LGI Homes Q4 Earnings Preview and Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy LGIH?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Announcement Date: LGI Homes is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 16 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.91, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 57.7%, indicating substantial pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline Forecast: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $479.6 million, representing a 14.0% year-over-year decrease, which highlights challenges in sales and market demand that could lead to a downturn in future performance.
- Performance Revision Trends: Over the past year, LGI Homes has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 25% of the time, and in the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and three downward revisions, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from the market regarding the company's future performance.
- Closing Data: LGI Homes reported 569 home closings in December 2025 and a total of 4,788 homes for the year, indicating stable delivery volumes; however, attention must be paid to how changes in market demand could impact future performance.
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Analyst Views on LGIH
Wall Street analysts forecast LGIH stock price to rise
2 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 54.620
Low
40.00
Averages
67.50
High
95.00
Current: 54.620
Low
40.00
Averages
67.50
High
95.00
About LGIH
LGI Homes, Inc. is focused on the homebuilding industry. The Company is engaged in the design, construction and sale of homes across approximately 36 markets in 21 states. It offers multiple product lines, including attached and detached entry-level homes and active adult offerings that are marketed and sold under its LGI Homes brand and luxury homes that are marketed and sold under its Terrata Homes brand. Its homebuilding operations are organized and managed by seven operating segments: West, Northwest, Central, Midwest, Florida, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The Company offers an attached townhome product in certain markets. Its CompleteHome and CompleteHome Plus packages offer buyers move-in ready homes. Each of these packages includes preselected, upgraded features, including stainless steel appliances, cabinets and others. Its wholesale business builds and sells homes primarily to institutions interested in acquiring single-family rental properties through bulk sales agreements.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
LGI Homes Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Delivery and Performance: LGI Homes delivered 1,362 homes in Q4 2025, reaching a total of 80,000 homes delivered, showcasing strong execution and customer service despite high cancellation rates and economic uncertainty.
- Margin Performance: The gross margin for Q4 was 19.2%, with an adjusted gross margin of 22.3%, indicating resilience relative to industry expectations, although below guidance, reflecting effective pricing and inventory management strategies.
- Orders and Backlog: Net orders increased by 39% year-over-year, with backlog rising to 1,394 homes valued at over $501 million, indicating market demand potential, yet a cancellation rate of 43.3% highlights ongoing affordability challenges.
- 2026 Outlook: The company expects to close between 4,600 and 5,400 homes in 2026, with stable selling prices and gross margin targets set between 18% and 20%, demonstrating a commitment to maintaining profitability in an uncertain market.
See More
LGI Homes Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: LGI Homes reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.97, exceeding expectations by $0.06, indicating resilience in profitability despite revenue challenges.
- Revenue Decline: The company’s Q4 revenue of $473.96 million fell 15% year-over-year, missing estimates, which reflects the ongoing challenges in the housing market that could impact future financial performance.
- Stable Closings: During the quarter, LGI closed 1,362 homes, with 1,301 directly contributing to revenue, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain a steady closing rate despite market fluctuations.
- Cautious Outlook: For 2026, LGI projects home closings between 4,600 and 5,400 units at an average sales price of $355,000 to $365,000, reflecting a cautiously optimistic view of market conditions moving forward.
See More
LGI Homes Q4 Earnings Preview and Analysis
- Earnings Announcement Date: LGI Homes is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 16 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.91, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 57.7%, indicating substantial pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline Forecast: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $479.6 million, representing a 14.0% year-over-year decrease, which highlights challenges in sales and market demand that could lead to a downturn in future performance.
- Performance Revision Trends: Over the past year, LGI Homes has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 25% of the time, and in the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and three downward revisions, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from the market regarding the company's future performance.
- Closing Data: LGI Homes reported 569 home closings in December 2025 and a total of 4,788 homes for the year, indicating stable delivery volumes; however, attention must be paid to how changes in market demand could impact future performance.
See More
U.S. Housing Shortage and Investment Opportunities
- Housing Shortage Reality: According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. faces a shortage of 3 to 4 million homes, significantly exceeding the normal annual construction of 1.5 million, leading to fierce competition among buyers and rising prices, thus providing sustained market opportunities for major homebuilders.
- Growth Potential of LGI Homes: LGI Homes is projected to achieve an 11% sales growth this year and 6% next year, reaching $2 billion in sales by 2027, showcasing its ability to stand out in a competitive market, particularly among first-time homebuyers.
- Market Leadership of D.R. Horton: As the largest homebuilder in the U.S., D.R. Horton reported $34.3 billion in sales last year, with expectations to grow sales to nearly $40 billion in the coming years, and its reasonable 10x P/E ratio offers a compelling value proposition for investors.
- Income Model of Invitation Homes: Invitation Homes owns and manages over 100,000 homes, with projected sales growth of only 3%, but its 4.34% dividend yield significantly surpasses the market average, attracting more income-focused investors.
See More
LGI Homes Opens First Terrata Community in California
- Market Expansion Milestone: LGI Homes proudly announces the grand opening of Murieta Hills in Rancho Murieta, California, marking its first Terrata Homes community on the West Coast, which is expected to attract more homebuyers and enhance brand visibility.
- Residential Design Highlights: Homes at Murieta Hills range from 2,004 to 3,024 square feet, featuring three to five bedrooms with open-concept layouts, equipped with upscale kitchens and carefully selected finishes, ensuring a perfect blend of comfort and luxury for homeowners.
- Grand Opening Appeal: The grand opening event on February 14th offers exclusive, one-day-only savings for buyers, which is anticipated to draw a significant number of potential buyers and further boost sales performance.
- Company Background and Achievements: Since its founding in 2003, LGI Homes has closed over 80,000 homes across 36 markets while achieving profitability every year, earning multiple industry awards for exceptional customer service and quality construction, thereby solidifying its market position.
See More
LGI Homes Launches First Terrata Community in California
- Community Grand Opening: LGI Homes is set to celebrate the grand opening of Murieta Hills on February 14, 2026, in Rancho Murieta, marking the debut of the Terrata Homes brand in California, which is expected to attract numerous buyers and enhance the company's market share on the West Coast.
- Home Design and Specifications: The homes at Murieta Hills range from 2,004 to 3,024 square feet, featuring open-concept layouts with three to five bedrooms, equipped with high-end KitchenAid appliances and designer upgrades, ensuring a luxurious living experience for homeowners.
- Market Positioning and Strategic Importance: Located in the picturesque Rancho Murieta, the community offers abundant outdoor amenities and convenient living options, aimed at attracting families seeking tranquility and convenience, thereby solidifying LGI Homes' market presence in California.
- Promotional Activities: On the opening day, homes at Murieta Hills will be priced from the $800s, with exclusive one-day-only savings for attendees, which is anticipated to boost sales and enhance brand visibility, drawing more potential buyers to the community.
See More
LGI Homes Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Delivery and Performance: LGI Homes delivered 1,362 homes in Q4 2025, reaching a total of 80,000 homes delivered, showcasing strong execution and customer service despite high cancellation rates and economic uncertainty.
- Margin Performance: The gross margin for Q4 was 19.2%, with an adjusted gross margin of 22.3%, indicating resilience relative to industry expectations, although below guidance, reflecting effective pricing and inventory management strategies.
- Orders and Backlog: Net orders increased by 39% year-over-year, with backlog rising to 1,394 homes valued at over $501 million, indicating market demand potential, yet a cancellation rate of 43.3% highlights ongoing affordability challenges.
- 2026 Outlook: The company expects to close between 4,600 and 5,400 homes in 2026, with stable selling prices and gross margin targets set between 18% and 20%, demonstrating a commitment to maintaining profitability in an uncertain market.
See More
LGI Homes Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: LGI Homes reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.97, exceeding expectations by $0.06, indicating resilience in profitability despite revenue challenges.
- Revenue Decline: The company’s Q4 revenue of $473.96 million fell 15% year-over-year, missing estimates, which reflects the ongoing challenges in the housing market that could impact future financial performance.
- Stable Closings: During the quarter, LGI closed 1,362 homes, with 1,301 directly contributing to revenue, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain a steady closing rate despite market fluctuations.
- Cautious Outlook: For 2026, LGI projects home closings between 4,600 and 5,400 units at an average sales price of $355,000 to $365,000, reflecting a cautiously optimistic view of market conditions moving forward.
See More
LGI Homes Q4 Earnings Preview and Analysis
- Earnings Announcement Date: LGI Homes is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 16 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.91, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 57.7%, indicating substantial pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline Forecast: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $479.6 million, representing a 14.0% year-over-year decrease, which highlights challenges in sales and market demand that could lead to a downturn in future performance.
- Performance Revision Trends: Over the past year, LGI Homes has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 25% of the time, and in the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and three downward revisions, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from the market regarding the company's future performance.
- Closing Data: LGI Homes reported 569 home closings in December 2025 and a total of 4,788 homes for the year, indicating stable delivery volumes; however, attention must be paid to how changes in market demand could impact future performance.
See More
U.S. Housing Shortage and Investment Opportunities
- Housing Shortage Reality: According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. faces a shortage of 3 to 4 million homes, significantly exceeding the normal annual construction of 1.5 million, leading to fierce competition among buyers and rising prices, thus providing sustained market opportunities for major homebuilders.
- Growth Potential of LGI Homes: LGI Homes is projected to achieve an 11% sales growth this year and 6% next year, reaching $2 billion in sales by 2027, showcasing its ability to stand out in a competitive market, particularly among first-time homebuyers.
- Market Leadership of D.R. Horton: As the largest homebuilder in the U.S., D.R. Horton reported $34.3 billion in sales last year, with expectations to grow sales to nearly $40 billion in the coming years, and its reasonable 10x P/E ratio offers a compelling value proposition for investors.
- Income Model of Invitation Homes: Invitation Homes owns and manages over 100,000 homes, with projected sales growth of only 3%, but its 4.34% dividend yield significantly surpasses the market average, attracting more income-focused investors.
See More
LGI Homes Opens First Terrata Community in California
- Market Expansion Milestone: LGI Homes proudly announces the grand opening of Murieta Hills in Rancho Murieta, California, marking its first Terrata Homes community on the West Coast, which is expected to attract more homebuyers and enhance brand visibility.
- Residential Design Highlights: Homes at Murieta Hills range from 2,004 to 3,024 square feet, featuring three to five bedrooms with open-concept layouts, equipped with upscale kitchens and carefully selected finishes, ensuring a perfect blend of comfort and luxury for homeowners.
- Grand Opening Appeal: The grand opening event on February 14th offers exclusive, one-day-only savings for buyers, which is anticipated to draw a significant number of potential buyers and further boost sales performance.
- Company Background and Achievements: Since its founding in 2003, LGI Homes has closed over 80,000 homes across 36 markets while achieving profitability every year, earning multiple industry awards for exceptional customer service and quality construction, thereby solidifying its market position.
See More
LGI Homes Launches First Terrata Community in California
- Community Grand Opening: LGI Homes is set to celebrate the grand opening of Murieta Hills on February 14, 2026, in Rancho Murieta, marking the debut of the Terrata Homes brand in California, which is expected to attract numerous buyers and enhance the company's market share on the West Coast.
- Home Design and Specifications: The homes at Murieta Hills range from 2,004 to 3,024 square feet, featuring open-concept layouts with three to five bedrooms, equipped with high-end KitchenAid appliances and designer upgrades, ensuring a luxurious living experience for homeowners.
- Market Positioning and Strategic Importance: Located in the picturesque Rancho Murieta, the community offers abundant outdoor amenities and convenient living options, aimed at attracting families seeking tranquility and convenience, thereby solidifying LGI Homes' market presence in California.
- Promotional Activities: On the opening day, homes at Murieta Hills will be priced from the $800s, with exclusive one-day-only savings for attendees, which is anticipated to boost sales and enhance brand visibility, drawing more potential buyers to the community.
See More
