Increased Tax Refunds Expected to Boost Retail Spending in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy BURL?
Source: Benzinga
- Increase in Refunds: The average individual tax refund in the U.S. rose to $2,290 in 2026 from $2,065 in 2025, marking an 11% increase, which will provide additional cash for budget-constrained households, likely driving retail spending.
- Impact of Stimulus Policies: Analysts predict that as the tax season progresses, the increase in refunds will widen, with households expected to receive approximately $1,000 in stimulus, directly influencing consumer spending behavior.
- Changing Spending Patterns: Lower and middle-income households tend to spend their refunds rather than save them, as evidenced by a 35% year-over-year increase in visits to the IRS website by February 6, indicating heightened awareness of refund amounts.
- Retail Market Outlook: Retailers catering to low-income consumers are expected to benefit the most in 2026, although inflation-driven budget constraints mean that spending will likely prioritize essentials before discretionary items.
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Analyst Views on BURL
Wall Street analysts forecast BURL stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 311.130
Low
310.00
Averages
334.62
High
363.00
Current: 311.130
Low
310.00
Averages
334.62
High
363.00
About BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc. is an off-price retailer of branded merchandise at everyday low prices. The Company’s stores offer an extensive selection of in-season, fashion-focused merchandise, including women’s ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, baby, beauty, footwear, accessories, home, toys, gifts and coats. Its broad selection provides a wide range of apparel, accessories and furnishings for all ages. It sells a broad selection of merchandise acquired directly from manufacturers and other suppliers. It has six distribution centers. Its three east coast distribution centers are located in Edgewater Park, New Jersey; Burlington, New Jersey; and Logan, New Jersey. Its three west coast distribution centers are located in San Bernardino, California, Redlands, California, and Riverside, California. These six distribution centers occupy an aggregate of 5,135,000 square feet, and each includes processing, shipping and storage capabilities. It operates in about 1,108 stores.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Burlington Stores to Release FY 2025 Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Burlington Stores is set to announce its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results before the U.S. market opens on March 5, 2026, which may influence investor confidence.
- Conference Call Details: The company will hold a conference call at 8:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on the same day to discuss results, allowing investors to engage directly by dialing 1-800-715-9871, enhancing investor relations.
- Information Dissemination Channels: Burlington Stores will continue to utilize SEC filings, press releases, and webcasts to communicate material information, ensuring transparency and building investor trust.
- Social Media Engagement: The company encourages investors to follow its social media platforms for the latest updates and important information, further strengthening communication with customers and investors.
See More
Increased Tax Refunds Expected to Boost Retail Spending in 2026
- Increase in Refunds: The average individual tax refund in the U.S. rose to $2,290 in 2026 from $2,065 in 2025, marking an 11% increase, which will provide additional cash for budget-constrained households, likely driving retail spending.
- Impact of Stimulus Policies: Analysts predict that as the tax season progresses, the increase in refunds will widen, with households expected to receive approximately $1,000 in stimulus, directly influencing consumer spending behavior.
- Changing Spending Patterns: Lower and middle-income households tend to spend their refunds rather than save them, as evidenced by a 35% year-over-year increase in visits to the IRS website by February 6, indicating heightened awareness of refund amounts.
- Retail Market Outlook: Retailers catering to low-income consumers are expected to benefit the most in 2026, although inflation-driven budget constraints mean that spending will likely prioritize essentials before discretionary items.
See More
Supreme Court Set to Rule on Tariff Authority
- Tariff Legality Review: The Supreme Court is poised to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could significantly impact pricing and margin strategies for consumer giants like Costco and Procter & Gamble.
- Potential EBITDA Uplift: Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that a rollback or limitation of IEEPA-based tariffs could lead to a mid-single-digit uplift in EBITDA for affected retailers, providing notable margin support amid economic pressures.
- Retailer Response Strategies: While awaiting the ruling, retailers such as Costco and Amazon are leveraging strong negotiating power and value-oriented business models to navigate tariff pressures, ensuring they protect consumer value even as costs rise.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite tariffs remaining a defining feature of the trade landscape, analysts believe that consumer spending may receive additional support from tax refunds, making the retail and consumer staples sectors attractive investment opportunities.
See More
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- Restructuring Agreement: The company has entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement with its secured lenders and commenced voluntary bankruptcy proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey, aiming to maintain operations and seek a buyer through restructuring.
- Retail Operations Continuity: Despite entering bankruptcy, Eddie Bauer's stores in the U.S. and Canada will remain open for liquidation sales, maximizing asset value while searching for a going-concern buyer, indicating a strategic approach to asset management during financial distress.
- E-commerce Business Stability: Eddie Bauer's e-commerce and wholesale operations, which transitioned to Outdoor 5, LLC in January, remain unaffected by the bankruptcy process, suggesting that the company has managed to stabilize part of its business during this transition.
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- New Additions: JPMorgan's February favorites list includes First Industrial Realty Trust, a Chicago-based industrial real estate owner, whose shares have risen nearly 8% over the past year but remain below the 2021 all-time high, indicating relative value and growth potential.
- Improving Fundamentals: Analyst Ken Goldman highlighted that industrial fundamentals are improving, and First Industrial Realty Trust is well-positioned to leverage its substantial development pipeline, thus providing a solid investment opportunity for stakeholders.
- Stocks Retained: JPMorgan maintains its bullish stance on Boeing and Microsoft, despite a sell-off in Microsoft shares due to slight misses in cloud service growth; the bank reiterates its overweight rating, emphasizing the importance of the Azure revenue base.
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See More
Burlington Stores to Release FY 2025 Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Burlington Stores is set to announce its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results before the U.S. market opens on March 5, 2026, which may influence investor confidence.
- Conference Call Details: The company will hold a conference call at 8:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on the same day to discuss results, allowing investors to engage directly by dialing 1-800-715-9871, enhancing investor relations.
- Information Dissemination Channels: Burlington Stores will continue to utilize SEC filings, press releases, and webcasts to communicate material information, ensuring transparency and building investor trust.
- Social Media Engagement: The company encourages investors to follow its social media platforms for the latest updates and important information, further strengthening communication with customers and investors.
See More
Increased Tax Refunds Expected to Boost Retail Spending in 2026
- Increase in Refunds: The average individual tax refund in the U.S. rose to $2,290 in 2026 from $2,065 in 2025, marking an 11% increase, which will provide additional cash for budget-constrained households, likely driving retail spending.
- Impact of Stimulus Policies: Analysts predict that as the tax season progresses, the increase in refunds will widen, with households expected to receive approximately $1,000 in stimulus, directly influencing consumer spending behavior.
- Changing Spending Patterns: Lower and middle-income households tend to spend their refunds rather than save them, as evidenced by a 35% year-over-year increase in visits to the IRS website by February 6, indicating heightened awareness of refund amounts.
- Retail Market Outlook: Retailers catering to low-income consumers are expected to benefit the most in 2026, although inflation-driven budget constraints mean that spending will likely prioritize essentials before discretionary items.
See More
Supreme Court Set to Rule on Tariff Authority
- Tariff Legality Review: The Supreme Court is poised to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could significantly impact pricing and margin strategies for consumer giants like Costco and Procter & Gamble.
- Potential EBITDA Uplift: Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that a rollback or limitation of IEEPA-based tariffs could lead to a mid-single-digit uplift in EBITDA for affected retailers, providing notable margin support amid economic pressures.
- Retailer Response Strategies: While awaiting the ruling, retailers such as Costco and Amazon are leveraging strong negotiating power and value-oriented business models to navigate tariff pressures, ensuring they protect consumer value even as costs rise.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite tariffs remaining a defining feature of the trade landscape, analysts believe that consumer spending may receive additional support from tax refunds, making the retail and consumer staples sectors attractive investment opportunities.
See More
Market Shift Sheds Light on AI Challenges: Reasons Behind Stock Struggles and 5 Key Updates for Today.
- S&P 500 Performance: The S&P 500 has been struggling to surpass the 7000 point mark.
- Historical Threshold: This round-number challenge has persisted since the index first tested this level in late October.
See More
Eddie Bauer Files for Voluntary Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection Amid Operational Pressures
- Bankruptcy Filing: Eddie Bauer LLC announced on Monday that it has filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, primarily due to tariff uncertainty and mounting operational pressures, highlighting the severe financial challenges the company faces.
- Restructuring Agreement: The company has entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement with its secured lenders and commenced voluntary bankruptcy proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey, aiming to maintain operations and seek a buyer through restructuring.
- Retail Operations Continuity: Despite entering bankruptcy, Eddie Bauer's stores in the U.S. and Canada will remain open for liquidation sales, maximizing asset value while searching for a going-concern buyer, indicating a strategic approach to asset management during financial distress.
- E-commerce Business Stability: Eddie Bauer's e-commerce and wholesale operations, which transitioned to Outdoor 5, LLC in January, remain unaffected by the bankruptcy process, suggesting that the company has managed to stabilize part of its business during this transition.
See More
JPMorgan Updates Stock Favorites List for February
- New Additions: JPMorgan's February favorites list includes First Industrial Realty Trust, a Chicago-based industrial real estate owner, whose shares have risen nearly 8% over the past year but remain below the 2021 all-time high, indicating relative value and growth potential.
- Improving Fundamentals: Analyst Ken Goldman highlighted that industrial fundamentals are improving, and First Industrial Realty Trust is well-positioned to leverage its substantial development pipeline, thus providing a solid investment opportunity for stakeholders.
- Stocks Retained: JPMorgan maintains its bullish stance on Boeing and Microsoft, despite a sell-off in Microsoft shares due to slight misses in cloud service growth; the bank reiterates its overweight rating, emphasizing the importance of the Azure revenue base.
- Stocks Removed: The bank has removed Best Buy, Burlington Stores, and Regency Centers from its February list, downgrading Best Buy and Regency to neutral while keeping Burlington at overweight, reflecting a cautious outlook on these retailers.
See More
