Home Depot Q4 Earnings Preview Amid Cautious Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy HD?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Expectations: Home Depot is set to report its Q4 earnings on February 24, with Wall Street expecting an EPS of $2.52, a 19.5% year-over-year decline, and revenue of $38.1 billion, down 4%, indicating significant market pressures facing the company.
- Revision Trends: Over the past three months, analysts have made 15 downward revisions to EPS estimates with only one upward revision, reflecting a cautious outlook on Home Depot's future profitability, while revenue estimates have seen eight upward and five downward revisions.
- Sales Performance: For Q3, comparable sales increased by just 0.2%, missing the consensus expectation of 1.4%, with CEO Ted Decker attributing the miss to a lack of storms that resulted in greater-than-expected pressure in certain categories.
- Market Reaction: Despite a strong start to 2026 with shares up over 10% year-to-date, the stock has been relatively muted over the past year, and the divergence in analyst ratings reflects differing views on growth and valuation, leading to an overall cautious market sentiment.
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Analyst Views on HD
Wall Street analysts forecast HD stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 382.250
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
Current: 382.250
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
About HD
The Home Depot, Inc. is a home improvement specialty retailer. The Company offers an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, decor products, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products, in stores and online. It also provides various services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. The Company operates approximately 2,353 retail stores, over 800 branches and more than 325 distribution centers that directly fulfill customer orders across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces and Mexico. Its stores average approximately 105,000 square feet of enclosed space, with approximately 24,000 additional square feet of outside garden area. The Company serves two primary customer groups, including both do-it-yourself (DIY) and Do-It-For-Me (DIFM) customers and Professional Customers (Pros).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Home Depot Q4 Earnings Preview and Dividend Insights
- Earnings Release Announcement: Home Depot is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens on February 24, with analysts projecting earnings per share of $2.53, down from $3.02 in the previous year, indicating potential challenges in the current market environment.
- Revenue Forecast Downgrade: The expected quarterly revenue is $38.13 billion, lower than last year's $39.7 billion, suggesting that slowing consumer spending may negatively impact the company's performance.
- Analyst Rating Adjustment: RBC Capital analyst Steven Shemesh has maintained a Sector Perform rating for Home Depot while lowering the price target from $366 to $363 on February 19, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
- Dividend Yield Analysis: With an annual dividend yield of 2.41% and a quarterly dividend of $2.30, investors looking to earn $500 monthly would need to invest approximately $249,227, highlighting the attractiveness of the company's dividend policy for income-focused investors.
See More
Home Depot Q4 Earnings Estimates and Insights
- Revenue Decline Expected: Analysts forecast Home Depot's Q4 revenue at $38.18 billion, down from $39.7 billion last year, reflecting cautious consumer spending and a weak housing market, which may pose challenges for future growth.
- Earnings Per Share Forecast: Expected EPS is $2.52, down from $3.13 last year, indicating volatility in profitability as the company has missed analyst estimates in three consecutive quarters despite beating expectations in seven of the last ten quarters.
- Technical Analysis Focus: Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, notes that Home Depot's stock is at a midpoint technical level, currently down 3.1%, with a potential breakout above $390 needed to return to recent highs of $420, while a drop could lead to a better entry point around $355-$360.
- AI Capability Expansion: Home Depot plans to extend its AI capabilities, with investors keen to see how this strategy aids in growing its customer base and revenue, particularly as weather impacts on Q4 performance will be a key observation point.
See More
Senate Democrats Push Tariff Refund Legislation Following Supreme Court Ruling
- Tariff Refund Legislation: Senate Democrats introduced a new bill on Monday mandating refunds for tariffs imposed during Trump's presidency, responding to the Supreme Court's 6-3 decision last Friday that struck down most of Trump's tariffs, with estimates suggesting the U.S. government could owe over $175 billion to importers, significantly impacting small businesses and manufacturers financially.
- Economic Impact Assessment: Democratic leader Ron Wyden stated that Trump's tariff policies have caused lasting damage to American families and small businesses, and the bill aims to quickly return funds to affected businesses, helping them alleviate the economic pressures caused by rising tariffs.
- Refund Processing Timeline: The bill requires Customs and Border Protection to process all tariff refunds within 180 days of enactment, prioritizing small businesses; however, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the refund process could face significant logistical challenges, potentially taking years to complete.
- Political Context: Although House Democrats are also pushing for similar refund legislation, the path to passage remains unclear in a Republican-controlled Congress, especially with the upcoming midterm elections, as Democrats seek to leverage this issue to attract voter attention.
See More
Earnings Reports Week for Major Companies
- Earnings Reporting Schedule: This week features earnings reports from the world's largest publicly traded companies across energy, retail, and tech sectors, with investors keenly observing performance and market reactions.
- JOBY Stock Movement: JOBY stock is experiencing volatility, and investor sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming earnings, particularly given the broader market context.
- Lucid Group Expectations: Lucid Group is set to report after Tuesday's close, with analysts forecasting a quarterly loss of $2.64 per share on revenue of approximately $473 million, focusing on gross margin and cash runway.
- AI Infrastructure Spending: Analysts anticipate a tech company's fourth-quarter revenue of around $65.6 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.52, with the market keenly awaiting Q1 guidance and CEO insights on AI infrastructure spending.
See More
Home Depot Q4 Earnings Preview Amid Cautious Outlook
- Earnings Expectations: Home Depot is set to report its Q4 earnings on February 24, with Wall Street expecting an EPS of $2.52, a 19.5% year-over-year decline, and revenue of $38.1 billion, down 4%, indicating significant market pressures facing the company.
- Revision Trends: Over the past three months, analysts have made 15 downward revisions to EPS estimates with only one upward revision, reflecting a cautious outlook on Home Depot's future profitability, while revenue estimates have seen eight upward and five downward revisions.
- Sales Performance: For Q3, comparable sales increased by just 0.2%, missing the consensus expectation of 1.4%, with CEO Ted Decker attributing the miss to a lack of storms that resulted in greater-than-expected pressure in certain categories.
- Market Reaction: Despite a strong start to 2026 with shares up over 10% year-to-date, the stock has been relatively muted over the past year, and the divergence in analyst ratings reflects differing views on growth and valuation, leading to an overall cautious market sentiment.
See More
Supreme Court Rules Trump Lacks Authority to Impose Tariffs
- Legal Ruling Impact: The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that Trump lacks the authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act positively affects consumer giants like Nike, Target, and Home Depot, although initial market reactions were muted, potentially easing consumer burdens in the long run.
- Nike's Financial Challenges: Nike's stock has plummeted over 50% in the past five years, with a 10% revenue decline and a 40% drop in net income in fiscal 2025, while gross margins continue to deteriorate, indicating that even with reduced tariff pressures, restoring global consumer demand remains a significant hurdle.
- Target's Market Share Decline: Target has experienced negative sales growth for three consecutive years, with its stock down nearly 40% over five years; despite reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains, a substantial portion of its products are still imported, and lower tariffs could help improve its market performance.
- Home Depot Facing Market Weakness: Home Depot struggles in a sluggish housing market with net margins declining for three consecutive years; while it is set to release fresh financials soon, favorable tariff adjustments could enhance its margins and stimulate sales growth.
See More
Home Depot Q4 Earnings Preview and Dividend Insights
- Earnings Release Announcement: Home Depot is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens on February 24, with analysts projecting earnings per share of $2.53, down from $3.02 in the previous year, indicating potential challenges in the current market environment.
- Revenue Forecast Downgrade: The expected quarterly revenue is $38.13 billion, lower than last year's $39.7 billion, suggesting that slowing consumer spending may negatively impact the company's performance.
- Analyst Rating Adjustment: RBC Capital analyst Steven Shemesh has maintained a Sector Perform rating for Home Depot while lowering the price target from $366 to $363 on February 19, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
- Dividend Yield Analysis: With an annual dividend yield of 2.41% and a quarterly dividend of $2.30, investors looking to earn $500 monthly would need to invest approximately $249,227, highlighting the attractiveness of the company's dividend policy for income-focused investors.
See More
Home Depot Q4 Earnings Estimates and Insights
- Revenue Decline Expected: Analysts forecast Home Depot's Q4 revenue at $38.18 billion, down from $39.7 billion last year, reflecting cautious consumer spending and a weak housing market, which may pose challenges for future growth.
- Earnings Per Share Forecast: Expected EPS is $2.52, down from $3.13 last year, indicating volatility in profitability as the company has missed analyst estimates in three consecutive quarters despite beating expectations in seven of the last ten quarters.
- Technical Analysis Focus: Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, notes that Home Depot's stock is at a midpoint technical level, currently down 3.1%, with a potential breakout above $390 needed to return to recent highs of $420, while a drop could lead to a better entry point around $355-$360.
- AI Capability Expansion: Home Depot plans to extend its AI capabilities, with investors keen to see how this strategy aids in growing its customer base and revenue, particularly as weather impacts on Q4 performance will be a key observation point.
See More
Senate Democrats Push Tariff Refund Legislation Following Supreme Court Ruling
- Tariff Refund Legislation: Senate Democrats introduced a new bill on Monday mandating refunds for tariffs imposed during Trump's presidency, responding to the Supreme Court's 6-3 decision last Friday that struck down most of Trump's tariffs, with estimates suggesting the U.S. government could owe over $175 billion to importers, significantly impacting small businesses and manufacturers financially.
- Economic Impact Assessment: Democratic leader Ron Wyden stated that Trump's tariff policies have caused lasting damage to American families and small businesses, and the bill aims to quickly return funds to affected businesses, helping them alleviate the economic pressures caused by rising tariffs.
- Refund Processing Timeline: The bill requires Customs and Border Protection to process all tariff refunds within 180 days of enactment, prioritizing small businesses; however, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the refund process could face significant logistical challenges, potentially taking years to complete.
- Political Context: Although House Democrats are also pushing for similar refund legislation, the path to passage remains unclear in a Republican-controlled Congress, especially with the upcoming midterm elections, as Democrats seek to leverage this issue to attract voter attention.
See More
Earnings Reports Week for Major Companies
- Earnings Reporting Schedule: This week features earnings reports from the world's largest publicly traded companies across energy, retail, and tech sectors, with investors keenly observing performance and market reactions.
- JOBY Stock Movement: JOBY stock is experiencing volatility, and investor sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming earnings, particularly given the broader market context.
- Lucid Group Expectations: Lucid Group is set to report after Tuesday's close, with analysts forecasting a quarterly loss of $2.64 per share on revenue of approximately $473 million, focusing on gross margin and cash runway.
- AI Infrastructure Spending: Analysts anticipate a tech company's fourth-quarter revenue of around $65.6 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.52, with the market keenly awaiting Q1 guidance and CEO insights on AI infrastructure spending.
See More
Home Depot Q4 Earnings Preview Amid Cautious Outlook
- Earnings Expectations: Home Depot is set to report its Q4 earnings on February 24, with Wall Street expecting an EPS of $2.52, a 19.5% year-over-year decline, and revenue of $38.1 billion, down 4%, indicating significant market pressures facing the company.
- Revision Trends: Over the past three months, analysts have made 15 downward revisions to EPS estimates with only one upward revision, reflecting a cautious outlook on Home Depot's future profitability, while revenue estimates have seen eight upward and five downward revisions.
- Sales Performance: For Q3, comparable sales increased by just 0.2%, missing the consensus expectation of 1.4%, with CEO Ted Decker attributing the miss to a lack of storms that resulted in greater-than-expected pressure in certain categories.
- Market Reaction: Despite a strong start to 2026 with shares up over 10% year-to-date, the stock has been relatively muted over the past year, and the divergence in analyst ratings reflects differing views on growth and valuation, leading to an overall cautious market sentiment.
See More
Supreme Court Rules Trump Lacks Authority to Impose Tariffs
- Legal Ruling Impact: The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that Trump lacks the authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act positively affects consumer giants like Nike, Target, and Home Depot, although initial market reactions were muted, potentially easing consumer burdens in the long run.
- Nike's Financial Challenges: Nike's stock has plummeted over 50% in the past five years, with a 10% revenue decline and a 40% drop in net income in fiscal 2025, while gross margins continue to deteriorate, indicating that even with reduced tariff pressures, restoring global consumer demand remains a significant hurdle.
- Target's Market Share Decline: Target has experienced negative sales growth for three consecutive years, with its stock down nearly 40% over five years; despite reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains, a substantial portion of its products are still imported, and lower tariffs could help improve its market performance.
- Home Depot Facing Market Weakness: Home Depot struggles in a sluggish housing market with net margins declining for three consecutive years; while it is set to release fresh financials soon, favorable tariff adjustments could enhance its margins and stimulate sales growth.
See More
