Investors Elated On CPI Data, Dr. Copper At A New High On Short Squeeze
Cooler Inflation Data:
- Stock market is breaking out above resistance zone, with RSI at an extreme overbought level.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly cooler than expected, but core CPI remains high.
- Retail sales data indicates consumer pullback, impacting earnings.
- Copper futures hit a new high due to short squeeze, not indicative of the economy.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows:
- Positive money flows in Alphabet, Meta Platforms, NVIDIA, and Tesla.
- Neutral money flows in Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft.
- Positive money flows in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks:
- Momo crowd buying stocks aggressively, while smart money is inactive.
- Smart money typically sells into strength from momo crowd and buys into weakness.
Gold:
- Momo crowd buying gold, while smart money is inactive.
- Popular ETFs for gold are SPDR Gold Trust GLD and iShares Silver Trust SLV.
Oil:
- API crude inventories show draw higher than consensus.
- Momo crowd selling oil, smart money inactive.
- Popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF USO.
Bitcoin:
- Bitcoin being bought aggressively despite lower CPI, challenging its role as an inflation hedge.
Protection Band And What To Do Now:
- Consider holding existing positions and setting protection bands with cash or hedges.
- Adjust hedge levels based on risk preference and market conditions.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio:
- Long duration strategic bond allocation may not be favorable currently.
- Consider focusing on high-quality bonds or using bond ETFs tactically rather than strategically.
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TRUMP: POSITIVE DISCUSSIONS ON IRAN OVER THE PAST DAY
- Trump's Recent Talks: Donald Trump has engaged in discussions regarding Iran over the past 24 hours.
- Focus on Iran: The conversations have been characterized as very positive, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations.
US April ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Increases by 109,000, Exceeding Forecast of 99,000 and Previous Gain of 62,000
April ADB Nonfarm Employment Change: The U.S. added 109,000 nonfarm jobs in April, indicating a positive employment trend.
Comparison to Forecast: This figure surpassed the forecast of 99,000 jobs, suggesting stronger-than-expected job growth.
Prior Month's Revision: The previous month's employment change was revised upward to 62,000 jobs, reflecting an improved labor market.
Overall Employment Trends: The data indicates a continuing recovery in the job market, with employment growth exceeding expectations.
U.S. SEC Proposes Changes to Allow Public Companies to Choose Semiannual Reporting
- Proposed Amendments: The U.S. SEC has proposed amendments to eliminate the requirement for public companies to provide optional semiannual reporting.
- Impact on Reporting: This change aims to streamline reporting processes for public companies, potentially reducing their regulatory burden.
Brent and U.S. WTI Crude Futures Surge Nearly 5% Following Iran's Attack on U.S. Warship
Market Reaction: Brent and U.S. crude futures experienced extended gains, rising about 5%.
Triggering Event: The increase in oil prices followed reports of an attack on a U.S. warship by Iran.
BOJ KEEPS SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 0.75%
- Interest Rate Decision: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.75%.
- Monetary Policy Stance: This decision reflects the BOJ's ongoing commitment to its monetary policy framework amidst economic conditions.
JUSTICE DEPARTMENT LIKELY TO END INVESTIGATION INTO FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL BY FRIDAY, SOURCES TELL ABC
Justice Department Investigation: The Justice Department is expected to drop its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell as soon as Friday, according to an ABC News report.
Implications of the Decision: The decision to drop the investigation may have significant implications for the Federal Reserve and its leadership, particularly in the context of ongoing economic challenges.
TRUMP: POSITIVE DISCUSSIONS ON IRAN OVER THE PAST DAY
- Trump's Recent Talks: Donald Trump has engaged in discussions regarding Iran over the past 24 hours.
- Focus on Iran: The conversations have been characterized as very positive, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations.
US April ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Increases by 109,000, Exceeding Forecast of 99,000 and Previous Gain of 62,000
April ADB Nonfarm Employment Change: The U.S. added 109,000 nonfarm jobs in April, indicating a positive employment trend.
Comparison to Forecast: This figure surpassed the forecast of 99,000 jobs, suggesting stronger-than-expected job growth.
Prior Month's Revision: The previous month's employment change was revised upward to 62,000 jobs, reflecting an improved labor market.
Overall Employment Trends: The data indicates a continuing recovery in the job market, with employment growth exceeding expectations.
U.S. SEC Proposes Changes to Allow Public Companies to Choose Semiannual Reporting
- Proposed Amendments: The U.S. SEC has proposed amendments to eliminate the requirement for public companies to provide optional semiannual reporting.
- Impact on Reporting: This change aims to streamline reporting processes for public companies, potentially reducing their regulatory burden.
Brent and U.S. WTI Crude Futures Surge Nearly 5% Following Iran's Attack on U.S. Warship
Market Reaction: Brent and U.S. crude futures experienced extended gains, rising about 5%.
Triggering Event: The increase in oil prices followed reports of an attack on a U.S. warship by Iran.
BOJ KEEPS SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 0.75%
- Interest Rate Decision: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.75%.
- Monetary Policy Stance: This decision reflects the BOJ's ongoing commitment to its monetary policy framework amidst economic conditions.
JUSTICE DEPARTMENT LIKELY TO END INVESTIGATION INTO FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL BY FRIDAY, SOURCES TELL ABC
Justice Department Investigation: The Justice Department is expected to drop its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell as soon as Friday, according to an ABC News report.
Implications of the Decision: The decision to drop the investigation may have significant implications for the Federal Reserve and its leadership, particularly in the context of ongoing economic challenges.
