Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, let me provide a comprehensive analysis of NVR stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing bearish signals in the short term:

• Current RSI (14) at 30.05 indicates oversold conditions
• MACD is negative (-248.09) with bearish divergence
• Stock is trading below all major moving averages (5,10,20,60,200-day)
• Stochastic RSI (14) at very low levels (8.63) suggests extreme oversold conditions

Fundamental Analysis

Recent financial performance shows:

• Revenue declined from $10.58B (2022) to $9.69B (2023)
• Net income decreased from $1.73B to $1.59B
• However, key metrics remain strong:
  • Net margin improved slightly to 16.43% (2023) from 16.31% (2022)
  • Current ratio strengthened to 4.30 from 3.87
  • Total equity increased to $4.36B from $3.51B

Recent Market Developments

According to recent news, housing stocks including NVR showed positive momentum following better-than-expected U.S. new home sales data:

• December new home sales increased 3.6% to 698,000 units
• Year-over-year increase of 6.7%
• Total 2024 sales up 2.5% from 2023

Recommendation

SELL for the short term, based on:

1. Bearish technical indicators showing continued downward momentum
2. Trading below all major moving averages
3. Despite positive housing market data, the stock hasn't shown strong recovery signals

However, consider accumulating on further weakness due to:

1. Strong fundamentals with improving margins
2. Healthy balance sheet with increasing equity
3. Positive industry trends in new home sales

Based on the available data and market analysis, here's the price prediction for NVR stock in 2025:

NVR's stock price is expected to reach $8,800-$9,200 by end of 2025. This projection is supported by three key factors: strong housing market momentum, solid earnings growth, and positive technical indicators.

The housing market shows sustained strength with December new home sales increasing 3.6% to 698,000 units, exceeding expectations of 675,000 units. This positive momentum in the housing sector directly benefits NVR's core business.

Recent earnings forecasts indicate revenue of $2.7 billion and EPS of $128.35 for Q1 2025, suggesting continued strong financial performance. The company's ability to maintain pricing power in a high-demand market supports this upward trajectory.

The S1 support level for NVR Stock is $7127.2 ,The R1 resistant level for NVR Stock is $7662.4.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of NVR Stock was $7094.8.

The target price for NVR Stock according to analyst rating is 8,923, with the highest price target at 9,300 and the lowest at 8,570. Analysts have a Hold rating on NVR Stock overall.

The market cap of NVR is $21.2B.

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's a comprehensive analysis of NVR's valuation:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing bearish signals with RSI(14) at 30.05 and MACD trending negative. The price has fallen below both its 20-day (7891.98) and 60-day (8341.14) moving averages, indicating significant downward momentum.

Valuation Metrics

Current valuation metrics compared to previous year:

Metric	2023	2022	Change
P/E	15.11	9.38	+61.1%
EV/EBITDA	10.26	5.69	+80.3%
P/S	2.48	1.53	+62.1%
P/B	5.12	4.23	+21.0%

Financial Performance

The company's financial metrics show some concerning trends:

• Revenue declined 8.4% from $10.58B (2022) to $9.69B (2023)
• Net income decreased 7.8% from $1.73B to $1.59B
• Gross margin slightly declined from 27.58% to 27.21%
• ROE significantly dropped from 53.02% to 40.44%

Market Position

NVR appears overvalued based on several factors:

1. Trading at premium multiples compared to historical averages
2. Declining financial performance
3. Technical indicators suggesting bearish momentum
4. Recent insider selling activity with 6 sales and no purchases in past 6 months
5. Housing market headwinds despite recent positive data

Conclusion: Yes, NVR is currently overvalued. The combination of declining financial performance, elevated valuation multiples, and bearish technical indicators suggests the stock is trading above its intrinsic value.

NVR, Inc. is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings. The Company operates through two segments: homebuilding and mortgage banking. The homebuilding operations primarily construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings under three trade names: Ryan Homes, NVHomes and Heartland Homes, and operates in 36 metropolitan areas in 15 states and Washington, District of Columbia (D.C.). Its mortgage banking operations primarily operate in the homebuilding operations market. Its mortgage banking business consists of origination fees, gains on sales of loans, and title fees. The homebuilding segments are comprised of operating divisions, such as Mid Atlantic, North East, Mid East and South East. Its Mid Atlantic divisions operates in Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware and Washington, District of Columbia (D.C.). Its North East division operates in New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for NVR stock by 2030:

NVR stock is projected to reach $12,500 by 2030. This forecast is supported by the company's strong fundamentals, consistent earnings growth, and resilient housing market demand despite high interest rates. The recent increase in new home sales by 3.6% and the company's strategy of focusing on smaller, more affordable homes positions NVR well for sustained growth.

The technical analysis shows NVR currently trading at $7,365.72 with key support at $7,192.36 and resistance at $7,828.78. The stock has maintained a steady upward trajectory despite market volatility, demonstrating strong fundamental backing.

NVR has a total of 6300 employees.