings Preview: Key Observations
- Market Weight Analysis: Nvidia stock represents over 7% of the S&P 500, making it a significant weight in the index, which could influence overall market performance.
- Earnings Momentum Observation: Despite accelerating earnings trends, Nvidia's stock performance has not necessarily followed suit, as past strong earnings did not always lead to stock price increases, necessitating close attention to Thursday's trading performance.
- Analyst Rating Status: Currently, Nvidia has 77 buy ratings, 5 hold ratings, and 1 sell rating, indicating high market expectations; any disappointment in earnings could lead to potential downgrades.
- Technical Level Analysis: Nvidia's stock has risen 35.5% over the past 52 weeks but only 1.8% year-to-date, with a critical support level at $170; a break above $195 could trigger a larger market rally.
See More
Nvidia's AI Chip Market Outlook Analysis
- Market Dominance: Nvidia continues to dominate the AI data center market with its GPU chips, particularly with the newly launched Rubin platform, which is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the rapidly evolving AI sector.
- Shift to Inference Computing: Designed with inference in mind, Rubin performs inference computing at 10% of the cost per million tokens compared to the existing Blackwell GB200 NVL72, significantly improving efficiency and meeting AI hyperscalers' demand for cost-effectiveness.
- Sales Growth Expectations: Analysts anticipate Nvidia's sales will grow from $187 billion to $327 billion, and then reach $419 billion in the following fiscal year, indicating strong growth potential, although risks remain due to its concentrated customer base.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: While Nvidia holds a leading position in the AI data center chip market, it faces challenges from competitors like Broadcom, prompting investors to monitor the company's updates on market outlook in the upcoming earnings report to assess the timing for investment.
See More
DeepSeek's New AI Model May Violate Export Controls
- Model Training Controversy: DeepSeek's upcoming AI model, expected to launch next week, is trained on Nvidia's latest Blackwell chips, potentially violating U.S. export controls, which could impact its compliance and reputation in international markets.
- Technology Acquisition Concerns: U.S. officials suggest that DeepSeek may remove technical indicators to obscure its use of U.S. AI chips, raising questions about its technology sourcing and potentially leading to stricter regulatory measures.
- Tensions in U.S.-China Relations: The Chinese embassy in Washington opposes the excessive use of export controls by the U.S., emphasizing that such actions could exacerbate technological and trade frictions between the two countries, affecting economic cooperation.
- Market Competition Impact: The model's training relies on technologies from U.S. AI companies, which may provide DeepSeek with an unfair competitive advantage in the global market, intensifying competition pressures against Nvidia and AMD.
See More
Strategies for Building a $1 Million Retirement Portfolio
- Portfolio Building Importance: Financial planners recommend that retirees should prepare to live on 80% of their pre-retirement income, necessitating over $1 million in 401(k) or IRA accounts to manage ongoing expenses and maintain lifestyle.
- Broadcom's Growth Potential: Broadcom (AVGO) reported fourth-quarter revenue of $18.01 billion, a 28% increase year-over-year, with net income soaring to $8.51 billion, up 97%, driven by a 74% rise in AI semiconductor revenue, indicating strong market demand.
- Sandisk's Revival: Sandisk (SNDK), after spinning off from Western Digital in 2025, achieved second-quarter revenue of $3.02 billion, a 61% increase, with net income reaching $803 million, a staggering 672% jump, highlighting robust market potential in its data center segment, which grew 64%.
- Nebius Group's Transformation: Nebius Group (NBIS) reported fourth-quarter revenue of $227.7 million, up 547% year-over-year, despite an adjusted net loss of $173 million; however, it projects annual run rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion for 2026, showcasing significant growth potential.
See More
Software Stocks Enter Bear Market; Microsoft and Cloudflare Seen as Undervalued
- Market Overreaction: Despite a 32% decline in software stocks, analysts view Microsoft and Cloudflare as undervalued, with Microsoft's target price at $600 implying a 52% upside, indicating a market underestimation of its AI integration capabilities.
- Strong Financial Performance: Microsoft reported a 17% revenue increase to $81 billion in the December quarter, with non-GAAP net income rising 24% to $4.14 per share, and while Azure revenue narrowly missed estimates, investors remain optimistic about its long-term growth potential.
- Cloudflare's Growth Momentum: Cloudflare's fourth-quarter revenue grew 33% to $614 million, with a 39% increase in paying customers and a net revenue retention rate of 120%, showcasing its strong market position and customer loyalty amid the proliferation of AI agents.
- AI's Impact on Industry Outlook: As AI agents rise, investor concerns about demand and profit margins in the software industry have emerged; however, experts believe many software companies are effectively integrating AI technology, and the market sell-off presents a buying opportunity for patient investors.
See More
Coatue Management Reduces Stakes in Nvidia and Meta
- Significant Reductions: Billionaire Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management sold 667,405 shares of Nvidia and 253,768 shares of Meta in Q4, indicating a waning confidence in these stocks, particularly as his Meta stake has decreased by 53% since March 2023.
- Emerging Top Holding: Laffont's purchase of 556,988 shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) in Q4 positions it as his new top holding, reflecting strong confidence in AI demand, especially amidst surging needs for high-bandwidth memory and high-performance GPUs.
- Market Reaction: Despite Nvidia and Meta's stock prices soaring approximately 1,200% and 445% respectively since the start of 2023, Laffont's selling may suggest concerns over a potential AI bubble, particularly given historical instances of overvaluation in tech trends.
- Valuation Appeal: With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21, TSMC appears reasonably priced if it meets the projected 31% sales growth, and its diversified product lines provide a stable cash flow for the company.
See More
