Is Trump's MFN Policy Targeting Pharma ETFs?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 10 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Pharma Price Cuts: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have agreed to reduce prices for obesity drugs under the Trump administration's Most-Favored-Nation drug pricing policy, which aims to align U.S. drug prices with those in other advanced countries.
Impact on Pharma Stocks: The price reductions are expected to compress revenues and earnings for major pharmaceutical companies, leading to potential stock price declines for firms like Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and AbbVie, as well as ETFs heavily invested in these companies.
Long-term Strategies: To counteract immediate financial pressures, large-cap pharma companies may increase prices in other markets and shift research investments towards biologics, which have longer exclusivity periods.
ETF Exposure: Investors should closely monitor pharmaceutical ETFs, such as iShares US Pharmaceuticals ETF, VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF, and Invesco Pharmaceuticals ETF, as they may experience declines in Net Asset Value due to their significant holdings in companies affected by the new pricing mandates.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 910.550
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 910.550
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly Stock Analysis and Outlook
- Stock Performance: Eli Lilly's stock has surged approximately 400% over the past five years, with a market cap exceeding $800 billion; despite a trailing P/E ratio near 40, its strong growth potential justifies the premium.
- Analyst Ratings: The consensus price target for Eli Lilly is slightly above $1,221, indicating about a 35% upside from current levels, with 25 out of the last 30 ratings being buy ratings, reflecting bullish sentiment among analysts regarding its future performance.
- Financial Results: In Q4 2025, Eli Lilly reported a 43% increase in sales to $19.3 billion and a 50% jump in net income to $6.6 billion, driven by the popularity of its GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, showcasing its competitive strength in the market.
- Long-Term Investment Potential: Although the stock is down 16% this year and underperforming the S&P 500, Eli Lilly's ongoing focus on growth and new drug launches positions it as an excellent long-term investment option worth considering.
See More
EMA: ALL DISCONTINUATIONS ANTICIPATED BY Q2 2027, AFTER WHICH AFFECTED INSULIN FORMULATIONS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
Discontinuations Expected: All discontinuations are anticipated to occur before Q2 2027.
Impact on Insulin Presentations: After the discontinuations, affected insulin presentations will no longer be available.
See More
US Senators Agree to Limit Insulin Prices to $35 - Semafor
Senators Reach Agreement: U.S. senators have come to a consensus on capping insulin costs at $35.
Impact on Patients: This deal aims to alleviate the financial burden on diabetes patients who rely on insulin.
See More
Investing $400 Monthly Can Grow to $1.5 Million
- Regular Investment Advantage: Investing $400 monthly, assuming a 10% annual return, can lead to a portfolio exceeding $1.5 million after 35 years, demonstrating the immense potential of consistent small investments.
- Significant Compounding Effect: The power of compounding accelerates growth as the balance increases, highlighting the importance of ongoing investments, especially in the early stages of saving.
- Growth Fund Selection: Investing in growth-focused ETFs like the Vanguard Growth Index Fund can enhance the likelihood of achieving strong returns, even though future S&P 500 performance is uncertain.
- Diversified Portfolio: This ETF, with a low expense ratio of 0.03%, invests in 151 top growth stocks, including Nvidia and Tesla, providing excellent market exposure and helping investors achieve substantial returns over the long term.
See More
Altria and Eli Lilly See Active Options Trading
- Altria Options Volume: Altria Group Inc experienced options trading volume of 67,403 contracts, equivalent to approximately 6.7 million shares, representing about 66.2% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, indicating strong market interest in the stock.
- High Strike Call Activity: Specifically, the $66 strike call option expiring on March 27, 2026, saw 15,952 contracts traded today, representing around 1.6 million underlying shares, suggesting investor optimism regarding Altria's future performance.
- Eli Lilly Options Trading: Eli Lilly recorded options trading volume of 18,822 contracts, approximately 1.9 million shares, or about 64.7% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, reflecting ongoing investor interest in the company.
- Active Call Options: For Eli Lilly, the $1060 strike call option expiring on April 17, 2026, had a trading volume of 1,337 contracts today, representing about 133,700 underlying shares, indicating market confidence in the company's growth prospects.
See More
Barclays Reaffirms Overweight Rating on LLY Stock
- FDA Approval Anticipation: Barclays reaffirmed its ‘Overweight’ rating on Eli Lilly (LLY) stock with a price target of $1,350, anticipating FDA approval for its new weight-loss pill orforglipron on April 10, 2026, which could drive a stock rebound.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite LLY shares facing downward pressure with nearly a 10% decline over the past six trading days, Barclays analyst Emily Field emphasized that the current price near $900 is too cheap to ignore, recommending investors buy ahead of the FDA approval for potential gains.
- Strong Clinical Results: Eli Lilly's experimental diabetes drug Retatrutide showed impressive Phase 3 results, with patients experiencing an average weight loss of 36.6 pounds (17 kg) over 40 weeks, highlighting its potential in the growing obesity market, with sales expected to exceed $10.6 billion by 2036.
- Analyst Rating Distribution: According to Koyfin data, among the 31 analysts covering LLY stock, 24 have a “Buy” rating, 6 have “Hold,” and only 1 has “Sell,” indicating strong market confidence in the company's future growth.
See More
Eli Lilly Stock Analysis and Outlook
- Stock Performance: Eli Lilly's stock has surged approximately 400% over the past five years, with a market cap exceeding $800 billion; despite a trailing P/E ratio near 40, its strong growth potential justifies the premium.
- Analyst Ratings: The consensus price target for Eli Lilly is slightly above $1,221, indicating about a 35% upside from current levels, with 25 out of the last 30 ratings being buy ratings, reflecting bullish sentiment among analysts regarding its future performance.
- Financial Results: In Q4 2025, Eli Lilly reported a 43% increase in sales to $19.3 billion and a 50% jump in net income to $6.6 billion, driven by the popularity of its GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, showcasing its competitive strength in the market.
- Long-Term Investment Potential: Although the stock is down 16% this year and underperforming the S&P 500, Eli Lilly's ongoing focus on growth and new drug launches positions it as an excellent long-term investment option worth considering.
See More
EMA: ALL DISCONTINUATIONS ANTICIPATED BY Q2 2027, AFTER WHICH AFFECTED INSULIN FORMULATIONS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
Discontinuations Expected: All discontinuations are anticipated to occur before Q2 2027.
Impact on Insulin Presentations: After the discontinuations, affected insulin presentations will no longer be available.
See More
US Senators Agree to Limit Insulin Prices to $35 - Semafor
Senators Reach Agreement: U.S. senators have come to a consensus on capping insulin costs at $35.
Impact on Patients: This deal aims to alleviate the financial burden on diabetes patients who rely on insulin.
See More
Investing $400 Monthly Can Grow to $1.5 Million
- Regular Investment Advantage: Investing $400 monthly, assuming a 10% annual return, can lead to a portfolio exceeding $1.5 million after 35 years, demonstrating the immense potential of consistent small investments.
- Significant Compounding Effect: The power of compounding accelerates growth as the balance increases, highlighting the importance of ongoing investments, especially in the early stages of saving.
- Growth Fund Selection: Investing in growth-focused ETFs like the Vanguard Growth Index Fund can enhance the likelihood of achieving strong returns, even though future S&P 500 performance is uncertain.
- Diversified Portfolio: This ETF, with a low expense ratio of 0.03%, invests in 151 top growth stocks, including Nvidia and Tesla, providing excellent market exposure and helping investors achieve substantial returns over the long term.
See More
Altria and Eli Lilly See Active Options Trading
- Altria Options Volume: Altria Group Inc experienced options trading volume of 67,403 contracts, equivalent to approximately 6.7 million shares, representing about 66.2% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, indicating strong market interest in the stock.
- High Strike Call Activity: Specifically, the $66 strike call option expiring on March 27, 2026, saw 15,952 contracts traded today, representing around 1.6 million underlying shares, suggesting investor optimism regarding Altria's future performance.
- Eli Lilly Options Trading: Eli Lilly recorded options trading volume of 18,822 contracts, approximately 1.9 million shares, or about 64.7% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, reflecting ongoing investor interest in the company.
- Active Call Options: For Eli Lilly, the $1060 strike call option expiring on April 17, 2026, had a trading volume of 1,337 contracts today, representing about 133,700 underlying shares, indicating market confidence in the company's growth prospects.
See More
Barclays Reaffirms Overweight Rating on LLY Stock
- FDA Approval Anticipation: Barclays reaffirmed its ‘Overweight’ rating on Eli Lilly (LLY) stock with a price target of $1,350, anticipating FDA approval for its new weight-loss pill orforglipron on April 10, 2026, which could drive a stock rebound.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite LLY shares facing downward pressure with nearly a 10% decline over the past six trading days, Barclays analyst Emily Field emphasized that the current price near $900 is too cheap to ignore, recommending investors buy ahead of the FDA approval for potential gains.
- Strong Clinical Results: Eli Lilly's experimental diabetes drug Retatrutide showed impressive Phase 3 results, with patients experiencing an average weight loss of 36.6 pounds (17 kg) over 40 weeks, highlighting its potential in the growing obesity market, with sales expected to exceed $10.6 billion by 2036.
- Analyst Rating Distribution: According to Koyfin data, among the 31 analysts covering LLY stock, 24 have a “Buy” rating, 6 have “Hold,” and only 1 has “Sell,” indicating strong market confidence in the company's future growth.
See More
