Moody's AI Model Indicates 49% Recession Probability
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 14 hours ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Rising Recession Probability: Moody's AI model indicates a 49% probability of a U.S. recession, with historical data showing that once it crosses 50%, a recession typically follows within a year, highlighting a concerning economic outlook given that this data was collected before the Iran war.
- Weak Labor Market: The latest jobs report reveals a loss of 92,000 jobs, significantly below economists' expectations of a gain of 59,000, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4%, indicating a downward trend that reflects economic slowdown.
- GDP Revision: U.S. GDP growth has been revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, showcasing a lack of economic momentum, and coupled with inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, this adds to market uncertainty.
- Impact of Energy Prices: The Iran war has disrupted 20% of the world's crude oil supply, pushing prices to nearly $120 per barrel, and historically, every U.S. recession has been preceded by spikes in energy prices, suggesting that unless the situation resolves quickly, recession probabilities may rise further.
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Analyst Views on GS
Wall Street analysts forecast GS stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 822.640
Low
604.00
Averages
951.45
High
1100
Current: 822.640
Low
604.00
Averages
951.45
High
1100
About GS
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a global financial institution that delivers a range of financial services to a large and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and individuals. Its segments include Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management and Platform Solutions. The Global Banking & Markets segment offers a range of services, including financing, advisory services, risk distribution, and hedging for its institutional and corporate clients. It facilitates client transactions and makes markets in fixed income, equity, currency and commodity products. The Asset & Wealth Management segment manages assets and offers investment products across all asset classes to a diverse set of clients. It also provides investing and wealth advisory solutions. The Platform Solutions segment includes consumer platforms, such as partnerships offering credit cards and point-of-sale financing, and transaction banking and other platform businesses.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Rising Recession Probability: Moody's AI model indicates a 49% probability of a U.S. recession, with historical data showing that once it crosses 50%, a recession typically follows within a year, highlighting a concerning economic outlook given that this data was collected before the Iran war.
- Weak Labor Market: The latest jobs report reveals a loss of 92,000 jobs, significantly below economists' expectations of a gain of 59,000, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4%, indicating a downward trend that reflects economic slowdown.
- GDP Revision: U.S. GDP growth has been revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, showcasing a lack of economic momentum, and coupled with inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, this adds to market uncertainty.
- Impact of Energy Prices: The Iran war has disrupted 20% of the world's crude oil supply, pushing prices to nearly $120 per barrel, and historically, every U.S. recession has been preceded by spikes in energy prices, suggesting that unless the situation resolves quickly, recession probabilities may rise further.
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- Weak Labor Market: The latest jobs report reveals a loss of 92,000 jobs, starkly contrasting with economists' expectations of a gain of 59,000, while the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.4%, indicating economic slowdown that could dampen consumer confidence and spending.
- GDP Downgrade: Recent GDP growth has been revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, reflecting sluggish economic performance, and coupled with inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, this raises concerns about the economic outlook, potentially leading to investor caution.
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- Stock Surge: Following the earnings release, Navan's stock soared over 37% this week, with a 43% increase on Thursday alone, although it remains down more than 50% from its $25 IPO price last October, reflecting market optimism about its future growth potential.
- Analyst Optimism: Both Goldman Sachs and Loop Capital reiterated their bullish ratings on Navan, with Goldman setting a $23 price target, implying an 88% upside from last Friday's close, while Loop expects the stock to rise to $20, showcasing confidence in the company's future performance.
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Moody's AI Model Indicates 49% Recession Probability
- Rising Recession Probability: Moody's AI model indicates a 49% probability of a U.S. recession, with historical data showing that once it crosses 50%, a recession typically follows within a year, highlighting a concerning economic outlook given that this data was collected before the Iran war.
- Weak Labor Market: The latest jobs report reveals a loss of 92,000 jobs, significantly below economists' expectations of a gain of 59,000, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4%, indicating a downward trend that reflects economic slowdown.
- GDP Revision: U.S. GDP growth has been revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, showcasing a lack of economic momentum, and coupled with inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, this adds to market uncertainty.
- Impact of Energy Prices: The Iran war has disrupted 20% of the world's crude oil supply, pushing prices to nearly $120 per barrel, and historically, every U.S. recession has been preceded by spikes in energy prices, suggesting that unless the situation resolves quickly, recession probabilities may rise further.
See More
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- Recession Probability: Moody's AI-driven model indicates a 49% probability of a U.S. recession, based on 80 years of historical data showing that every time the odds exceed 50%, a recession typically follows within a year, signaling significant market risks ahead.
- Weak Labor Market: The latest jobs report reveals a loss of 92,000 jobs, starkly contrasting with economists' expectations of a gain of 59,000, while the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.4%, indicating economic slowdown that could dampen consumer confidence and spending.
- GDP Downgrade: Recent GDP growth has been revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, reflecting sluggish economic performance, and coupled with inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, this raises concerns about the economic outlook, potentially leading to investor caution.
- Oil Price Impact: The Iran war has disrupted 20% of global crude oil supply, pushing prices close to $120 per barrel, which could elevate recession odds further; historical data shows that every recession since World War II has been preceded by spikes in fuel prices, increasing market uncertainty.
See More
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See More
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- Attractive Valuation for BofA: Bank of America is trading at a low P/E ratio of 11 times, with projected net interest income growth of 5% to 7% for 2026, surpassing JPMorgan Chase's forecast of 2.6%, positioning it as a compelling investment opportunity.
- Synergies from Capital One Acquisition: Following its acquisition of Discover, Capital One anticipates $2.5 billion in benefits by 2027, primarily from cost reductions and new revenue streams, highlighting the strategic value of the merger.
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See More
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See More
