Is Trump's MFN Policy Targeting Pharma ETFs?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 10 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Pharma Price Cuts: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have agreed to reduce prices for obesity drugs under the Trump administration's Most-Favored-Nation drug pricing policy, which aims to align U.S. drug prices with those in other advanced countries.
Impact on Pharma Stocks: The price reductions are expected to compress revenues and earnings for major pharmaceutical companies, leading to potential stock price declines for firms like Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and AbbVie, as well as ETFs heavily invested in these companies.
Long-term Strategies: To counteract immediate financial pressures, large-cap pharma companies may increase prices in other markets and shift research investments towards biologics, which have longer exclusivity periods.
ETF Exposure: Investors should closely monitor pharmaceutical ETFs, such as iShares US Pharmaceuticals ETF, VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF, and Invesco Pharmaceuticals ETF, as they may experience declines in Net Asset Value due to their significant holdings in companies affected by the new pricing mandates.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1064.740
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1064.740
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Growth Driven by Innovation: The pharma company is experiencing significant growth due to the launch of multiple innovative treatments, with expectations to maintain strong market performance in the coming quarters, further solidifying its leadership position in the industry.
- Strong Stock Performance: As of the afternoon of May 23, 2026, the company's stock price has shown impressive performance, reflecting strong investor confidence in its future growth potential, which may attract more institutional investors.
- Surge in Market Demand: With the introduction of new therapies, market demand for the company's products has surged, expected to drive sales growth of over 20% in the next year, thereby enhancing overall profitability.
- Increased R&D Investment: The company plans to increase its R&D budget by 30% over the next three years to accelerate the development of new drugs, ensuring it maintains a technological edge in the highly competitive pharmaceutical market.
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- Weight Loss Market Dynamics: Eli Lilly (LLY) saw its stock price climb nearly 25% over the past month, making it the strongest performer among major obesity drug stocks, highlighting investor recognition of its sustained demand for GLP-1 therapies and market leadership.
- Viking's Competitive Edge: Truist emphasized that Viking's VK2735 drug achieved a 14.7% weight loss in just 13 weeks, with patients continuing to lose weight, showcasing its differentiated competitive advantage in the obesity drug market that could attract more patients.
- Lilly's Market Expansion: Lilly recently announced deals worth up to $3.8 billion with three vaccine developers, further expanding its footprint in infectious diseases and long-term healthcare infrastructure, indicating growth potential beyond its obesity drug portfolio.
See More
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- Portfolio Potential: This portfolio of exceptional stocks is believed to have significant long-term appreciation potential, which could lead to substantial wealth growth for shareholders, reflecting market confidence in these stocks.
- Market Performance Analysis: The stock prices as of the afternoon of May 25, 2026, indicate strong performance in the market, suggesting that investors are optimistic about their future prospects.
- Video Release Timing: The video was published on May 27, 2026, aimed at conveying the investment value of these stocks to investors, further driving market attention towards them.
- Shareholder Wealth Growth: By investing in these exceptional stocks, shareholders are expected to achieve significant wealth growth in the future, highlighting the importance of a long-term investment strategy.
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- AI and Indispensable Monopoly: A company referred to as an 'Indispensable Monopoly' provides critical technology needed by Nvidia and Intel, highlighting its importance in the market and potential growth space, which could become a future investment hotspot.
- Double Down Recommendation Strategy: The analyst team has issued 'Double Down' stock recommendations targeting companies poised for an upswing, emphasizing the importance of seizing investment opportunities amid market volatility and encouraging investors to enter at the right time.
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- Market Competition Dynamics: Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy has taken the lead in the anti-obesity market since its January launch, garnering more prescriptions, while Eli Lilly's Foundayo, launched in April, despite having 80% new users, is trailing in prescription volumes.
- Efficacy Comparison: In clinical trials, oral Wegovy's mean weight loss of 13.6% over 64 weeks significantly outperforms Foundayo's 11.1%, providing Novo Nordisk with a stronger competitive edge, although the latter has some advantages regarding administration restrictions.
- Market Expansion Opportunities: Novo Nordisk's recent EU approval will significantly expand the addressable market for oral Wegovy, further solidifying its position in the anti-obesity drug sector and potentially increasing pressure on Eli Lilly.
- Financial Performance Comparison: Despite trailing in the oral anti-obesity market, Eli Lilly remains strong in chronic weight management, with a 56% year-over-year revenue increase to $19.8 billion in Q1, showcasing the resilience of its diversified drug portfolio.
See More
Trump's Financial Disclosures Reveal Eli Lilly Transactions
- Market Potential: Eli Lilly generated approximately $65 billion in revenue in 2025, largely driven by explosive demand for its anti-obesity drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together exceeded $30 billion in sales, indicating a rapid growth trajectory in pharmaceutical history.
- Industry Leadership: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the anti-obesity drug market, with Lilly showing a stronger growth trajectory as its manufacturing capacity expands and Zepbound gains market share, which is expected to further solidify its market position.
- Future Earnings Expectations: Analysts project that Lilly's annual earnings per share will reach between $37 and $52 over the next four years, significantly up from $23 in 2025, reflecting its revenue growth in obesity treatments that is expected to outpace most large pharmaceutical peers.
- Investment Risks and Opportunities: While Lilly's valuation is higher than most large-cap pharmaceutical companies, its future growth potential is already priced in, and investors should be cautious of significant volatility if sales growth slows or competition intensifies.
See More
