Genius Sports: The Winner in Prediction Markets
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy GENI?
Source: Fool
- Market Potential: Genius Sports, dubbed the 'operating system of modern sport', provides essential data and analytics for sports wagering and prediction markets, and despite a 60% drop in stock price over the past year, its business model shows strong growth potential as prediction markets rise.
- Profitability Improvement: The company has achieved profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis, and as incremental revenue growth occurs, the bottom line is expected to be significantly impacted, especially with its adtech business poised to become a crucial segment of overall operations.
- Acquisition Impact: Genius announced a $900 million acquisition of sports media company Legend, which is expected to boost adjusted EBITDA from $190 million to $320 million and increase operating margin from 23% to 30%, greatly enhancing the company's profitability.
- Future Earnings Outlook: Analysts forecast earnings per share to reach $0.28 by 2027 and $0.60 by 2028, and with the stock currently trading near $4.50, there is substantial rebound potential for Genius Sports, making it an attractive long-term investment opportunity.
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Analyst Views on GENI
Wall Street analysts forecast GENI stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 4.350
Low
13.00
Averages
16.00
High
20.00
Current: 4.350
Low
13.00
Averages
16.00
High
20.00
About GENI
Genius Sports Limited is the official data, technology and broadcast partner that powers the ecosystem connecting sports, betting and media. It operates through one segment, which consists of providing access to Betting Content Technology, Content and Services; Media Technology Content and Services; and Sports Technology and Services. It builds and supplies technology and services that allow sports leagues to collect, analyze and monetize their data with added tools to deepen fan engagement. It provides sports leagues with bespoke monitoring technology and education services to help protect their competitions and athletes from the threats of match fixing and betting-related corruption. It offers official data, outsourced bookmaking, trading/risk management services and live audio-visual game content that is derived from its streaming partnerships with sports leagues. Its offerings include Live sports data, Pre-game and in-game odds feeds, and BetVision, among others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Genius Sports: The Winner in Prediction Markets
- Market Potential: Genius Sports, dubbed the 'operating system of modern sport', provides essential data and analytics for sports wagering and prediction markets, and despite a 60% drop in stock price over the past year, its business model shows strong growth potential as prediction markets rise.
- Profitability Improvement: The company has achieved profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis, and as incremental revenue growth occurs, the bottom line is expected to be significantly impacted, especially with its adtech business poised to become a crucial segment of overall operations.
- Acquisition Impact: Genius announced a $900 million acquisition of sports media company Legend, which is expected to boost adjusted EBITDA from $190 million to $320 million and increase operating margin from 23% to 30%, greatly enhancing the company's profitability.
- Future Earnings Outlook: Analysts forecast earnings per share to reach $0.28 by 2027 and $0.60 by 2028, and with the stock currently trading near $4.50, there is substantial rebound potential for Genius Sports, making it an attractive long-term investment opportunity.
See More
Genius Sports Poised for a Turnaround Amid Market Trends
- Market Trend Analysis: Despite Genius Sports' shares dropping over 60% in the past year, the rise of prediction markets could signal a turning point for profitability, especially with the upcoming $900 million acquisition of Legend.
- Acquisition Impact: The acquisition is expected to boost Genius Sports' adjusted EBITDA from $190 million to $320 million and increase operating margins from 23% to 30%, significantly enhancing financial performance.
- Earnings Expectations: Analysts forecast earnings per share to reach $0.28 in 2027 and $0.60 in 2028, indicating strong growth potential, particularly with the stock currently trading near $4.50.
- Industry Position: As a
See More
Genius Sports Faces Market Challenges and Opportunities
- Significant Stock Decline: Genius Sports has seen its stock plummet over 59% since the beginning of 2026, primarily due to concerns over its acquisition costs and the broader software industry crisis, which has weakened investor confidence in its future potential.
- Prediction Market Potential: A report from Bernstein indicates that trading volume in prediction markets could swell to $1 trillion by 2030, with sports derivatives currently accounting for 60% of that market share, highlighting Genius's growth potential in this area.
- Growing Data Demand: As existing clients like DraftKings and FanDuel expand into prediction markets, Genius Sports' role as a data provider becomes increasingly crucial, potentially generating new revenue streams and reducing reliance on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- NFL's Influence: With the NFL being a major shareholder in Genius, its stance on prediction markets may soften before the 2026 season, which could enable Genius to leverage official NFL data, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Genius Sports Faces Fears of 'SaaSpocalypse' Amid Acquisition Concerns
- Significant Stock Decline: Genius Sports has seen its stock price plummet over 59% since the start of 2026 due to fears surrounding a software crisis and concerns about overpaying for acquisitions, which could lead to financing challenges and decreased market confidence.
- Underestimated Market Opportunities: Despite the pressure, analysts suggest that Genius Sports' potential in prediction markets is not fully appreciated, especially as trading volumes are projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, positioning Genius as a critical data provider could significantly enhance its market standing.
- Potential NFL Impact: As a major shareholder, the NFL's concerns about prediction markets could affect Genius's business development; however, if the NFL softens its stance before the 2026 season, it could open new revenue streams for Genius, further solidifying its market position.
- Evolving Competitive Landscape: Genius and Sportradar, as sports betting data providers, face competitive pressure from companies like DraftKings and FanDuel, which are actively expanding into prediction markets, necessitating Genius to accelerate innovation to maintain its competitive edge.
See More
Pac-12 Signs Comprehensive Deal with Genius Sports
- Pac-12 Partnership: The Pac-12 has signed a comprehensive deal with Genius Sports aimed at enhancing the viewer experience through data analytics and technological support, thereby strengthening the league's competitive position in the sports market.
- FIFA and YouTube Collaboration: FIFA has partnered with YouTube to make it the preferred streaming platform for the 2026 World Cup, which is expected to attract a younger audience and enhance the global visibility of the event.
- NHL Technology Upgrade: The NHL will install Cosm's C360 high-resolution cameras in all team venues, which will improve broadcast quality and provide viewers with a more immersive experience during games.
- Market Impact Analysis: These partnerships and technological investments not only enhance the market influence of each brand but may also drive future revenue growth by increasing viewer engagement and satisfaction.
See More
Lawsuit Filed Against Online Sports Betting Industry for Addiction Risks
- Lawsuit Background: The Public Health Advocacy Institute (PHAI) has filed a lawsuit against companies like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Genius Sports, alleging that their online sports betting platforms promote addiction through micro-betting, leading to significant consumer harm.
- NFL's Role: The lawsuit highlights that the NFL is not only a major shareholder in Genius Sports but also profits from licensing data, encouraging more individuals to engage in online betting, exacerbating addiction issues, with the NFL being the largest shareholder from 2021 to 2025 and currently the second-largest.
- Addiction Impact: The complaint states that online gambling is classified as an addiction similar to heroin, cocaine, and tobacco, with the U.S. sports betting market skyrocketing from $430 million in 2018 to $16.96 billion in 2025, underscoring the severity of gambling addiction.
- Legal Basis: Plaintiffs are suing under Pennsylvania's Unfair Trade Practices and Consumer Protection Law, holding DraftKings and FanDuel accountable for failing to warn the public about the dangerous nature of their products, emphasizing the need for consumer protection.
See More
Genius Sports: The Winner in Prediction Markets
- Market Potential: Genius Sports, dubbed the 'operating system of modern sport', provides essential data and analytics for sports wagering and prediction markets, and despite a 60% drop in stock price over the past year, its business model shows strong growth potential as prediction markets rise.
- Profitability Improvement: The company has achieved profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis, and as incremental revenue growth occurs, the bottom line is expected to be significantly impacted, especially with its adtech business poised to become a crucial segment of overall operations.
- Acquisition Impact: Genius announced a $900 million acquisition of sports media company Legend, which is expected to boost adjusted EBITDA from $190 million to $320 million and increase operating margin from 23% to 30%, greatly enhancing the company's profitability.
- Future Earnings Outlook: Analysts forecast earnings per share to reach $0.28 by 2027 and $0.60 by 2028, and with the stock currently trading near $4.50, there is substantial rebound potential for Genius Sports, making it an attractive long-term investment opportunity.
See More
Genius Sports Poised for a Turnaround Amid Market Trends
- Market Trend Analysis: Despite Genius Sports' shares dropping over 60% in the past year, the rise of prediction markets could signal a turning point for profitability, especially with the upcoming $900 million acquisition of Legend.
- Acquisition Impact: The acquisition is expected to boost Genius Sports' adjusted EBITDA from $190 million to $320 million and increase operating margins from 23% to 30%, significantly enhancing financial performance.
- Earnings Expectations: Analysts forecast earnings per share to reach $0.28 in 2027 and $0.60 in 2028, indicating strong growth potential, particularly with the stock currently trading near $4.50.
- Industry Position: As a
See More
Genius Sports Faces Market Challenges and Opportunities
- Significant Stock Decline: Genius Sports has seen its stock plummet over 59% since the beginning of 2026, primarily due to concerns over its acquisition costs and the broader software industry crisis, which has weakened investor confidence in its future potential.
- Prediction Market Potential: A report from Bernstein indicates that trading volume in prediction markets could swell to $1 trillion by 2030, with sports derivatives currently accounting for 60% of that market share, highlighting Genius's growth potential in this area.
- Growing Data Demand: As existing clients like DraftKings and FanDuel expand into prediction markets, Genius Sports' role as a data provider becomes increasingly crucial, potentially generating new revenue streams and reducing reliance on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- NFL's Influence: With the NFL being a major shareholder in Genius, its stance on prediction markets may soften before the 2026 season, which could enable Genius to leverage official NFL data, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Genius Sports Faces Fears of 'SaaSpocalypse' Amid Acquisition Concerns
- Significant Stock Decline: Genius Sports has seen its stock price plummet over 59% since the start of 2026 due to fears surrounding a software crisis and concerns about overpaying for acquisitions, which could lead to financing challenges and decreased market confidence.
- Underestimated Market Opportunities: Despite the pressure, analysts suggest that Genius Sports' potential in prediction markets is not fully appreciated, especially as trading volumes are projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, positioning Genius as a critical data provider could significantly enhance its market standing.
- Potential NFL Impact: As a major shareholder, the NFL's concerns about prediction markets could affect Genius's business development; however, if the NFL softens its stance before the 2026 season, it could open new revenue streams for Genius, further solidifying its market position.
- Evolving Competitive Landscape: Genius and Sportradar, as sports betting data providers, face competitive pressure from companies like DraftKings and FanDuel, which are actively expanding into prediction markets, necessitating Genius to accelerate innovation to maintain its competitive edge.
See More
Pac-12 Signs Comprehensive Deal with Genius Sports
- Pac-12 Partnership: The Pac-12 has signed a comprehensive deal with Genius Sports aimed at enhancing the viewer experience through data analytics and technological support, thereby strengthening the league's competitive position in the sports market.
- FIFA and YouTube Collaboration: FIFA has partnered with YouTube to make it the preferred streaming platform for the 2026 World Cup, which is expected to attract a younger audience and enhance the global visibility of the event.
- NHL Technology Upgrade: The NHL will install Cosm's C360 high-resolution cameras in all team venues, which will improve broadcast quality and provide viewers with a more immersive experience during games.
- Market Impact Analysis: These partnerships and technological investments not only enhance the market influence of each brand but may also drive future revenue growth by increasing viewer engagement and satisfaction.
See More
Lawsuit Filed Against Online Sports Betting Industry for Addiction Risks
- Lawsuit Background: The Public Health Advocacy Institute (PHAI) has filed a lawsuit against companies like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Genius Sports, alleging that their online sports betting platforms promote addiction through micro-betting, leading to significant consumer harm.
- NFL's Role: The lawsuit highlights that the NFL is not only a major shareholder in Genius Sports but also profits from licensing data, encouraging more individuals to engage in online betting, exacerbating addiction issues, with the NFL being the largest shareholder from 2021 to 2025 and currently the second-largest.
- Addiction Impact: The complaint states that online gambling is classified as an addiction similar to heroin, cocaine, and tobacco, with the U.S. sports betting market skyrocketing from $430 million in 2018 to $16.96 billion in 2025, underscoring the severity of gambling addiction.
- Legal Basis: Plaintiffs are suing under Pennsylvania's Unfair Trade Practices and Consumer Protection Law, holding DraftKings and FanDuel accountable for failing to warn the public about the dangerous nature of their products, emphasizing the need for consumer protection.
See More
