Goldman Sachs Downgrades Tronox to Sell Amid Weak TiO2 Demand
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 12 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Downgrade: Goldman Sachs has downgraded Tronox from Buy to Sell with a price target of $9, indicating that the fundamentals of titanium dioxide (TiO2) are skewing negatively, with Tronox being the most exposed among relevant producers.
- Export Volumes Surpass Expectations: Analyst Duffy Fischer noted that Chinese TiO2 export volumes for March significantly exceeded expectations, while Q1 results from paint companies like Sherwin-Williams, PPG Industries, and Axalta Coating revealed weaker-than-expected volumes, with paints and coatings accounting for over 60% of TiO2 demand.
- Increased Market Competition: The U.K. antitrust regulators recently approved the acquisition of the closed Greatham TiO2 facility by China's LB Group, potentially adding new capacity and a producer to the European market, intensifying competition.
- Stock Price Fluctuations: Despite Tronox's shares more than doubling year-to-date and gaining approximately 25% since the onset of the Middle East conflict, consensus EBITDA estimates have declined by 18% and 3% respectively over these periods, raising concerns about its future performance.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy TROX?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on TROX
Wall Street analysts forecast TROX stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 7.700
Low
3.50
Averages
4.97
High
6.00
Current: 7.700
Low
3.50
Averages
4.97
High
6.00
About TROX
Tronox Holdings plc is a producer of titanium products, including titanium dioxide (TiO2) pigment, specialty-grade titanium dioxide products and high-purity titanium chemicals, and zircon. The Company is a vertically integrated manufacturer of TiO2 pigment. It mines titanium-bearing mineral sands and operates upgrading facilities that produce high-grade titanium feedstock materials, pig iron and other minerals, including the rare earth-bearing mineral, monazite. It operates titanium-bearing mineral sand mines and beneficiation and smelting operations in Australia and South Africa to produce feedstock materials that can be processed into TiO2 for pigment, high-purity titanium chemicals, including titanium tetrachloride, and ultrafine TiO2 used in certain specialty applications. The Company supplies and markets TiO2 under the brand names TIONA and CristalActiv. It has nine pigment facilities located in the United States, Australia, Brazil, and the United Kingdom, among others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Goldman Sachs Downgrades Tronox to Sell Amid Weak TiO2 Demand
- Rating Downgrade: Goldman Sachs has downgraded Tronox from Buy to Sell with a price target of $9, indicating that the fundamentals of titanium dioxide (TiO2) are skewing negatively, with Tronox being the most exposed among relevant producers.
- Export Volumes Surpass Expectations: Analyst Duffy Fischer noted that Chinese TiO2 export volumes for March significantly exceeded expectations, while Q1 results from paint companies like Sherwin-Williams, PPG Industries, and Axalta Coating revealed weaker-than-expected volumes, with paints and coatings accounting for over 60% of TiO2 demand.
- Increased Market Competition: The U.K. antitrust regulators recently approved the acquisition of the closed Greatham TiO2 facility by China's LB Group, potentially adding new capacity and a producer to the European market, intensifying competition.
- Stock Price Fluctuations: Despite Tronox's shares more than doubling year-to-date and gaining approximately 25% since the onset of the Middle East conflict, consensus EBITDA estimates have declined by 18% and 3% respectively over these periods, raising concerns about its future performance.
See More
Tronox Holdings Reports Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Amid Rising Costs
- Performance Overview: Tronox generated $760 million in revenue for Q1 2026, despite an operational loss of $41 million and a net loss of $103 million, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.55, indicating profitability pressures in a high-cost environment.
- Cost Challenges: The price of sulfur and sulfuric acid has surged nearly 300% due to the Middle East conflict, significantly impacting the company's cost structure, with management highlighting this as a persistent pressure on future profitability.
- Cash Flow Management: The company reduced inventory by approximately $75 million in Q1, although free cash flow was a negative $135 million, management anticipates positive cash flow in Q2, reflecting a focus on capital efficiency.
- Future Outlook: Management expects TiO2 volumes to increase in the high single-digit range and pricing to rise in the mid-single-digit range for Q2 2026, with adjusted EBITDA guidance set between $65 million and $85 million, reflecting an optimistic outlook on market demand.
See More
Tronox Reports Q1 Revenue Growth Amid Challenges
- Revenue Growth: Tronox reported Q1 revenue of $760 million, a 3% year-over-year increase primarily driven by higher sales volumes of TiO2 and zircon, despite lower average selling prices, indicating resilience in the market.
- TiO2 Performance: TiO2 sales reached $616 million, up 5% year-over-year, with a 5% increase in volumes and favorable exchange rates contributing to the results, reflecting strong demand in key markets.
- Cash Flow Status: The company reported a negative free cash flow of $135 million for the quarter; however, it improved cash generation by reducing inventory levels by approximately $75 million, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency.
- Future Outlook: Tronox expects TiO2 volumes to increase in the high single-digit percentage range in Q2, with pricing also anticipated to rise, demonstrating the company's proactive strategies in managing cost pressures and market demand.
See More
Tronox Downgraded to Sell by Truist
- Downgrade Announcement: Truist has downgraded Tronox (TROX) from Hold to Sell with a price target reduced from $9 to $8, indicating concerns over the company's near-term earnings outlook, with net leverage expected to peak at approximately 12x this year, highlighting increased financial pressure.
- Earnings Guidance Risks: Analyst Peter Osterland anticipates that Tronox's Q1 results will align closely with consensus, but there are risks that the company's guidance for the year may indicate a slower pace of earnings improvement than Wall Street models, potentially undermining investor confidence.
- Declining EBITDA Estimates: Osterland's Q2 EBITDA estimate for Tronox is $73 million, reflecting a 22% year-over-year decline and 17% below consensus, suggesting that a significant miss in guidance could dampen expectations for a rebound in share price momentum.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite short-term profitability challenges, Osterland believes Tronox has long-term earnings catalysts through its mineral sands operations involving rare earth elements, although these benefits may already be priced into the stock, necessitating cautious evaluation of future risks.
See More
Tronox Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.05 per Share
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Tronox Holdings plc has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share, payable on July 8, 2026, to shareholders of record as of May 11, 2026, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to its shareholders.
- Global Workforce: With approximately 5,700 employees across six continents, Tronox's rich diversity and unmatched vertical integration model solidify its position as the world's leading titanium dioxide producer, enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Product Diversity: The company not only produces high-quality titanium dioxide but also specializes in specialty-grade titanium dioxide and high-purity titanium chemicals, further expanding its product portfolio to meet diverse market demands and enhancing overall business resilience.
- Mineral Resource Development: By mining titanium-bearing mineral sands and operating upgrading facilities that produce high-grade titanium feedstock and other minerals, Tronox ensures a stable supply of raw materials, thereby strengthening its competitive advantage in the global market.
See More
Tronox Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.05 per Share
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Tronox Holdings has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating the company's stable cash flow and shareholder return strategy, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 1.97% reflects the company's relative attractiveness in the current market environment, potentially boosting investor confidence in its stock.
- Shareholder Record Date: The dividend will be payable on July 8, with a record date of May 11 and an ex-dividend date also on May 11, providing investors with a clear timeline for participation in the dividend distribution.
- Market Outlook: Tronox is poised to benefit from anti-dumping efforts, although facing a downgrade from Truist due to concerns over cost structures, which may impact short-term stock performance.
See More
Goldman Sachs Downgrades Tronox to Sell Amid Weak TiO2 Demand
- Rating Downgrade: Goldman Sachs has downgraded Tronox from Buy to Sell with a price target of $9, indicating that the fundamentals of titanium dioxide (TiO2) are skewing negatively, with Tronox being the most exposed among relevant producers.
- Export Volumes Surpass Expectations: Analyst Duffy Fischer noted that Chinese TiO2 export volumes for March significantly exceeded expectations, while Q1 results from paint companies like Sherwin-Williams, PPG Industries, and Axalta Coating revealed weaker-than-expected volumes, with paints and coatings accounting for over 60% of TiO2 demand.
- Increased Market Competition: The U.K. antitrust regulators recently approved the acquisition of the closed Greatham TiO2 facility by China's LB Group, potentially adding new capacity and a producer to the European market, intensifying competition.
- Stock Price Fluctuations: Despite Tronox's shares more than doubling year-to-date and gaining approximately 25% since the onset of the Middle East conflict, consensus EBITDA estimates have declined by 18% and 3% respectively over these periods, raising concerns about its future performance.
See More
Tronox Holdings Reports Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Amid Rising Costs
- Performance Overview: Tronox generated $760 million in revenue for Q1 2026, despite an operational loss of $41 million and a net loss of $103 million, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.55, indicating profitability pressures in a high-cost environment.
- Cost Challenges: The price of sulfur and sulfuric acid has surged nearly 300% due to the Middle East conflict, significantly impacting the company's cost structure, with management highlighting this as a persistent pressure on future profitability.
- Cash Flow Management: The company reduced inventory by approximately $75 million in Q1, although free cash flow was a negative $135 million, management anticipates positive cash flow in Q2, reflecting a focus on capital efficiency.
- Future Outlook: Management expects TiO2 volumes to increase in the high single-digit range and pricing to rise in the mid-single-digit range for Q2 2026, with adjusted EBITDA guidance set between $65 million and $85 million, reflecting an optimistic outlook on market demand.
See More
Tronox Reports Q1 Revenue Growth Amid Challenges
- Revenue Growth: Tronox reported Q1 revenue of $760 million, a 3% year-over-year increase primarily driven by higher sales volumes of TiO2 and zircon, despite lower average selling prices, indicating resilience in the market.
- TiO2 Performance: TiO2 sales reached $616 million, up 5% year-over-year, with a 5% increase in volumes and favorable exchange rates contributing to the results, reflecting strong demand in key markets.
- Cash Flow Status: The company reported a negative free cash flow of $135 million for the quarter; however, it improved cash generation by reducing inventory levels by approximately $75 million, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency.
- Future Outlook: Tronox expects TiO2 volumes to increase in the high single-digit percentage range in Q2, with pricing also anticipated to rise, demonstrating the company's proactive strategies in managing cost pressures and market demand.
See More
Tronox Downgraded to Sell by Truist
- Downgrade Announcement: Truist has downgraded Tronox (TROX) from Hold to Sell with a price target reduced from $9 to $8, indicating concerns over the company's near-term earnings outlook, with net leverage expected to peak at approximately 12x this year, highlighting increased financial pressure.
- Earnings Guidance Risks: Analyst Peter Osterland anticipates that Tronox's Q1 results will align closely with consensus, but there are risks that the company's guidance for the year may indicate a slower pace of earnings improvement than Wall Street models, potentially undermining investor confidence.
- Declining EBITDA Estimates: Osterland's Q2 EBITDA estimate for Tronox is $73 million, reflecting a 22% year-over-year decline and 17% below consensus, suggesting that a significant miss in guidance could dampen expectations for a rebound in share price momentum.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite short-term profitability challenges, Osterland believes Tronox has long-term earnings catalysts through its mineral sands operations involving rare earth elements, although these benefits may already be priced into the stock, necessitating cautious evaluation of future risks.
See More
Tronox Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.05 per Share
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Tronox Holdings plc has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share, payable on July 8, 2026, to shareholders of record as of May 11, 2026, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to its shareholders.
- Global Workforce: With approximately 5,700 employees across six continents, Tronox's rich diversity and unmatched vertical integration model solidify its position as the world's leading titanium dioxide producer, enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Product Diversity: The company not only produces high-quality titanium dioxide but also specializes in specialty-grade titanium dioxide and high-purity titanium chemicals, further expanding its product portfolio to meet diverse market demands and enhancing overall business resilience.
- Mineral Resource Development: By mining titanium-bearing mineral sands and operating upgrading facilities that produce high-grade titanium feedstock and other minerals, Tronox ensures a stable supply of raw materials, thereby strengthening its competitive advantage in the global market.
See More
Tronox Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.05 per Share
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Tronox Holdings has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating the company's stable cash flow and shareholder return strategy, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 1.97% reflects the company's relative attractiveness in the current market environment, potentially boosting investor confidence in its stock.
- Shareholder Record Date: The dividend will be payable on July 8, with a record date of May 11 and an ex-dividend date also on May 11, providing investors with a clear timeline for participation in the dividend distribution.
- Market Outlook: Tronox is poised to benefit from anti-dumping efforts, although facing a downgrade from Truist due to concerns over cost structures, which may impact short-term stock performance.
See More
