MSC Income Fund Estimates Q4 Adjusted Net Investment Income Up to $0.36 per Share
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Outlook: MSC Income Fund estimates its Q4 adjusted net investment income to be between $0.32 and $0.36 per share, slightly fluctuating from $0.35 in Q3, indicating potential stability in the fund's earnings.
- Net Asset Value Growth: The preliminary net asset value per share is projected to be between $15.81 and $15.89 as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a 1.8% to 2.3% increase from $15.54 on September 30, 2025, driven by net fair value increases and the positive impact of stock repurchases.
- Return on Equity: MSC Income Fund anticipates a return on equity exceeding 16% for Q4, demonstrating effective capital management that may attract more investor interest in its long-term income potential.
- Market Reaction: Despite the optimistic earnings outlook, MSC Income Fund's shares fell 0.61% pre-market to $13.00, indicating market concerns regarding its discount, which could affect investor confidence.
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Analyst Views on MSIF
Wall Street analysts forecast MSIF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MSIF is 18.83 USD with a low forecast of 17.50 USD and a high forecast of 20.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 13.440
Low
17.50
Averages
18.83
High
20.00
Current: 13.440
Low
17.50
Averages
18.83
High
20.00
About MSIF
MSC Income Fund, Inc. is a principal investment firm. The Company is primarily focused on providing debt capital to middle market companies owned by or in the process of being acquired by a private equity fund. The Company’s principal investment objective is to maximize its portfolios total return by generating current income from its debt investments and current income and capital appreciation from its equity and equity-related investments, including warrants, convertible securities, and other rights to acquire equity securities in a portfolio company. The Company’s portfolio investments are typically made to support leveraged buyouts, recapitalizations, growth financings, refinancings and acquisitions of companies that operate in diverse industry sectors. The Company seeks to partner with private equity fund sponsors and primarily invests in secured debt investments within its private loan investment strategy. The Company’s investment advisor is MSC Adviser I, LLC.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
MSC Income Fund Estimates Q4 Adjusted Net Investment Income Up to $0.36 per Share
- Earnings Outlook: MSC Income Fund estimates its Q4 adjusted net investment income to be between $0.32 and $0.36 per share, slightly fluctuating from $0.35 in Q3, indicating potential stability in the fund's earnings.
- Net Asset Value Growth: The preliminary net asset value per share is projected to be between $15.81 and $15.89 as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a 1.8% to 2.3% increase from $15.54 on September 30, 2025, driven by net fair value increases and the positive impact of stock repurchases.
- Return on Equity: MSC Income Fund anticipates a return on equity exceeding 16% for Q4, demonstrating effective capital management that may attract more investor interest in its long-term income potential.
- Market Reaction: Despite the optimistic earnings outlook, MSC Income Fund's shares fell 0.61% pre-market to $13.00, indicating market concerns regarding its discount, which could affect investor confidence.
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MSC Income Fund Announces 2025 Dividend Tax Treatment and Preliminary Q4 Earnings Estimates
- Strong Performance: MSC Income's preliminary operating results for Q4 2025 indicate an estimated adjusted net investment income (ANII) of $0.32 to $0.36 per share, reflecting robust portfolio performance and significant net asset value growth, with an expected return on equity exceeding 16%.
- Dividend Tax Treatment: The total dividend for 2025 is projected at $1.44 per share, with approximately 81% taxed as ordinary income, 18% as qualified dividends, and 1% as long-term capital gains, highlighting the company's focus on tax optimization and enhancing investor appeal.
- Portfolio Growth: As of December 31, 2025, MSC Income estimates its net asset value (NAV) per share to be between $15.81 and $15.89, representing a 1.8% to 2.3% increase from $15.54 as of September 30, 2025, primarily driven by fair value increases in private loan and lower middle market investment portfolios.
- Earnings Release Schedule: MSC Income plans to release its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 26, 2026, followed by a conference call on February 27, 2026, to provide further financial details, enhancing transparency and investor confidence.
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