NOG Updates FY26 Production Guidance to 143,000-148,000
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Prior view was 68,000-72,000. Sees FY26 Annual Production (2-stream, Boe/day) 143,000-148,000 vs. prior 139,000- 143,000. Sees FY26 Net Wells Turned-in-Line 74-76 vs. prior 68-72. NOG is providing updated company guidance proforma for the light-oil Duvernay acquisition in line with the "high-end" of the former low activity range.
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Analyst Views on NOG
Wall Street analysts forecast NOG stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 22.340
Low
25.00
Averages
28.33
High
33.00
Current: 22.340
Low
25.00
Averages
28.33
High
33.00
About NOG
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is a real asset company that focuses on acquiring and investing in non-operated minority working and mineral interests in the hydrocarbon producing basins. The Company is engaged as a non-operator in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States, primarily in the Williston Basin, the Permian Basin, the Appalachian Basin and the Uinta Basin. Its portfolio comprises 300,000 acres of low-breakeven land with over 10,000 wells. Diversified by basin and across commodity type, its wells are operated by over 100 public and private operators. It engages in oil and natural gas exploration and production by participating on a proportionate basis alongside third-party interests in wells drilled and completed in spacing units that include its acreage. In addition, it acquires wellbore-only working interests in wells in which it does not hold the underlying leasehold interests from third parties.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
NOG Acquires Canadian Light Oil Assets for CA$350 Million
- Strategic Acquisition: NOG has agreed to acquire a 25% non-operated interest in light oil assets in the Duvernay Shale for CA$350 million (~US$259 million), significantly enhancing its resource allocation capabilities in the North American market.
- Production Potential: The acquired assets are expected to yield approximately 4,000 Boe per day by 2027, with 80% being light oil, thereby boosting NOG's overall production capacity and market competitiveness.
- Financial Impact: The initial purchase price will be funded with CA$113 million (~US$83.5 million) in NOG common stock and cash, which is anticipated to positively affect the company's financial metrics, enhancing earnings per share and free cash flow.
- Long-term Development Agreement: NOG has entered into a long-term Joint Development Agreement with the seller, ensuring multi-year drilling commitments that further solidify its market position in high-quality, low-cost oil and gas resources.
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Northern Oil and Gas Acquires 25% Interest in Alberta Oil Properties
- Acquisition Overview: Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) announced an agreement to acquire a 25% interest in oil properties in Alberta's Duvernay shale basin from Parallax Energy Operating for C$350 million (approximately US$259 million) in cash and stock, significantly enhancing its asset portfolio.
- Production Capacity Boost: The acquired assets include approximately 4,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 75,000 acres of land, which are expected to provide strong support for the company's future production growth and further solidify its market position in the oil and gas industry.
- Long-term Collaboration Agreement: NOG and Parallax will enter into a long-term joint development agreement with multi-year drilling commitments, which will not only enhance resource development efficiency but also promote synergies in technology and market strategies between the two companies.
- Future Production Guidance: NOG updated its FY 2026 production guidance, projecting total production to reach 143,000 to 148,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day post-acquisition, with oil production at 71,500 to 73,500 barrels per day, while maintaining capital spending at C$850 million to C$900 million, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
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- Hedging Strategy Analysis: Northern Oil has approximately 70% of its oil production hedged for FY 2026 at around $70/bbl, which creates near-term headwinds in the current oil price environment compared to less-hedged peers, impacting the company's competitive position.
- Optimistic Production Guidance: Despite the adverse effects of the hedging strategy, analysts believe Northern Oil will exceed its production guidance, with management guiding to the top of the low-end activity scenario while analysts expect oil volumes to approach the high-activity scenario, indicating potential for improved operations.
- Long-Term Outlook: Analysts note that while the current hedge position puts Northern Oil at a disadvantage in a robust oil environment, the combination of increasing industry activity and a smaller hedge profile next year is expected to create a more favorable outlook for the company, reflecting optimism about future market conditions.
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- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 7.71% makes this dividend attractive to investors seeking stable returns, further solidifying the company's appeal in the capital markets.
- Shareholder Record Date: The dividend will be payable on July 31, with a record date of June 29 and an ex-dividend date also on June 29, ensuring shareholders receive their payouts promptly and enhancing shareholder confidence.
- Financial Performance Overview: Despite NOG reporting a GAAP EPS of -$5.31, missing expectations by $5.99, and revenue of $5.02 million falling short by $501.98 million, the company continues to uphold its dividend payments, demonstrating financial resilience.
See More
Northern Oil and Gas Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Record Deal Activity: Northern Oil and Gas achieved a record 41 transactions in Q1 2026, adding over 5,100 net acres and 6 net wells, demonstrating strong market performance under controlled capital, which is expected to enhance future production capacity and market share.
- Strong Production Performance: The average daily production exceeded 148,000 BOE per day in Q1, marking a 6% sequential increase and setting a company record, indicating robust operational performance in the Appalachia region that effectively addresses market volatility challenges.
- Capital Expenditure and Liquidity: Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $270 million, with approximately $227 million allocated to organic development, while the nearly $230 million equity offering bolstered liquidity, providing over $1.2 billion available for future investments, ensuring flexibility.
- Market Outlook Uncertainty: Despite strong performance in Q1, management refrained from updating 2026 guidance due to significant commodity price volatility, anticipating that natural gas realizations in the Permian will remain weak for the next few quarters until infrastructure projects come online.
See More
NOG Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
NOG Acquires Canadian Light Oil Assets for CA$350 Million
- Strategic Acquisition: NOG has agreed to acquire a 25% non-operated interest in light oil assets in the Duvernay Shale for CA$350 million (~US$259 million), significantly enhancing its resource allocation capabilities in the North American market.
- Production Potential: The acquired assets are expected to yield approximately 4,000 Boe per day by 2027, with 80% being light oil, thereby boosting NOG's overall production capacity and market competitiveness.
- Financial Impact: The initial purchase price will be funded with CA$113 million (~US$83.5 million) in NOG common stock and cash, which is anticipated to positively affect the company's financial metrics, enhancing earnings per share and free cash flow.
- Long-term Development Agreement: NOG has entered into a long-term Joint Development Agreement with the seller, ensuring multi-year drilling commitments that further solidify its market position in high-quality, low-cost oil and gas resources.
See More
Northern Oil and Gas Acquires 25% Interest in Alberta Oil Properties
- Acquisition Overview: Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) announced an agreement to acquire a 25% interest in oil properties in Alberta's Duvernay shale basin from Parallax Energy Operating for C$350 million (approximately US$259 million) in cash and stock, significantly enhancing its asset portfolio.
- Production Capacity Boost: The acquired assets include approximately 4,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 75,000 acres of land, which are expected to provide strong support for the company's future production growth and further solidify its market position in the oil and gas industry.
- Long-term Collaboration Agreement: NOG and Parallax will enter into a long-term joint development agreement with multi-year drilling commitments, which will not only enhance resource development efficiency but also promote synergies in technology and market strategies between the two companies.
- Future Production Guidance: NOG updated its FY 2026 production guidance, projecting total production to reach 143,000 to 148,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day post-acquisition, with oil production at 71,500 to 73,500 barrels per day, while maintaining capital spending at C$850 million to C$900 million, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
See More
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- Rating Downgrade Impact: Raymond James downgraded Northern Oil and Gas from Strong Buy to Outperform, reducing the price target from $37 to $35, which led to a 1.4% decline in the company's stock on Thursday, reflecting market concerns about its future performance.
- Hedging Strategy Analysis: Northern Oil has approximately 70% of its oil production hedged for FY 2026 at around $70/bbl, which creates near-term headwinds in the current oil price environment compared to less-hedged peers, impacting the company's competitive position.
- Optimistic Production Guidance: Despite the adverse effects of the hedging strategy, analysts believe Northern Oil will exceed its production guidance, with management guiding to the top of the low-end activity scenario while analysts expect oil volumes to approach the high-activity scenario, indicating potential for improved operations.
- Long-Term Outlook: Analysts note that while the current hedge position puts Northern Oil at a disadvantage in a robust oil environment, the combination of increasing industry activity and a smaller hedge profile next year is expected to create a more favorable outlook for the company, reflecting optimism about future market conditions.
See More
Northern Oil & Gas Declares $0.45 Quarterly Dividend
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) declares a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating the company's ongoing ability to maintain stable cash flow despite market fluctuations.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 7.71% makes this dividend attractive to investors seeking stable returns, further solidifying the company's appeal in the capital markets.
- Shareholder Record Date: The dividend will be payable on July 31, with a record date of June 29 and an ex-dividend date also on June 29, ensuring shareholders receive their payouts promptly and enhancing shareholder confidence.
- Financial Performance Overview: Despite NOG reporting a GAAP EPS of -$5.31, missing expectations by $5.99, and revenue of $5.02 million falling short by $501.98 million, the company continues to uphold its dividend payments, demonstrating financial resilience.
See More
Northern Oil and Gas Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Record Deal Activity: Northern Oil and Gas achieved a record 41 transactions in Q1 2026, adding over 5,100 net acres and 6 net wells, demonstrating strong market performance under controlled capital, which is expected to enhance future production capacity and market share.
- Strong Production Performance: The average daily production exceeded 148,000 BOE per day in Q1, marking a 6% sequential increase and setting a company record, indicating robust operational performance in the Appalachia region that effectively addresses market volatility challenges.
- Capital Expenditure and Liquidity: Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $270 million, with approximately $227 million allocated to organic development, while the nearly $230 million equity offering bolstered liquidity, providing over $1.2 billion available for future investments, ensuring flexibility.
- Market Outlook Uncertainty: Despite strong performance in Q1, management refrained from updating 2026 guidance due to significant commodity price volatility, anticipating that natural gas realizations in the Permian will remain weak for the next few quarters until infrastructure projects come online.
See More
NOG Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
