Middle East Tensions Drive Fertilizer Stocks Rally
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 13 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CF?
Source: seekingalpha
- Market Reaction: Fertilizer stocks have rallied recently as escalating tensions in the Middle East raise concerns about nitrogen supply disruptions, with producers like CF Industries, Nutrien, and Mosaic seeing significant price increases reflecting market expectations of tighter availability.
- Supply Chain Risks: Nearly half of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia shipments originate from conflict-affected regions, raising supply concerns just as the Northern Hemisphere's spring planting season approaches, potentially impacting crop production.
- Cost Advantage: Rising natural gas prices in Europe, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production, are widening the cost advantage for U.S. producers, enhancing their competitiveness in the global market.
- Quant Rating Performance: Within the fertilizer sector, Intrepid Potash and Mosaic have received “Strong Buy” and “Hold” ratings respectively, with 5-day performances of 3.97% and 15.75%, indicating strong market confidence in these companies.
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Analyst Views on CF
Wall Street analysts forecast CF stock price to fall
11 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
7 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 136.450
Low
72.00
Averages
87.55
High
100.00
Current: 136.450
Low
72.00
Averages
87.55
High
100.00
About CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products. The Company is focused on decarbonizing its ammonia production network to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement and other industrial activities. The Company's segments include Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN and Other. Ammonia segment produces anhydrous ammonia (ammonia), which is the base product that it manufactures (containing 82% nitrogen and 18% hydrogen). Granular Urea segment produces granular urea, which contains 46% nitrogen. UAN segment produces urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN). AN segment produces ammonium nitrate (AN). Other segment primarily includes products, such as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea liquor and nitric acid. Its manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, a storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enable a global reach.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Unilever Enforces Hiring Freeze Amid Middle East Conflict
- Hiring Freeze: Unilever has announced an immediate hiring freeze across all levels globally due to 'significant challenges' posed by the Middle East conflict, expected to last at least three months, reflecting the company's response to an uncertain external environment.
- Employee Base: With 96,000 employees operating in 190 countries, covering core business groups such as beauty & wellbeing, personal care, home care, and food, the hiring pause may hinder the company's ability to expand its workforce and adapt to market demands.
- Cost-Saving Initiatives: Unilever committed to €800 million (approximately $918 million) in cost savings in 2024, planning to cut 7,500 office-based roles; by the end of 2025, it had achieved €670 million in savings and expects an additional €130 million in 2026, with the hiring freeze potentially impacting these plans.
- Market Impact: The Middle East conflict has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, leading to widespread inflationary pressures; rising retail and food prices may result from this situation, and the hiring freeze could be a strategic move to navigate the uncertainties and rising costs in the market.
See More
Iran War Intensifies Global Shortages of Tungsten and Other Commodities
- Tungsten Price Surge: Tungsten prices exceeded $3,000 last week, marking over a 50% increase for the month, indicating strong demand in the defense sector despite significant inventory shortages due to the Iran war.
- Rising Sulfuric Acid Prices: Sulfuric acid prices in Africa have risen at least 30% since the onset of the war, while China's sulfur prices increased by approximately 13% from early March, reflecting ongoing demand pressures that could lead to severe supply shocks.
- Helium Supply Tightness: Helium prices have roughly doubled since the Iran war began, particularly after missile attacks on a key industrial center in Qatar, complicating the restoration of global helium supplies and exacerbating market tightness.
- Global Commodity Market Turmoil: The supply chain disruptions caused by the Iran war present new challenges for global markets, prompting companies to diversify their supply sources while China ramps up stockpiling plans, highlighting concerns over future supply uncertainties.
See More
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- Cautious Market Reaction: Trump's declaration of wanting to 'take Iran's oil' while suggesting a 'peace deal could be made fairly quickly' has left markets feeling uneasy, leading investors to adopt a risk-averse stance as Asia-Pacific markets fell sharply on Monday.
- Military Deployment Escalation: The Pentagon is reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, with thousands of American soldiers and Marines arriving in the Middle East, raising concerns about an escalation in the Iran conflict that could disrupt global supply chains and increase prices.
- Rising Oil Price Pressure: Oil prices are climbing again as the conflict intensifies, particularly after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis fired missiles at Israel, heightening fears over energy supply disruptions that could impact the global economy.
- Shipping Route Risks: The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, is being impeded by the ongoing war, with industry leaders warning that if it does not reopen by mid-April, supply disruptions could worsen significantly, affecting operations across various sectors.
See More
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- Surge in Oil Prices: U.S. crude prices have surged over 50% since late February, with Brent up more than 55%, indicating that market concerns over the Iran war are escalating and could lead to greater disruptions in global supply chains.
- Ground Operation Preparations: The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, with thousands of American soldiers and Marines arriving in the Middle East, which could exacerbate market uncertainty and impact oil prices.
- Strait of Hormuz Risks: Industry leaders warn that the vital shipping route of the Strait of Hormuz must reopen by mid-April, or supply disruptions could worsen significantly, further driving up oil prices.
- Market Reaction Fatigue: Following reports of potential ground operations, U.S. equity futures fell on Sunday evening, and Asia-Pacific markets also declined at Monday's open, reflecting investor fatigue over the conflict's headlines and concerns about the future.
See More
Middle East Situation Impacts Oil and Gas Stocks
- Fertilizer Production Disruption: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has left over 1 million tons of fertilizer stranded in the Gulf, causing shortages for farmers; however, CF Industries remains unaffected, maintaining production capacity and demonstrating its pricing power and competitive advantage in the market.
- ExxonMobil Earnings Growth: As the largest U.S. oil and gas company, ExxonMobil is expected to achieve industry-leading earnings of $28.8 billion in 2026 amid rising oil prices, which, despite being slightly lower than last year, provides a strong profit margin due to the current oil price surge.
- Vaalco Energy Market Performance: Vaalco Energy, focusing on regions unaffected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, has seen its stock price rise nearly 70% year-to-date, along with a dividend yield exceeding 4%, indicating strong performance and investment potential in the current market environment.
- CF Industries Stock Buyback: CF Industries repurchased $1.34 billion worth of shares last year, reducing its outstanding share count by approximately 10%, which enhances earnings per share and further solidifies its leadership position in the fertilizer market.
See More
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- Fertilizer Production Disruption: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has left over 1 million tons of fertilizer stranded in the Gulf, leading to shortages for farmers and driving up fertilizer prices, which impacts agricultural production and the food supply chain.
- Strong Performance by CF Industries: CF Industries reported a 19.2% year-over-year increase in net sales for 2025 and repurchased $1.34 billion worth of shares last year, reducing its outstanding shares by approximately 10%, enhancing potential earnings per share, while the current blockade does not affect its production.
- ExxonMobil Benefits from Rising Oil Prices: As the largest publicly traded oil company in the U.S., ExxonMobil saw its stock rise over 80% during the oil price surge in 2022, and it is expected to benefit again in 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, despite a slight decline in earnings for 2025.
- Vaalco Energy's Market Advantage: Operating in Gabon, Egypt, and Côte d'Ivoire, Vaalco Energy is unaffected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, with its stock price up nearly 70% year-to-date, and a dividend yield above 4% providing additional returns for investors.
See More
Unilever Enforces Hiring Freeze Amid Middle East Conflict
- Hiring Freeze: Unilever has announced an immediate hiring freeze across all levels globally due to 'significant challenges' posed by the Middle East conflict, expected to last at least three months, reflecting the company's response to an uncertain external environment.
- Employee Base: With 96,000 employees operating in 190 countries, covering core business groups such as beauty & wellbeing, personal care, home care, and food, the hiring pause may hinder the company's ability to expand its workforce and adapt to market demands.
- Cost-Saving Initiatives: Unilever committed to €800 million (approximately $918 million) in cost savings in 2024, planning to cut 7,500 office-based roles; by the end of 2025, it had achieved €670 million in savings and expects an additional €130 million in 2026, with the hiring freeze potentially impacting these plans.
- Market Impact: The Middle East conflict has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, leading to widespread inflationary pressures; rising retail and food prices may result from this situation, and the hiring freeze could be a strategic move to navigate the uncertainties and rising costs in the market.
See More
Iran War Intensifies Global Shortages of Tungsten and Other Commodities
- Tungsten Price Surge: Tungsten prices exceeded $3,000 last week, marking over a 50% increase for the month, indicating strong demand in the defense sector despite significant inventory shortages due to the Iran war.
- Rising Sulfuric Acid Prices: Sulfuric acid prices in Africa have risen at least 30% since the onset of the war, while China's sulfur prices increased by approximately 13% from early March, reflecting ongoing demand pressures that could lead to severe supply shocks.
- Helium Supply Tightness: Helium prices have roughly doubled since the Iran war began, particularly after missile attacks on a key industrial center in Qatar, complicating the restoration of global helium supplies and exacerbating market tightness.
- Global Commodity Market Turmoil: The supply chain disruptions caused by the Iran war present new challenges for global markets, prompting companies to diversify their supply sources while China ramps up stockpiling plans, highlighting concerns over future supply uncertainties.
See More
Trump's Intent to Seize Iran's Oil Market Raises Concerns
- Cautious Market Reaction: Trump's declaration of wanting to 'take Iran's oil' while suggesting a 'peace deal could be made fairly quickly' has left markets feeling uneasy, leading investors to adopt a risk-averse stance as Asia-Pacific markets fell sharply on Monday.
- Military Deployment Escalation: The Pentagon is reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, with thousands of American soldiers and Marines arriving in the Middle East, raising concerns about an escalation in the Iran conflict that could disrupt global supply chains and increase prices.
- Rising Oil Price Pressure: Oil prices are climbing again as the conflict intensifies, particularly after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis fired missiles at Israel, heightening fears over energy supply disruptions that could impact the global economy.
- Shipping Route Risks: The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, is being impeded by the ongoing war, with industry leaders warning that if it does not reopen by mid-April, supply disruptions could worsen significantly, affecting operations across various sectors.
See More
Escalating Impact of Iran War on Oil Markets
- Surge in Oil Prices: U.S. crude prices have surged over 50% since late February, with Brent up more than 55%, indicating that market concerns over the Iran war are escalating and could lead to greater disruptions in global supply chains.
- Ground Operation Preparations: The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, with thousands of American soldiers and Marines arriving in the Middle East, which could exacerbate market uncertainty and impact oil prices.
- Strait of Hormuz Risks: Industry leaders warn that the vital shipping route of the Strait of Hormuz must reopen by mid-April, or supply disruptions could worsen significantly, further driving up oil prices.
- Market Reaction Fatigue: Following reports of potential ground operations, U.S. equity futures fell on Sunday evening, and Asia-Pacific markets also declined at Monday's open, reflecting investor fatigue over the conflict's headlines and concerns about the future.
See More
Middle East Situation Impacts Oil and Gas Stocks
- Fertilizer Production Disruption: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has left over 1 million tons of fertilizer stranded in the Gulf, causing shortages for farmers; however, CF Industries remains unaffected, maintaining production capacity and demonstrating its pricing power and competitive advantage in the market.
- ExxonMobil Earnings Growth: As the largest U.S. oil and gas company, ExxonMobil is expected to achieve industry-leading earnings of $28.8 billion in 2026 amid rising oil prices, which, despite being slightly lower than last year, provides a strong profit margin due to the current oil price surge.
- Vaalco Energy Market Performance: Vaalco Energy, focusing on regions unaffected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, has seen its stock price rise nearly 70% year-to-date, along with a dividend yield exceeding 4%, indicating strong performance and investment potential in the current market environment.
- CF Industries Stock Buyback: CF Industries repurchased $1.34 billion worth of shares last year, reducing its outstanding share count by approximately 10%, which enhances earnings per share and further solidifies its leadership position in the fertilizer market.
See More
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Drives Gas Prices Higher
- Fertilizer Production Disruption: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has left over 1 million tons of fertilizer stranded in the Gulf, leading to shortages for farmers and driving up fertilizer prices, which impacts agricultural production and the food supply chain.
- Strong Performance by CF Industries: CF Industries reported a 19.2% year-over-year increase in net sales for 2025 and repurchased $1.34 billion worth of shares last year, reducing its outstanding shares by approximately 10%, enhancing potential earnings per share, while the current blockade does not affect its production.
- ExxonMobil Benefits from Rising Oil Prices: As the largest publicly traded oil company in the U.S., ExxonMobil saw its stock rise over 80% during the oil price surge in 2022, and it is expected to benefit again in 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, despite a slight decline in earnings for 2025.
- Vaalco Energy's Market Advantage: Operating in Gabon, Egypt, and Côte d'Ivoire, Vaalco Energy is unaffected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, with its stock price up nearly 70% year-to-date, and a dividend yield above 4% providing additional returns for investors.
See More
