Goldman Sachs Upgrades Vistra to Buy with $205 Target
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2d ago
0mins
Should l Buy VST?
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Vistra from Neutral to Buy with a $205 price target, reflecting confidence in the company's future growth, particularly after the recent stock pullback.
- EBITDA Forecast Increase: By incorporating the Meta power purchase agreement into its forecast, Goldman raised Vistra's FY 2027 EBITDA estimates by 5%, indicating the company's ability to secure sizable PPA contracts despite policy uncertainties.
- Price Protection Analysis: The analyst noted that Vistra's current stock price implies an average future power price of $49/MWh, below the current forward average of $58/MWh, suggesting limited upside around incremental PPAs or power price appreciation.
- Fundamental Outlook: Despite market volatility and risks around signing PPAs, Goldman remains constructive on Vistra's fundamentals, believing that its retail operations and capacity revenues help mitigate business volatility.
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Analyst Views on VST
Wall Street analysts forecast VST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VST is 240.09 USD with a low forecast of 217.00 USD and a high forecast of 287.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 143.070
Low
217.00
Averages
240.09
High
287.00
Current: 143.070
Low
217.00
Averages
240.09
High
287.00
About VST
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company that provides essential resources to customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine. It operates a reliable power generation fleet of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities while taking an innovative, customer-centric approach to its retail business. Its segments include Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The Retail segment is engaged in retail sales of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers. The Texas and East segments are engaged in electricity generation, wholesale energy sales and purchases, commodity risk management activities, fuel procurement, and logistics management. The West segment represents results from the CAISO market, including its battery ESS projects at its Moss Landing power plant site. The Asset Closure segment is engaged in the decommissioning and reclamation of retired plants and mines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Goldman Sachs Upgrades Vistra to Buy with $205 Target
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- EBITDA Forecast Increase: By incorporating the Meta power purchase agreement into its forecast, Goldman raised Vistra's FY 2027 EBITDA estimates by 5%, indicating the company's ability to secure sizable PPA contracts despite policy uncertainties.
- Price Protection Analysis: The analyst noted that Vistra's current stock price implies an average future power price of $49/MWh, below the current forward average of $58/MWh, suggesting limited upside around incremental PPAs or power price appreciation.
- Fundamental Outlook: Despite market volatility and risks around signing PPAs, Goldman remains constructive on Vistra's fundamentals, believing that its retail operations and capacity revenues help mitigate business volatility.
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- Bitcoin Rebounds: Bitcoin surged over 11% from a 1.25-year low, lifting cryptocurrency-exposed stocks and signaling renewed investor interest and confidence in crypto assets.
- Strong Corporate Earnings: Over 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, with S&P earnings growth projected at 8.4% for Q4, providing robust support for the market and indicating ongoing improvement in corporate profitability.
See More
U.S. Stocks Surge as Tech Earnings Boost Market Sentiment
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 Index rose by 1.10%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.60%, reaching an all-time high, reflecting positive market sentiment driven by strong tech earnings results.
- Tech Stock Recovery: Gen Digital and Roblox surged over 7% and 9%, respectively, after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS and bookings above consensus, indicating a robust recovery in the tech sector that may attract more investment.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to 57.3, a six-month high, surpassing expectations of 55.0, reflecting optimistic consumer sentiment about the economic outlook, which supports further market gains.
- Inflation Expectations Shift: While short-term inflation expectations fell, long-term expectations ticked up slightly, indicating market concerns regarding the Fed's monetary policy, which could influence future investment decisions and market volatility.
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- Bitcoin Recovery: Bitcoin rebounded over 7% from a 1.25-year low, lifting cryptocurrency-exposed stocks and alleviating concerns about liquidity in the crypto market, indicating renewed investor interest in digital assets.
- Amazon Investment Concerns: Amazon's announcement of a $200 billion investment in data centers, chips, and other equipment led to a more than 9% drop in its stock, raising doubts about the long-term returns of its AI investments and potentially impacting future investor confidence.
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- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Analysts indicate that with the rebound in oil and natural gas prices, energy companies are expected to achieve profit growth in the coming quarters, further solidifying their importance in investment portfolios.
- Investor Focus Shifts: The rise in energy stocks has attracted investor attention, potentially leading to more capital flowing into the sector, which could drive capital expenditures and expansion plans for related firms.
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Goldman Sachs Upgrades Vistra to Buy with $205 Target
- Rating Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Vistra from Neutral to Buy with a $205 price target, reflecting confidence in the company's future growth, particularly after the recent stock pullback.
- EBITDA Forecast Increase: By incorporating the Meta power purchase agreement into its forecast, Goldman raised Vistra's FY 2027 EBITDA estimates by 5%, indicating the company's ability to secure sizable PPA contracts despite policy uncertainties.
- Price Protection Analysis: The analyst noted that Vistra's current stock price implies an average future power price of $49/MWh, below the current forward average of $58/MWh, suggesting limited upside around incremental PPAs or power price appreciation.
- Fundamental Outlook: Despite market volatility and risks around signing PPAs, Goldman remains constructive on Vistra's fundamentals, believing that its retail operations and capacity revenues help mitigate business volatility.
See More
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- Tech Stock Volatility: After three sessions of sharp losses, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are expected to open higher, despite significant post-earnings losses in Amazon, indicating investor concerns about tech stocks that may lead to a reassessment of risks.
- Amazon's Spending Plan: Amazon's $200 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026, coupled with a current-quarter profit forecast miss that sent shares down 8%, suggests the company may face financial pressure in the AI race.
- Stellantis Restructuring: Stellantis announced a massive $26 billion restructuring charge, including a pullback on electric vehicle plans and reintroducing V8 engines, resulting in a 24% drop in shares, reflecting market concerns about its future strategy.
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