Kaspi.kz: Hidden Risks and Opportunities in the Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy KSPI?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Complex Market Positioning: Kaspi.kz is not merely a fintech or e-commerce platform but serves as the digital infrastructure of Kazakhstan's economy, generating over KZT 4 trillion in revenue in 2025, highlighting its central role in economic activity, yet this centralization also introduces potential fragility.
- Strong User Dependency: With over 14 million monthly active users in Kazakhstan, nearly covering the entire population, and an average of more than 70 transactions per user per month, the platform demonstrates significant daily dependency, providing the company with substantial pricing power.
- International Expansion Risks: While Kaspi's business model is successful in Kazakhstan, its expansion into Turkey faces challenges, with the market pricing in low expectations reflected in a current P/E ratio of 6, indicating investor concerns about potential value dilution from international ventures.
- Robust Financial Engine: Despite regulatory and governance risks, Kaspi's core financial engine remains strong, maintaining high returns on capital, with quarterly fintech revenues reaching KZT 420 billion in 2025, showcasing its competitive advantage in high-yield lending products.
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Analyst Views on KSPI
Wall Street analysts forecast KSPI stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 85.900
Low
107.00
Averages
107.00
High
107.00
Current: 85.900
Low
107.00
Averages
107.00
High
107.00
About KSPI
Kaspi.kz AO (Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz), formerly Aktsionernoe obshchestvo kaspi, is a Kazakhstan-based financial technology company, which provide a range of services such as online payments, e-commerce, and digital banking. The Company operates as holding company for Kaspi Group AO and Kaspi Magazin TOO. The Company operates through two segments. Mass retail offers a wide range of products and financial services to retail customers through a network of branches, offices, and automated teller machine (ATM). These products include savings and current accounts, credit cards, car loans and commodity loans, as well as a wide range of insurance policies. Financial services for corporate, middle, and small, and other businesses segment, including deposits, overdrafts, loans and other credit services and currency exchange.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Kaspi.kz to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 11
- Earnings Announcement: Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is set to release its Q1 earnings report on May 11 before market open, with consensus EPS estimates at $2.65 and revenue at $2.22 billion, indicating strong investor interest in the company's performance.
- Earnings Estimate Changes: Over the past three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and two downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced two upward revisions and one downward revision, reflecting market uncertainty regarding Kaspi.kz's future performance.
- Successful Bond Issuance: Kaspi.kz raised $600 million through an oversubscribed bond issuance maturing in 2031, which not only strengthens the company's capital structure but also provides funding for future expansion and investments.
- Rating Upgrade: The company's rating has been upgraded due to its strategic significance in Kazakhstan's market, particularly in light of its collaboration with Tencent, further solidifying its position as a dominant super app.
See More
Kaspi.kz: Hidden Risks and Opportunities in the Market
- Complex Market Positioning: Kaspi.kz is not merely a fintech or e-commerce platform but serves as the digital infrastructure of Kazakhstan's economy, generating over KZT 4 trillion in revenue in 2025, highlighting its central role in economic activity, yet this centralization also introduces potential fragility.
- Strong User Dependency: With over 14 million monthly active users in Kazakhstan, nearly covering the entire population, and an average of more than 70 transactions per user per month, the platform demonstrates significant daily dependency, providing the company with substantial pricing power.
- International Expansion Risks: While Kaspi's business model is successful in Kazakhstan, its expansion into Turkey faces challenges, with the market pricing in low expectations reflected in a current P/E ratio of 6, indicating investor concerns about potential value dilution from international ventures.
- Robust Financial Engine: Despite regulatory and governance risks, Kaspi's core financial engine remains strong, maintaining high returns on capital, with quarterly fintech revenues reaching KZT 420 billion in 2025, showcasing its competitive advantage in high-yield lending products.
See More
Kaspi.kz Issues $600M Senior Unsecured Notes
- Bond Issuance Size: Kaspi.kz successfully issued $600 million in 5.900% senior unsecured notes due in 2031, demonstrating the company's strong appeal in the capital markets.
- Oversubscription Details: The bond offering attracted participation from around 130 institutional investors, achieving a 3.5x oversubscription, reflecting robust market confidence and demand for Kaspi.kz.
- Use of Proceeds: The proceeds will be utilized for general corporate purposes and to enhance liquidity, indicating the company's prudent financial strategy aimed at supporting future growth and operations in the current economic climate.
- Interest Payment Structure: The bond carries a coupon rate of 5.900%, with semi-annual payments commencing on October 28, 2026, showcasing the company's commitment to investors and transparency in its long-term financial planning.
See More
Kaspi.kz Successfully Issues $600 Million Bond
- Successful Bond Issuance: Kaspi.kz has successfully issued $600 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031, attracting strong demand from approximately 130 institutional investors and being oversubscribed by 3.5 times, indicating robust market confidence in the company's financial health.
- Clear Use of Proceeds: The proceeds from this bond issuance will be utilized for general corporate purposes, further strengthening the company's liquidity and supporting its business expansion and innovative digital services development in Kazakhstan and Türkiye.
- High Rating Support: The notes received investment-grade ratings of Baa3 from Moody's and BBB- from Fitch, reflecting Kaspi.kz's strong reputation in the global debt capital markets, which will facilitate future financing opportunities and potentially lower costs.
- Enhanced Market Confidence: CEO Mikhail Lomtadze stated that this bond issuance marks a significant step in broadening the company's access to global capital markets and deepening relationships with international investors, signaling continued growth momentum for the company in the future.
See More
Kaspi.kz Completes Purchase of 6 Million ADSs
- Shareholder Structure Enhancement: Kaspi.kz announced the purchase of 6 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) from Baring Fintech Venture Funds, which not only strengthens the company's shareholder base but also attracts strategic investors like Tencent, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Management Investment Confidence: The investment by Kaspi.kz's co-founder and CEO Mikheil Lomtadze, along with key management team members, demonstrates their strong belief in the company's Super App business model and long-term strategy, which is expected to further bolster the company's market leadership.
- Market Expansion Potential: Kaspi.kz's Super App integrates services like payments, e-commerce, and fintech in Kazakhstan, achieving an impressive 77 monthly transactions per active user, highlighting its relevance in daily life and laying the groundwork for future expansion into Türkiye.
- Strategic Investor Inclusion: The addition of investors like Spice Expeditions and U.S. Washington University endowments enhances Kaspi.kz's capital strength, which is expected to support its market expansion in Kazakhstan and Türkiye, thereby increasing the company's competitive edge.
See More
TENCENT PARTNERS WITH KASPI.KZ CO-FOUNDER MIKHEIL LOMTADZE AND U.S. INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS FOR INVESTMENT
Investment Announcement: TENCENT has made a significant investment in KASPI, a company co-founded by CEO MIKHEIL LOMTADZE.
Focus on Long-term Growth: The investment is aimed at fostering long-term growth and development within the U.S. institutional investor landscape.
See More
Kaspi.kz to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 11
- Earnings Announcement: Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is set to release its Q1 earnings report on May 11 before market open, with consensus EPS estimates at $2.65 and revenue at $2.22 billion, indicating strong investor interest in the company's performance.
- Earnings Estimate Changes: Over the past three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and two downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced two upward revisions and one downward revision, reflecting market uncertainty regarding Kaspi.kz's future performance.
- Successful Bond Issuance: Kaspi.kz raised $600 million through an oversubscribed bond issuance maturing in 2031, which not only strengthens the company's capital structure but also provides funding for future expansion and investments.
- Rating Upgrade: The company's rating has been upgraded due to its strategic significance in Kazakhstan's market, particularly in light of its collaboration with Tencent, further solidifying its position as a dominant super app.
See More
Kaspi.kz: Hidden Risks and Opportunities in the Market
- Complex Market Positioning: Kaspi.kz is not merely a fintech or e-commerce platform but serves as the digital infrastructure of Kazakhstan's economy, generating over KZT 4 trillion in revenue in 2025, highlighting its central role in economic activity, yet this centralization also introduces potential fragility.
- Strong User Dependency: With over 14 million monthly active users in Kazakhstan, nearly covering the entire population, and an average of more than 70 transactions per user per month, the platform demonstrates significant daily dependency, providing the company with substantial pricing power.
- International Expansion Risks: While Kaspi's business model is successful in Kazakhstan, its expansion into Turkey faces challenges, with the market pricing in low expectations reflected in a current P/E ratio of 6, indicating investor concerns about potential value dilution from international ventures.
- Robust Financial Engine: Despite regulatory and governance risks, Kaspi's core financial engine remains strong, maintaining high returns on capital, with quarterly fintech revenues reaching KZT 420 billion in 2025, showcasing its competitive advantage in high-yield lending products.
See More
Kaspi.kz Issues $600M Senior Unsecured Notes
- Bond Issuance Size: Kaspi.kz successfully issued $600 million in 5.900% senior unsecured notes due in 2031, demonstrating the company's strong appeal in the capital markets.
- Oversubscription Details: The bond offering attracted participation from around 130 institutional investors, achieving a 3.5x oversubscription, reflecting robust market confidence and demand for Kaspi.kz.
- Use of Proceeds: The proceeds will be utilized for general corporate purposes and to enhance liquidity, indicating the company's prudent financial strategy aimed at supporting future growth and operations in the current economic climate.
- Interest Payment Structure: The bond carries a coupon rate of 5.900%, with semi-annual payments commencing on October 28, 2026, showcasing the company's commitment to investors and transparency in its long-term financial planning.
See More
Kaspi.kz Successfully Issues $600 Million Bond
- Successful Bond Issuance: Kaspi.kz has successfully issued $600 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031, attracting strong demand from approximately 130 institutional investors and being oversubscribed by 3.5 times, indicating robust market confidence in the company's financial health.
- Clear Use of Proceeds: The proceeds from this bond issuance will be utilized for general corporate purposes, further strengthening the company's liquidity and supporting its business expansion and innovative digital services development in Kazakhstan and Türkiye.
- High Rating Support: The notes received investment-grade ratings of Baa3 from Moody's and BBB- from Fitch, reflecting Kaspi.kz's strong reputation in the global debt capital markets, which will facilitate future financing opportunities and potentially lower costs.
- Enhanced Market Confidence: CEO Mikhail Lomtadze stated that this bond issuance marks a significant step in broadening the company's access to global capital markets and deepening relationships with international investors, signaling continued growth momentum for the company in the future.
See More
Kaspi.kz Completes Purchase of 6 Million ADSs
- Shareholder Structure Enhancement: Kaspi.kz announced the purchase of 6 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) from Baring Fintech Venture Funds, which not only strengthens the company's shareholder base but also attracts strategic investors like Tencent, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Management Investment Confidence: The investment by Kaspi.kz's co-founder and CEO Mikheil Lomtadze, along with key management team members, demonstrates their strong belief in the company's Super App business model and long-term strategy, which is expected to further bolster the company's market leadership.
- Market Expansion Potential: Kaspi.kz's Super App integrates services like payments, e-commerce, and fintech in Kazakhstan, achieving an impressive 77 monthly transactions per active user, highlighting its relevance in daily life and laying the groundwork for future expansion into Türkiye.
- Strategic Investor Inclusion: The addition of investors like Spice Expeditions and U.S. Washington University endowments enhances Kaspi.kz's capital strength, which is expected to support its market expansion in Kazakhstan and Türkiye, thereby increasing the company's competitive edge.
See More
TENCENT PARTNERS WITH KASPI.KZ CO-FOUNDER MIKHEIL LOMTADZE AND U.S. INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS FOR INVESTMENT
Investment Announcement: TENCENT has made a significant investment in KASPI, a company co-founded by CEO MIKHEIL LOMTADZE.
Focus on Long-term Growth: The investment is aimed at fostering long-term growth and development within the U.S. institutional investor landscape.
See More
