G Sachs Predicts Steady Supply and Demand for CN Commodities, Expresses Optimism for Cement and Coal
Goldman Sachs Commodity Report: Goldman Sachs predicts that China's commodity demand will stabilize in 2023, with growth rates between -1.3% and 2%, and a gradual recovery expected from the second half of 2025.
Market Dynamics: The report highlights stable supply-demand fundamentals and a favorable macro environment, but future price directions will depend on supply outlook changes influenced by themes like supply discipline, anti-involution, and mergers and acquisitions.
Commodity Outlook: The firm is optimistic about cement and coal, cautious about steel and aluminum, and maintains a positive outlook on copper and gold, while being cautious regarding lithium and paper packaging.
Stock Ratings: Various stocks in the commodities sector have been rated with adjustments, including downgrades for some steel companies and upgrades for coal and cement firms, reflecting the shifting market sentiments.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 00323
About the author
<BofAS Analysis> Ratings and Price Targets for Gold Mining Companies (Table)
Chinese Metal Stocks Performance: Several Chinese metal stocks, including Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, received "Buy" ratings with target price increases, while others like Chalco and Ganfeng Lithium saw declines in stock prices.
Short Selling Data: The short selling ratios for various stocks indicate significant market activity, with some stocks like Angang Steel experiencing high short selling ratios, suggesting bearish sentiment.
Chinese Cement and Glass Stocks: Cement stocks like Conch Cement maintained their "Buy" ratings despite minor price drops, while Xinyi Glass faced a notable decline in stock price and a "Buy" rating.
Chinese Solar and Battery Materials Stocks: Xinyi Solar was rated as "Underperform" with unchanged target prices, while Yunnan Energy received a "Buy" rating with a significant target price increase.
G Sachs: China's Steel Capacity Cuts Lag Behind Projections; Steel Stocks Anticipate Long-Term Profit Decline
China's Steel Industry Outlook: Goldman Sachs predicts a prolonged profit slump for Mainland steel mills due to slower capacity reduction and high steel exports, leading to moderate price improvements.
Earnings Forecast Adjustments: The firm has lowered earnings forecasts for BAO IRON and MAANSHAN IRON, while also anticipating deeper losses for ANGANG STEEL over the next two years.
Short Selling Activity: There is notable short selling activity in the steel sector, with significant amounts reported for BAO IRON, MAANSHAN IRON, and ANGANG STEEL.
Long-term Capacity Goals: Despite current challenges in meeting ultra-low emission standards, Goldman Sachs maintains that the long-term goal of reducing capacity in the steel industry remains achievable.
G Sachs Predicts Steady Supply and Demand for CN Commodities, Expresses Optimism for Cement and Coal
Goldman Sachs Commodity Report: Goldman Sachs predicts that China's commodity demand will stabilize in 2023, with growth rates between -1.3% and 2%, and a gradual recovery expected from the second half of 2025.
Market Dynamics: The report highlights stable supply-demand fundamentals and a favorable macro environment, but future price directions will depend on supply outlook changes influenced by themes like supply discipline, anti-involution, and mergers and acquisitions.
Commodity Outlook: The firm is optimistic about cement and coal, cautious about steel and aluminum, and maintains a positive outlook on copper and gold, while being cautious regarding lithium and paper packaging.
Stock Ratings: Various stocks in the commodities sector have been rated with adjustments, including downgrades for some steel companies and upgrades for coal and cement firms, reflecting the shifting market sentiments.
<Study> HSBC Research Evaluates Ratings and Target Prices for Raw Material Stocks (Table)
Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance with notable gains in sectors like copper and precious metals, while some stocks in the steel and cement sectors remained stable or declined slightly.
Short Selling Data: Significant short selling activity was observed across multiple stocks, with ratios indicating higher short interest in companies like CHINAHONGQIAO and ZIJIN MINING.
Analyst Ratings: Analysts provided ratings and target prices for several stocks, with recommendations to "Buy" for companies like CHINAHONGQIAO and ZIJIN MINING, while others like CMOC and MMG were rated as "Hold."
Market Insights: Reports suggest a cautious outlook in the auto sector, with recommendations for early positioning in select stocks like GEELY AUTO, reflecting broader market sentiments.
UBS Lowers MAANSHAN IRON Rating to Sell Due to Worries About Fourth Quarter Performance
Financial Performance: MAANSHAN IRON reported a net profit of RMB84 million for the first three quarters of 2025, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB2.535 billion in the same period last year.
Gross Profit Improvement: The company's gross profit per ton of steel increased to RMB180, benefiting from synergies with Baosteel, and has now aligned with industry standards after four years of underperformance.
Analyst Rating Changes: UBS raised its target price for MAANSHAN IRON from HKD1.9 to HKD2.35 but downgraded its rating from Neutral to Sell.
Market Activity: The stock experienced short selling of $6.81 million, with a short selling ratio of 12.107%.
<H Shrs>HSI Adds 56 Pts at Midday as Pharmas/ Casinos Gain; Game Stocks Boom
Market Performance: The HSI rose 0.3% to 24,799 points, with notable gains in tech stocks like TENCENT and XD INC, while BABA-W saw a slight decline despite launching a new model.
Sector Highlights: The gaming market in China experienced a 14% revenue increase, and various sectors including pharmaceuticals and casinos showed positive stock movements, with significant profit forecasts boosting share prices.
<BofAS Analysis> Ratings and Price Targets for Gold Mining Companies (Table)
Chinese Metal Stocks Performance: Several Chinese metal stocks, including Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, received "Buy" ratings with target price increases, while others like Chalco and Ganfeng Lithium saw declines in stock prices.
Short Selling Data: The short selling ratios for various stocks indicate significant market activity, with some stocks like Angang Steel experiencing high short selling ratios, suggesting bearish sentiment.
Chinese Cement and Glass Stocks: Cement stocks like Conch Cement maintained their "Buy" ratings despite minor price drops, while Xinyi Glass faced a notable decline in stock price and a "Buy" rating.
Chinese Solar and Battery Materials Stocks: Xinyi Solar was rated as "Underperform" with unchanged target prices, while Yunnan Energy received a "Buy" rating with a significant target price increase.
G Sachs: China's Steel Capacity Cuts Lag Behind Projections; Steel Stocks Anticipate Long-Term Profit Decline
China's Steel Industry Outlook: Goldman Sachs predicts a prolonged profit slump for Mainland steel mills due to slower capacity reduction and high steel exports, leading to moderate price improvements.
Earnings Forecast Adjustments: The firm has lowered earnings forecasts for BAO IRON and MAANSHAN IRON, while also anticipating deeper losses for ANGANG STEEL over the next two years.
Short Selling Activity: There is notable short selling activity in the steel sector, with significant amounts reported for BAO IRON, MAANSHAN IRON, and ANGANG STEEL.
Long-term Capacity Goals: Despite current challenges in meeting ultra-low emission standards, Goldman Sachs maintains that the long-term goal of reducing capacity in the steel industry remains achievable.
G Sachs Predicts Steady Supply and Demand for CN Commodities, Expresses Optimism for Cement and Coal
Goldman Sachs Commodity Report: Goldman Sachs predicts that China's commodity demand will stabilize in 2023, with growth rates between -1.3% and 2%, and a gradual recovery expected from the second half of 2025.
Market Dynamics: The report highlights stable supply-demand fundamentals and a favorable macro environment, but future price directions will depend on supply outlook changes influenced by themes like supply discipline, anti-involution, and mergers and acquisitions.
Commodity Outlook: The firm is optimistic about cement and coal, cautious about steel and aluminum, and maintains a positive outlook on copper and gold, while being cautious regarding lithium and paper packaging.
Stock Ratings: Various stocks in the commodities sector have been rated with adjustments, including downgrades for some steel companies and upgrades for coal and cement firms, reflecting the shifting market sentiments.
<Study> HSBC Research Evaluates Ratings and Target Prices for Raw Material Stocks (Table)
Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance with notable gains in sectors like copper and precious metals, while some stocks in the steel and cement sectors remained stable or declined slightly.
Short Selling Data: Significant short selling activity was observed across multiple stocks, with ratios indicating higher short interest in companies like CHINAHONGQIAO and ZIJIN MINING.
Analyst Ratings: Analysts provided ratings and target prices for several stocks, with recommendations to "Buy" for companies like CHINAHONGQIAO and ZIJIN MINING, while others like CMOC and MMG were rated as "Hold."
Market Insights: Reports suggest a cautious outlook in the auto sector, with recommendations for early positioning in select stocks like GEELY AUTO, reflecting broader market sentiments.
UBS Lowers MAANSHAN IRON Rating to Sell Due to Worries About Fourth Quarter Performance
Financial Performance: MAANSHAN IRON reported a net profit of RMB84 million for the first three quarters of 2025, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB2.535 billion in the same period last year.
Gross Profit Improvement: The company's gross profit per ton of steel increased to RMB180, benefiting from synergies with Baosteel, and has now aligned with industry standards after four years of underperformance.
Analyst Rating Changes: UBS raised its target price for MAANSHAN IRON from HKD1.9 to HKD2.35 but downgraded its rating from Neutral to Sell.
Market Activity: The stock experienced short selling of $6.81 million, with a short selling ratio of 12.107%.
<H Shrs>HSI Adds 56 Pts at Midday as Pharmas/ Casinos Gain; Game Stocks Boom
Market Performance: The HSI rose 0.3% to 24,799 points, with notable gains in tech stocks like TENCENT and XD INC, while BABA-W saw a slight decline despite launching a new model.
Sector Highlights: The gaming market in China experienced a 14% revenue increase, and various sectors including pharmaceuticals and casinos showed positive stock movements, with significant profit forecasts boosting share prices.
