China's Steel Industry Outlook: Goldman Sachs predicts a prolonged profit slump for Mainland steel mills due to slower capacity reduction and high steel exports, leading to moderate price improvements.
Earnings Forecast Adjustments: The firm has lowered earnings forecasts for BAO IRON and MAANSHAN IRON, while also anticipating deeper losses for ANGANG STEEL over the next two years.
Short Selling Activity: There is notable short selling activity in the steel sector, with significant amounts reported for BAO IRON, MAANSHAN IRON, and ANGANG STEEL.
Long-term Capacity Goals: Despite current challenges in meeting ultra-low emission standards, Goldman Sachs maintains that the long-term goal of reducing capacity in the steel industry remains achievable.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00323 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00323 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00323 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00323 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 2.440
Low
Averages
High
Current: 2.440
Low
Averages
High
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
to
Sell
maintain
Al Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
Al Analysis
2026-01-06
maintain
Neutral
to
Sell
Reason
The analyst rating from Goldman Sachs is influenced by several key factors regarding the outlook for Chinese commodities. The report indicates that China's commodity demand is expected to stabilize this year, with growth rates projected to range from -1.3% to 2%, gradually recovering in the second half of 2025.
The stability in supply-demand fundamentals and a favorable macro environment are also noted. However, the future direction of prices and profit margins will largely depend on marginal changes in the supply outlook, which will be shaped by three main themes: supply discipline and response, anti-involution, and mergers & acquisitions (M&A) along with asset injections.
For specific commodities, Goldman Sachs expresses a more optimistic outlook on cement and coal, while adopting a cautious stance on steel and aluminum. Their views on copper and gold remain positive, but they are cautious regarding lithium and paper packaging.
This nuanced perspective on individual commodities informs the investment ratings, with some stocks being upgraded or downgraded based on these assessments.
UBS
Neutral -> Sell
downgrade
2025-11-17
Reason
UBS
Price Target
2025-11-17
downgrade
Neutral -> Sell
Reason
The analyst rating for MAANSHAN IRON was downgraded from Neutral to Sell by UBS despite an improvement in financial performance, including a net profit of RMB84 million and a rise in gross profit per ton of steel. The downgrade is likely due to concerns about the sustainability of this performance and the company's ability to maintain its competitive position in the market after previously underperforming for four years. The increase in the target price from HKD1.9 to HKD2.35 suggests a recognition of potential value, but the overall rating reflects caution regarding future prospects.
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About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
