Linde Shares Decline Despite Strong Earnings — Here's Why We’re Keeping Our Rating
Earnings Performance: Linde's third-quarter revenue rose 3% to $8.62 billion, surpassing estimates, while adjusted earnings per share increased nearly 7% to $4.21, also exceeding expectations. However, cash flow fell short of consensus, leading to a 2% drop in shares.
Guidance and Outlook: The company provided cautious fourth-quarter guidance for adjusted EPS between $4.10 and $4.20, below analyst estimates, and tightened its full-year earnings forecast to $16.35 to $16.45 per share, indicating 5% to 6% annual growth.
Market Position and Backlog: Linde maintains a strong market position with a diverse customer base across various industries, and it reported a record-high project backlog of $10 billion, which is expected to support future earnings growth.
Regional Sales Performance: Sales increased across various segments, with notable growth in the Americas (6% year-over-year) and stable performance in Asia Pacific and Europe, although engineering sales fell 15% year-over-year.
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- Resource Definition Drilling: Lindian Resources has commenced a Stage 2 resource definition drilling program at its Kangankunde Rare Earths Project in Malawi, aiming to convert 20 to 40 million tonnes of Inferred Mineral Resource into Indicated classification, thereby enhancing resource confidence and supporting potential expansion planning.
- Drilling Progress: The program employs two diamond core rigs and one reverse circulation rig, totaling 3,400 meters of diamond drilling and 2,700 meters of RC drilling, expected to continue through April 2026, facilitating more precise pit design.
- Expansion Goals: Lindian aims to increase throughput to 4 million tonnes per annum and assess the potential for an additional 100,000 tonnes per annum of monazite concentrate, with Stage 2 work serving as a key input for evaluating expanded pit design and production capacity.
- Geological Exploration: Kangankunde is interpreted as a carbonatite-hosted rare earth system, with Stage 2 drilling focusing on areas requiring additional confidence to support pit design and scheduling, ensuring continuity and grade distribution of resources.
- Market Dynamics: Wall Street experienced a decline on Thursday, particularly after the conclusion of the Morning Meeting, as the rotation from technology stocks to cyclicals continued, with industrials showing strong performance and driving portfolio results, indicating resilience in cyclical sectors.
- Stock Performance: Companies like Dupont, Dover, Honeywell, Linde, GE Vernova, and Eaton have shown extraordinary year-to-date performance, even as the S&P 500 has only seen slight gains, highlighting the significance of these cyclical stocks in the current market environment.
- Cisco Earnings Impact: Cisco's earnings report on Wednesday, despite a networking order growth exceeding 20%, saw shares drop over 10% on Thursday due to a dip in gross margins from rising memory prices, reflecting market concerns over its profitability.
- Apple Developments: Apple's shares fell more than 3% on Thursday, influenced by Cisco's warnings, and although iPhone sales remain strong, issues with the Siri upgrade testing and a delayed full launch could impact future market performance.
- Industrial Stock Rally: In 2026, industrial stocks like DuPont have shown remarkable performance, with DuPont up approximately 28% year-to-date, reflecting market confidence in industrial recovery; JPMorgan raised its price target from $50 to $57, indicating optimism about future growth.
- Cisco's Decline: Despite reporting strong quarterly results and raising its annual outlook, Cisco's stock fell about 7% in pre-market trading due to high memory prices squeezing gross margins, highlighting market concerns over its future profitability, prompting us to trim our position ahead of the report to mitigate risk.
- AI Market Funding: Anthropic is set to close a $20 billion funding round, valuing the company at $350 billion, which is crucial for the AI sector as it supports cloud providers' infrastructure investments, ensuring sustained compute demand that drives growth in related industries.
- Rising Power Demand: American Electric Power reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, having signed agreements for 28 GW of load capacity since October, bringing total energy commitments to 56 GW by 2030, demonstrating a strong response to high electricity demand, with over 10 GW of gas turbine capacity secured from major manufacturers like GE.
- DuPont Restructuring: DuPont's split into Qnity Electronics and the new DuPont, focusing on healthcare and water, has shown strong quarterly results, indicating significant progress in its transformation and potential to enhance market competitiveness.
- Dover's Performance Surge: Dover's investments in industrial sectors have resulted in double-digit bookings and near double-digit earnings growth, demonstrating robust performance in a low-interest-rate environment and signaling future growth potential.
- Honeywell's Spin-Off Plans: As Honeywell approaches its split into aerospace and automation businesses, market recognition of its value is increasing, particularly for the security automation segment, which could benefit from lower rates, driving the stock price recovery from the $190s last year.
- Eaton and GE Vernova Price Target Increases: Eaton and GE Vernova's price targets have been raised from $410 and $800 to $425 and $875 respectively, reflecting strong market expectations for data center demand, despite both companies having other business developments.
- Price Range Analysis: TQQQ's 52-week low is $17.50 per share and high is $60.685, with the latest trade at $50.81, indicating a cautious market sentiment as the price fluctuates within this range.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest share price to the 200-day moving average provides investors with valuable insights for technical analysis, aiding in trend assessment and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the ETF's liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs experiencing significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), assessing their impact on underlying assets.
- Nasdaq Rebound: The Nasdaq gained over 2% on Friday, yet still posted a 1.8% decline for the week, indicating ongoing investor concerns about tech stocks and the need to monitor future market trends.
- Dow Hits All-Time High: The Dow surged more than 1,200 points on Friday, closing at 50,115 with a weekly gain of 2.5%, reflecting a shift of funds from growth to value stocks, which may influence future investment strategies.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Alphabet announced that its capital expenditures for 2026 could exceed double the previous year, and despite a 0.5% drop in shares on Thursday, market confidence in its AI investments remains strong, signaling expectations for future growth.
- Software Stocks Crushed: Software stocks faced significant declines due to fears of AI encroaching on traditional SaaS companies, leading to pressure on the entire tech sector, prompting investors to remain vigilant about potential risks and opportunities within the industry.








